地铁盾构施工人因可靠性分析的加权模糊CREAM模型
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摘要
针对地铁盾构施工风险评估中人因可靠性分析(HRA)问题,构建了一种加权模糊CREAM模型.首先,利用复相关性分析和证据理论确定共同绩效条件因子(CPC)的合理权重.其次,基于现行规范编制CPC评价细则,利用统计方法得到了CPC水平隶属函数.在此基础上,提出将离散基本控制模式图连续化的方法,建立了地铁盾构施工人因失误概率(HEP)点估计值预测模型,通过4条公理验证了模型的合理性和可靠性.结果表明:加权模糊CREAM模型将权重引入到CPC效应值计算和HEP推理中,能更好地反映不同CPC因子对人行为绩效的影响,可为地铁盾构施工HRA提供定量评估数据.
To overcome the difficulties of human reliability analysis in risk assessment for shield tunneling,this paper proposes a weighted fuzzy cognitive reliability and error analysis method(CREAM)model. First,the reasonable weight of common performance conditions(CPCs)is obtained by multiple correlation analysis and evidence theory.Second,the specification evaluation rules for CPCs are established based on the current standard,and the membership function for each level of CPCs is obtained by statistical method. On this basis,a continuum technique for the discrete basic diagram for control mode is proposed,and an estimate model,which can be used to determine the human error probability(HEP)in the construction of shield-driven tunnel,is established. Then,the rationality and reliability of the model are verified by four axioms. Results show that the method of introducing the weight into the calculation of the expected CPC effect and the HEP reasoning in the weighted fuzzy CREAM model can better reflect the effect of CPCs on human performance. This model can also provide a reference for quantitative HRA in shield tunneling of subways.
To overcome the difficulties of human reliability analysis in risk assessment for shield tunneling,this paper proposes a weighted fuzzy cognitive reliability and error analysis method(CREAM)model. First,the reasonable weight of common performance conditions(CPCs)is obtained by multiple correlation analysis and evidence theory.Second,the specification evaluation rules for CPCs are established based on the current standard,and the membership function for each level of CPCs is obtained by statistical method. On this basis,a continuum technique for the discrete basic diagram for control mode is proposed,and an estimate model,which can be used to determine the human error probability(HEP)in the construction of shield-driven tunnel,is established. Then,the rationality and reliability of the model are verified by four axioms. Results show that the method of introducing the weight into the calculation of the expected CPC effect and the HEP reasoning in the weighted fuzzy CREAM model can better reflect the effect of CPCs on human performance. This model can also provide a reference for quantitative HRA in shield tunneling of subways.
引文
[1]钱七虎,戎晓力.中国地下工程安全风险管理的现状、问题及相关建议[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(4):649-655.Qian Qihu,Rong Xiaoli.State,issues and relevant recommendations for security risk management of China underground engineering[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2008,27(4):649-655(in Chinese).
[2]郑新定,王红卫,周健.考虑人为因素的盾构隧道风险分析和控制模型研究[J].隧道建设,2013,33(9):720-725.Zheng Xinding,Wang Hongwei,Zhou Jian.Risk analysis and control model for shield tunnel based on human factors[J].Tunnel Construction,2013,33(9):720-725(in Chinese).
[3]邵根大.杭州地铁工地坍塌事故的警示[J].现代城市轨道交通,2009(1):1-3.Shao Genda.Warning of collapse accident of construction site in Hangzhou metro[J].Modern Urban Transit,2009(1):1-3(in Chinese).
[4]周志鹏,李启明,邓小鹏,等.基于事故机理和管理因素的地铁坍塌事故分析--以杭州地铁坍塌事故为实证[J].中国安全科学学报,2009,19(9):139-145.Zhou Zhipeng,Li Qiming,Deng Xiaopeng,et al.Analysis of metro collapse accidents based on accident mechanism and management factors:With the collapse of Hangzhou metro as an example[J].China Safety Science Journal,2009,19(9):139-145(in Chinese).
[5]Swain A D,Guttman H E.Handbook of Human Reliability Analysis with Emphasis on Nuclear Power Plant Applications[R].Washington DC:US Nuclear Regulatory Commission,1982.
[6]Haney L N,Blackman H S,Bell B J,et al.Comparison and Application of Quantitative Human Reliability Analysis Methods for the Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program(RMIEP):Final Report[R].Specific Nuclear Reactors&Associated Plants,1989.
[7]Hollnagel E.Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method[M].Oxford:Elsevier,1998.
[8]Akyuz E,Celik M.Application of cream human reliability model to cargo loading process of LPG tankers[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2015,34:39-48.
[9]柴松,余建星,杜尊峰,等.海洋工程人因可靠性定量分析方法与应用[J].天津大学学报,2011,44(10):914-919.Chai Song,Yu Jianxing,Du Zunfeng,et al.Quantitative human reliability analysis methods and application of offshore engineering[J].Journal of Tianjin University,2011,44(10):914-919(in Chinese).
[10]Calhoun J,Savoie C,Randolph-Gips M,et al.Human reliability analysis in spaceflight applications,part 2:Modified CREAM for spaceflight[J].Quality&Reliability Engineering International,2014,30(1):3-12.
[11]Fujita Y,Hollnagel E.Failures without errors:Quantification of context in HRA[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2004,83(2):145-151.
[12]He X,Wang Y,Shen Z,et al.A simplified CREAMprospective quantification process and its application[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2008,93(2):298-306.
[13]Sun Z,Li Z,Gong E,et al.Estimating human error probability using a modified CREAM[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2012,100:28-32.
[14]Konstandinidou M,Nivolianitou Z,Kiranoudis C,et al.A fuzzy modeling application of CREAM methodology for human reliability analysis[J].Reliability Engi neering&System Safety,2006,91(6):706-716.
[15]Marseguerra M,Zio E,Librizzi M.Human reliability analysis by fuzzy“CREAM”[J].Risk Analysis,2010,27(1):137-154.
[16]Ung S T.A weighted CREAM model for maritime human reliability analysis[J].Safety Science,2015,72:144-152.
[17]Baziuk P A,Rivera S S.Fuzzy human reliability analysis:Applications and contributions review[J].Advances in Fuzzy Systems,2016(3):1-9.
[18]Yang Z L,Bonsall S,Wall A,et al.A modified CREAM to human reliability quantification in marine engineering[J].Ocean Engineering,2013,58(1):293-303.
[19]杨宇.多指标综合评价中赋权方法评析[J].统计与决策,2006(13):17-19.Yang Yu.Analysis on determining weight method in multi-index comprehensive evaluation[J].Statistics and Decision,2006(13):17-19(in Chinese).
[20]Yang J B,Singh M G.An evidential reasoning approach for multiple-attribute decision making with uncertainty[J].IEEE Transactions on Systems Man&Cybernetics,1994,24(1):1-18.
[21]GB 50715-2011地铁工程施工安全评价标准[S].北京:中国计划出版社,2011.GB 50715-2011 Standard for Construction Safety Assessment of Metro Engineering[S].Beijing:China Planning Press,2011(in Chinese).
[22]GB 50652-2011城市轨道交通地下工程风险管理规范[S].北京:中国计划出版社,2011.GB 50652-2011 Code for Risk Management of Underground Works in Urban Rail Transit[S].Beijing:China Planning Press,2011(in Chinese).
[23]GB 50446-2017盾构法隧道施工与验收规范[S].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2017.GB 50446-2017 Code for Construction and Acceptance of Shield Tunneling Method[S].Beijing:China Architecture&Building Press,2017(in Chinese).
[24]Liu J,Yang J,Jin W,et al.Engineering system safety analysis and synthesis using fuzzy rule-based evidential reasoning approach[J].Quality&Reliability Engineering International,2010,21(4):387-411.
[25]Yang Z L,Wang J,Bonsall S,et al.Use of fuzzy evidential reasoning in maritime security assessment[J].Risk Analysis,2010,29(1):95-120.
[26]Wickens C D,Lee J,Liu Y D,et al.Introduction to Human Factors Engineering[M].2nd ed.New Jersey:Prentice-Hall Inc,2003.
[2]郑新定,王红卫,周健.考虑人为因素的盾构隧道风险分析和控制模型研究[J].隧道建设,2013,33(9):720-725.Zheng Xinding,Wang Hongwei,Zhou Jian.Risk analysis and control model for shield tunnel based on human factors[J].Tunnel Construction,2013,33(9):720-725(in Chinese).
[3]邵根大.杭州地铁工地坍塌事故的警示[J].现代城市轨道交通,2009(1):1-3.Shao Genda.Warning of collapse accident of construction site in Hangzhou metro[J].Modern Urban Transit,2009(1):1-3(in Chinese).
[4]周志鹏,李启明,邓小鹏,等.基于事故机理和管理因素的地铁坍塌事故分析--以杭州地铁坍塌事故为实证[J].中国安全科学学报,2009,19(9):139-145.Zhou Zhipeng,Li Qiming,Deng Xiaopeng,et al.Analysis of metro collapse accidents based on accident mechanism and management factors:With the collapse of Hangzhou metro as an example[J].China Safety Science Journal,2009,19(9):139-145(in Chinese).
[5]Swain A D,Guttman H E.Handbook of Human Reliability Analysis with Emphasis on Nuclear Power Plant Applications[R].Washington DC:US Nuclear Regulatory Commission,1982.
[6]Haney L N,Blackman H S,Bell B J,et al.Comparison and Application of Quantitative Human Reliability Analysis Methods for the Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program(RMIEP):Final Report[R].Specific Nuclear Reactors&Associated Plants,1989.
[7]Hollnagel E.Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method[M].Oxford:Elsevier,1998.
[8]Akyuz E,Celik M.Application of cream human reliability model to cargo loading process of LPG tankers[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2015,34:39-48.
[9]柴松,余建星,杜尊峰,等.海洋工程人因可靠性定量分析方法与应用[J].天津大学学报,2011,44(10):914-919.Chai Song,Yu Jianxing,Du Zunfeng,et al.Quantitative human reliability analysis methods and application of offshore engineering[J].Journal of Tianjin University,2011,44(10):914-919(in Chinese).
[10]Calhoun J,Savoie C,Randolph-Gips M,et al.Human reliability analysis in spaceflight applications,part 2:Modified CREAM for spaceflight[J].Quality&Reliability Engineering International,2014,30(1):3-12.
[11]Fujita Y,Hollnagel E.Failures without errors:Quantification of context in HRA[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2004,83(2):145-151.
[12]He X,Wang Y,Shen Z,et al.A simplified CREAMprospective quantification process and its application[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2008,93(2):298-306.
[13]Sun Z,Li Z,Gong E,et al.Estimating human error probability using a modified CREAM[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2012,100:28-32.
[14]Konstandinidou M,Nivolianitou Z,Kiranoudis C,et al.A fuzzy modeling application of CREAM methodology for human reliability analysis[J].Reliability Engi neering&System Safety,2006,91(6):706-716.
[15]Marseguerra M,Zio E,Librizzi M.Human reliability analysis by fuzzy“CREAM”[J].Risk Analysis,2010,27(1):137-154.
[16]Ung S T.A weighted CREAM model for maritime human reliability analysis[J].Safety Science,2015,72:144-152.
[17]Baziuk P A,Rivera S S.Fuzzy human reliability analysis:Applications and contributions review[J].Advances in Fuzzy Systems,2016(3):1-9.
[18]Yang Z L,Bonsall S,Wall A,et al.A modified CREAM to human reliability quantification in marine engineering[J].Ocean Engineering,2013,58(1):293-303.
[19]杨宇.多指标综合评价中赋权方法评析[J].统计与决策,2006(13):17-19.Yang Yu.Analysis on determining weight method in multi-index comprehensive evaluation[J].Statistics and Decision,2006(13):17-19(in Chinese).
[20]Yang J B,Singh M G.An evidential reasoning approach for multiple-attribute decision making with uncertainty[J].IEEE Transactions on Systems Man&Cybernetics,1994,24(1):1-18.
[21]GB 50715-2011地铁工程施工安全评价标准[S].北京:中国计划出版社,2011.GB 50715-2011 Standard for Construction Safety Assessment of Metro Engineering[S].Beijing:China Planning Press,2011(in Chinese).
[22]GB 50652-2011城市轨道交通地下工程风险管理规范[S].北京:中国计划出版社,2011.GB 50652-2011 Code for Risk Management of Underground Works in Urban Rail Transit[S].Beijing:China Planning Press,2011(in Chinese).
[23]GB 50446-2017盾构法隧道施工与验收规范[S].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2017.GB 50446-2017 Code for Construction and Acceptance of Shield Tunneling Method[S].Beijing:China Architecture&Building Press,2017(in Chinese).
[24]Liu J,Yang J,Jin W,et al.Engineering system safety analysis and synthesis using fuzzy rule-based evidential reasoning approach[J].Quality&Reliability Engineering International,2010,21(4):387-411.
[25]Yang Z L,Wang J,Bonsall S,et al.Use of fuzzy evidential reasoning in maritime security assessment[J].Risk Analysis,2010,29(1):95-120.
[26]Wickens C D,Lee J,Liu Y D,et al.Introduction to Human Factors Engineering[M].2nd ed.New Jersey:Prentice-Hall Inc,2003.