基于CUACE模式的合肥地区空气质量预报效果检验
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摘要
为了检验CUACE模式指导产品在合肥地区的预报性能,本文利用合肥地区PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、O_3监测资料对中国气象局下发的2014年3月至2015年2月合肥地区空气质量CUACE模式指导产品的预报效果进行了检验。结果表明:2014年3月至2015年2月合肥地区CUACE模式指导产品AQI和PM2.5浓度的预报值接近实测值,PM_(10)浓度预报值略小于实测值,O_3浓度的预报值明显偏大,但O_3浓度的预报值与实测值相关性最好,AQI、PM_(2.5)浓度和PM_(10)浓度预报值与实测值之间的相关系数均为0.3—0.4。实测空气质量等级为良时,CUACE模式空气质量等级预报的TS评分最高,漏报率和空报率最小;实测首要污染物为PM_(2.5)时,CUACE模式首要污染预报TS评分最高,漏报率和空报率最小。CUACE模式的预报性能并未随预报时效的延长而降低,CUACE模式指导产品总体预报效果较好,可为合肥市空气质量预报提供指导。
In order to evaluate the prediction performance of guide products of the CUACE model in Hefei,the observed data were used to verify the guide products from March 2014 to February 2015. The results showthat the forecasting AQI and PM_(2.5)concentrations by CUACE model are close to the observed values over Hefei,however,the forecasting concentrations of PM_(10) are slightly lower than the observed values while those of O3 are significantly higher than the observed values. However,the correlation coefficient between forecasting and observed concentrations of O_3 is relatively high and those of AQI,PM_(2.5)and PM_(10) are just between 0.3 and 0.4. When observed air quality level is " moderate",the TS score of forecasting air quality level reaches the peak. When he primary pollutant is PM_(2.5),the rates of false alarm and missing report both become minimum. The prediction performance of CUACE doesn't decrease with the extension of the forecasting period. Due to its reasonably good prediction performance,the CUACE model can be used to provide some reference and help for the air quality forecast in Hefei city.
In order to evaluate the prediction performance of guide products of the CUACE model in Hefei,the observed data were used to verify the guide products from March 2014 to February 2015. The results showthat the forecasting AQI and PM_(2.5)concentrations by CUACE model are close to the observed values over Hefei,however,the forecasting concentrations of PM_(10) are slightly lower than the observed values while those of O3 are significantly higher than the observed values. However,the correlation coefficient between forecasting and observed concentrations of O_3 is relatively high and those of AQI,PM_(2.5)and PM_(10) are just between 0.3 and 0.4. When observed air quality level is " moderate",the TS score of forecasting air quality level reaches the peak. When he primary pollutant is PM_(2.5),the rates of false alarm and missing report both become minimum. The prediction performance of CUACE doesn't decrease with the extension of the forecasting period. Due to its reasonably good prediction performance,the CUACE model can be used to provide some reference and help for the air quality forecast in Hefei city.
引文
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[16]龚山陵,张小曳,周春红,等.化学天气预报系统CUACE及在中国区域灰霾预报中的应用[C]//中国气象学会.第26届中国气象学会年会大气成分与天气气候及环境变化分会场论文集.杭州,2009.
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[18]肖明静,盛春岩,石春玲,等.2010年汛期多模式对山东降水预报的检验[J].气象与环境学报,2013,29(2):27-33.
[19]杨关盈,樊曙先,汤洁,等.临安近地面臭氧变化特征分析[J].环境科学研究,2008,21(3):31-35.
[2]Schaefer J T.The critical success index as an indicator of w arning skill[J].Weather and Forecasting,1990,5(4):570-575.
[3]Cui B,Toth Z,Zhu Y J,et al.Bias correction for global ensemble forecast[J].Weather and Forecasting,2012,27(2):396-410.
[4]Carter G M,Dallavalle J P,Glahn H R.Statistical forecasts based on the national meteorological center's numerical w eather prediction system[J].Weather and Forecasting,1989,4(3):401-412.
[5]石春娥,吴照宪,邓学良,等.MM5与MM5-PAFOG模式区域雾预报效果评估比较[J].高原气象,2013,32(5):1349-1359.
[6]张冰,魏建苏,裴海瑛.2006年T213模式在江苏的降水和温度检验评估[J].气象科学,2008,28(4):468-472.
[7]吴秋霞,史历,翁永辉,等.AREMS/973模式系统对2004年中国汛期降水实时预报检验[J].大气科学,2007,31(2):298-310.
[8]公颖,林春泽,李俊.AREM模式预报体系对2010年5月我国南方连续暴雨过程预报效果评估[J].暴雨灾害,2010,29(4):356-362,376.
[9]张宁娜,黄阁,吴曼丽,等.2010年国内外3种数值预报在东北地区的预报检验[J].气象与环境学报,2012,28(2):28-33.
[10]王宏,冯宏芳,石钰,等.CAPPS3模式在福州市预报效果检验[J].气象与环境学报,2011,27(4):25-29.
[11]刘宁微,马雁军,王扬锋.城市空气污染预报系统CAPPS 2.0在辽宁的应用及检验[J].气象科学,2007,27(6):691-694.
[12]陈静,范引琪,李杰.CAPPS模式在石家庄市应用的效果检验[J].气象与环境学报,2008,24(2):23-27.
[13]谢敏,钟流举,陈焕盛,等.CMAQ模式及其修正预报在珠三角区域的应用检验[J].环境科学与技术,2012,35(2):96-101
[14]许建明,徐祥德,刘煜,等.CMAQ-MOS区域空气质量统计修正模型预报途径研究[J].中国科学D辑:地球科学,2005,35(Z1):131-144.
[15]陈彬彬,林长城,杨凯,等.基于CMAQ模式产品的福州市空气质量预报系统[J].中国环境科学,2012,32(10):1744-1752.
[16]龚山陵,张小曳,周春红,等.化学天气预报系统CUACE及在中国区域灰霾预报中的应用[C]//中国气象学会.第26届中国气象学会年会大气成分与天气气候及环境变化分会场论文集.杭州,2009.
[17]周春红,张小曳,龚山陵.区域灰霾数值预报系统的初步研发[C]//中国气象学会.中国气象学会2007年年会大气成分观测、研究与预报分会场论文集.广州,2007.
[18]肖明静,盛春岩,石春玲,等.2010年汛期多模式对山东降水预报的检验[J].气象与环境学报,2013,29(2):27-33.
[19]杨关盈,樊曙先,汤洁,等.临安近地面臭氧变化特征分析[J].环境科学研究,2008,21(3):31-35.