制造业产品质量需求测度及行业质量供需结构研究
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摘要
在产品质量供需结构错位的背景下,本文采用质量内生决定模型,基于2015～2017年制造业进口商品贸易指数的月度数据,测算了中国制造业及其细分行业层面的产品质量需求,并对其质量供需结构进行差异性分析。研究发现:整体层面,消费者对制造业细分行业的产品质量需求分别呈现"正U型"和"倒U型"结构,长期呈现周期性变动,整体趋势稳定增长。行业层面,消费者对劳动密集型行业的质量需求呈多层级,资源密集型行业的质量需求一般、技术密集型和资本密集型行业的质量需求高。企业质量供给能力整体落后于质量需求,仅4个行业处于低水平供需平衡,存在较大的进口依赖性。
In the background of the dislocation of the product quality and supply structure,this paper uses the quality endogenous decision model to calculate the product quality demand of the manufacturing industry in China. The data bases on the monthly data of 2015 ～ 2017 manufacturing import commodity trade index. Then,difference between quality supply and demand structure of manufacturing industry is also analyzed. The research finds: on the whole,the product quality demand of the manufacturing industry subdivides into the "positive U" and "inverted U" structure. In a long period of periodic changing,the overall trend is steadily increasing. On industry level,the consumer's quality demand for labor intensive industries is multilevel. The quality demand of the quality demand in the resource intensive industry is in general,and technology intensive and capital intensive industries is high. The quality and supply capacity of enterprises is lagging behind the quality demand. Only 4 industries are in a low level of supply and demand balance,and there is a large dependence on imports.
In the background of the dislocation of the product quality and supply structure,this paper uses the quality endogenous decision model to calculate the product quality demand of the manufacturing industry in China. The data bases on the monthly data of 2015 ～ 2017 manufacturing import commodity trade index. Then,difference between quality supply and demand structure of manufacturing industry is also analyzed. The research finds: on the whole,the product quality demand of the manufacturing industry subdivides into the "positive U" and "inverted U" structure. In a long period of periodic changing,the overall trend is steadily increasing. On industry level,the consumer's quality demand for labor intensive industries is multilevel. The quality demand of the quality demand in the resource intensive industry is in general,and technology intensive and capital intensive industries is high. The quality and supply capacity of enterprises is lagging behind the quality demand. Only 4 industries are in a low level of supply and demand balance,and there is a large dependence on imports.
引文
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[27] Hallak J C,Sivadasan J. Firms'Exporting Behavior Under Quality Constraints[R]. National Bureau of Economic Research,2009.
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[29] Gervais A. Product Quality and Firm Heterogeneity in International Trade[J]. Canadian Journal of Economics, 2015, 48(3):1152~1174.
[30]韩燕,钱春海. FDI对我国工业部门经济增长影响的差异性——基于要素密集度的行业分类研究[J].南开经济研究,2008,(5):143~152.
[31]陈欢,王燕.中国制造业技术进步演进特征及行业差异性研究[J].科学学研究,2015,33(6):859~867.
[2] United Nations Industrial Development Organization. Industrial Development Report 2018[R]. Vienna,2017.
[3] Shewhart W A. Economic Control of Quality of Manufactured Product[M]. New York Ean Nostrand,1931:37~54.
[4] Taguchi G,Konishi S. Taguchi Methods:Orthogonal Arrays and Linear Graphs. Tools for Quality Engineering[M]. Dearborn,MI:American Supplier Institute,1987:6~8.
[5] Crosby P B. Quality Is Free:The Art of Making Quality Certain[M]. Signet,1980:89~90.
[6] Juran J M. Juran on Planning for Quality[M]. Collier Macmillan,1988:7~25.
[7] Feigenbaum A V. Total Quality-control[J]. Harvard Business Review,1956,34(6):93~101.
[8] Ishikawa K. Guide to Quality Control[M]. Tokyo:Asian Productivity Organization,1982:29.
[9] Linder S B. An Essay on Trade and Transformation[J]. Journal of Political Economy,1961,(1):171~172.
[10] Aghion P,Howitt P. A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction[C]. Econometrica. University of Western Ontario,Department of Economics,1992:323~351.
[11]李志德.中国产品质量发展的长效机制研究[D].武汉:武汉大学,2012.
[12]李有.中美制造业双边贸易产品质量研究:2002~2012[J].当代财经,2014,(12):87~96.
[13]张伊依.中国制造业进口资本品的质量及其技术溢出效应研究[D].上海:华东师范大学,2017.
[14]施炳展.中国企业出口产品质量异质性:测度与事实[J].经济学(季刊),2014,13(1):263~284.
[15]施炳展,邵文波.中国企业出口产品质量测算及其决定因素——培育出口竞争新优势的微观视角[J].管理世界,2014,(9):90~106.
[16]施炳展,曾祥菲.中国企业进口产品质量测算与事实[J].世界经济,2015,38(3):57~77.
[17]马述忠,吴国杰.中间品进口、贸易类型与企业出口产品质量——基于中国企业微观数据的研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2016,(11):77~93.
[18]秦俊峰.德国制造长盛不衰的秘密[J].中国企业家,2013,(2):70~72.
[19]李金华.德国“工业4. 0”背景下中国制造强国的六大行动路径[J].南京社会科学,2016,(1):8~16.
[20]程虹.“中国制造2025”与“三大变革”[J].中国工业评论,2017,(12):58~63.
[21]王莉.德国工业4. 0对《中国制造2025》的创新驱动研究[J].科学管理研究,2017,35(5):100~103,107.
[22]郭歌.如何借鉴德国工业4. 0战略[J].中国高校科技,2017,(Z1):50~52.
[23]何桢,韩亚娟,张敏,等.企业管理创新、整合与精益六西格玛实施研究[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2008,(2):82~85,107.
[24]王娟丽,熊伟.基于QFD的产品创新设计方案评价模型研究[J].科技管理研究,2014,34(10):53~57.
[25]常志朋,程龙生,崔立志.基于马田系统的区间Choquet模糊积分多属性决策方法[J].控制与决策,2016,31(1):180~186.
[26]生志荣,程龙生,顾玉萍.基于控制图的马田系统马氏空间生成机理研究[J].数理统计与管理,2017,36(6):1059~1068.
[27] Hallak J C,Sivadasan J. Firms'Exporting Behavior Under Quality Constraints[R]. National Bureau of Economic Research,2009.
[28] Roberts M J,Xu D Y,Fan X,et al. A Structural Model of Demand,Cost,and Export Market Selection for Chinese Footwear Producers[R]. NBER Working Paper Series,2012:17725.
[29] Gervais A. Product Quality and Firm Heterogeneity in International Trade[J]. Canadian Journal of Economics, 2015, 48(3):1152~1174.
[30]韩燕,钱春海. FDI对我国工业部门经济增长影响的差异性——基于要素密集度的行业分类研究[J].南开经济研究,2008,(5):143~152.
[31]陈欢,王燕.中国制造业技术进步演进特征及行业差异性研究[J].科学学研究,2015,33(6):859~867.