西藏高原冬虫夏草产区气候变化特征分析
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摘要
了解西藏高原冬虫夏草产区气候变化对当地冬虫夏草资源可持续利用和生态环境保护十分重要。本文利用产区24个气象站1981—2015年的气温、降水、日照资料,采用线性趋势分析、Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法,对产区气温、降水和日照的变化时空特征进行了分析,并集合平均5种气候模式在RCP4.5、RCP8.5两种情景下对产区未来年平均气温和年降水量进行了模拟预估。结果表明:近35年产区年平均气温表现为明显的升高趋势,冬春季升温最为显著,其次为夏秋季;雨季平均气温升温率小于年平均气温升温率。年和雨季的平均最高气温、平均最低气温均呈显著升高趋势,绝大部分站点的年、雨季平均最低气温升温率和平均最高气温升温率均明显大于同期平均气温升温率。年降水量大部分站点为增加趋势,但地区差异性较大;年平均日照时数和雨季日照时数均表现为明显的减少趋势。预估表明产区21世纪未来不同时段气候均表现为气温升高,降水增多的暖湿化发展趋势。未来冬虫夏草适宜海拔下限直接抬升将导致适宜区范围缩小,气候变化将对冬虫夏草的产生和生长造成严重威胁。
It is very important to understand the climate change about distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus for the local ecological environment protection and the sustainable use of Ophiocordyceps sinensis in Tibet. In this paper, temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours data of 24 weather stations in the distribution area from 1981 to 2015 were analyzed with linear trend analysis, Mann-Kendall break detector based on the average annual temperature, average rainy season temperature, annual precipitation and rainy season precipitation and other data. Climate model simulation was used to estimate average annual temperature and annual precipitation in the future under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the distribution area. The results showed that the average annual temperature of O. sinensis in Tibet has been increasing significantly, and the warming rate in the rainy season is lower than the annual warming rate. The warming is more significant in winter or spring than summer and autumn. Simultaneously, the average maximum temperature and average minimum temperature in the annual and rainy seasons showed a significant increase trend, and the warming rate had obvious regional characteristics. The increase rates of average annual minimum temperature and average annual maximum temperature in most stations are significantly greater than the increase rate of average annual temperature. The annual rainfall is increasing at most sites, but there are large regional differences, and it was found that the annual average sunshine hours and the rainy season hours showed significant reduction trend. It is estimated that the temperature in different areas in this century will increase significantly and precipitation will increase in different periods in the future. With the local climate warming and humidity, the suitable range of elevation of O. sinensis will rise. However, There is no suitable living condition for it, the lower limit of elevation will rise directly, and the range of suitable O.sinensis will be reduced to pose a serious threat to the inducement and growth of O. sinensis.
It is very important to understand the climate change about distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus for the local ecological environment protection and the sustainable use of Ophiocordyceps sinensis in Tibet. In this paper, temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours data of 24 weather stations in the distribution area from 1981 to 2015 were analyzed with linear trend analysis, Mann-Kendall break detector based on the average annual temperature, average rainy season temperature, annual precipitation and rainy season precipitation and other data. Climate model simulation was used to estimate average annual temperature and annual precipitation in the future under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the distribution area. The results showed that the average annual temperature of O. sinensis in Tibet has been increasing significantly, and the warming rate in the rainy season is lower than the annual warming rate. The warming is more significant in winter or spring than summer and autumn. Simultaneously, the average maximum temperature and average minimum temperature in the annual and rainy seasons showed a significant increase trend, and the warming rate had obvious regional characteristics. The increase rates of average annual minimum temperature and average annual maximum temperature in most stations are significantly greater than the increase rate of average annual temperature. The annual rainfall is increasing at most sites, but there are large regional differences, and it was found that the annual average sunshine hours and the rainy season hours showed significant reduction trend. It is estimated that the temperature in different areas in this century will increase significantly and precipitation will increase in different periods in the future. With the local climate warming and humidity, the suitable range of elevation of O. sinensis will rise. However, There is no suitable living condition for it, the lower limit of elevation will rise directly, and the range of suitable O.sinensis will be reduced to pose a serious threat to the inducement and growth of O. sinensis.
引文
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[2]周刊社,张建春,黄晓清,等.西藏高原冬虫夏草资源适性区划分析[J].生态学报,2018,38(8):2768-2779.[Zhou K S,Zhang JC,Huang X Q,et al.Suitability and regionalization of Cordyceps sinensis in Tibetan Plateau[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2018,38(8):2768-2779.]
[3]陈仕江,尹定华,李黎,等.西藏那曲地区冬虫夏草资源及分布[J].中药材,2000,23(11):673-675.[Chen S J,Yin D H,Li L,et al.Resources and distribution of Cordyceps sinensis in Naqu Tibet[J].Journal of Chinese Medicinal Materials,2000,23(11):673-675.]
[4]沈发荣,杨跃雄,杨大荣,等.云南的冬虫夏草初步研究[J].微生物学通报,1988(2):3-5.[Shen F R,Yang Y X,Yang D R,et al.Preliminary investigation of Cordyceps sinensis in Yunnan[J].Microbiology,1988(2):3-5.]
[5]刁治民.青海冬虫夏草资源及生物学特性的初步研究[J].生物学杂志,1996,13(2):21-22.[Diao Z M.Preliminary studies of resource and biology of Cordyceps sinensis in Qinghai Province[J].Journal of Biology,1996,13(2):21-22.]
[6]刘兆红,李玉玲.玉树州冬虫夏草资源与分布[J].草业与畜牧,2006(12):34-36.[Liu Z H,Liu Y L.Resources and distribution of Cordyceps sinensis in Yushu[J].Prataculture and Animal Husbandry,2006,(12):34-36.]
[7]杨大荣,彭艳琼,陈吉岳,等.中国冬虫夏草分布格局与环境变化对其分布的影响[J].中国草地学报,20l0,增刊:22-27.[Yang D R,Peng Y Q,Chen J Y,et al.The distribution pattern of Cordyceps sinensis in China and the response to environmental changes[J].Chinese Journal of Grassland,2010,32(S1),22-27.]
[8]陈仕江,钟国跃,马开森,等.冬虫夏草资源可持续利用的思考[J].中国草地学报,2010,32(s1):44-47.[Chen S J,Zhong G Y,Ma K S,et al.Thinking of the sustainable utilization of Cordyceps sinensis resources[J].Chinese Journal of Grassland,2010,32(s1):44-47.]
[9]周东平.经济聚焦:冬虫夏草,如何把“根”留住[EB/OL].人民网-《人民日报》,2010-7-27.http://cpc.people.com.cn/GB/64093/64387/12256253.html.[Zhou D P.Cordyceps sinensis significantly reduced in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,how to retain the"root"[EB/OL],2010-7-27.http://cpc.people.com.n/GB/64093/64387/12256253.html.]
[10]Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2011.
[11]唐国利,任国玉.近百年中国地表气温变化趋势的再分析[J].气候与环境研究,2005,10(4):791-798.[Tang G L,Ren G Y.Reanalysis of Surface Air Temperature Change of the Last 100 Years over China[J].Climatic&Environmental Research,2005,10(4):791-798.]
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[13]杜军.西藏高原近40年的气温变化[J].地理学报,2001,56(6):682-690.[Du J.Change of temperature in Tibetan Plateau from1961 to 2000[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2001,56(6):682-690.]
[14]Beniston M,Rebetez M.Regional behavior of minimum temperatures in Switzerland for the period 1979-1993[J].Theoretical and Applied Climatology.1996,53:231-244.
[15]Liu X D,Chen B D.Climatic warming in the Tibetan Plateau during recent decades[J].International Journal of Climatology,2000,20(14):1729-1742.
[16]中国气象局气候变化中心.气候变化监测公报[M].北京:科学出版社,2016:63-65.[Climate change center of China meteorological administration.Climate change monitoring bulletin[M].Beijing:Science Press,2016:63-65.]
[17]杜军,建军,洪健昌,等.1961-2010年西藏季节性冻土对气候变化的响应[J].冰川冻土,2012,34(3):512-521.[Du J,Jian J,Hong J C,et al.Response of seasonal frozen soil to climate change on Tibet region from 1961 to 2010[J].Journal of Glaciology&Geocryology,2012,34(3):512-521.]
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[20]姜大膀,富元海.2℃全球变暖背景下中国未来气候变化预估[J].大气科学,2012,36(2):234-246.[Jiang D B,Fu Y H.Climate change over China with a 2℃global warming[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2012,36(2):234-246.]
[21]郭相,刘蓓,马绍宾,等.云南冬虫夏草生态环境调查及生物学特性分析[J].中国食用菌,2008,27(6):8-11.[Guo X,Liu B,Ma S B,et al.The ecological environmental investigation and biological characteristic analysis of Codyceps sinensis in Yunnan Province[J].Edible Fungi of China,2008,27(6):8-11.]
[22]李晖,王立辉.西藏冬虫夏草生境的气候[J].西藏科技,2011(6):68-71.[Li H,Wang L H.The climate of Chinese Caterpillar Fungusin Tibet[J].Tibet Science and Technology,2011(6):68-71.]
[23]张古忍,余俊锋,吴光国,等.冬虫夏草发生的影响因子[J].生态学报,2011,31(14):4117-4125.[Zhang G R,Yu J F,WU G G,et al.Factors influencing the occurrence of Ophiocordyceps sinensis[J].ActaEcologica Sinica,2011,31(14):4117-4125.]
[24]于斌,冯凤英,梁留科,等.冬虫夏草的生境及其氨基酸含量分析[J].干旱区研究,2012,29(5):791-796.[Yu B,Feng F Y,Liang L K,et al.Analysis on habitat and amino acid content of Cordyceps sinensis[J].Arid Zone Research,2012,29(5):791-796.]
[25]杜军.西藏高原最高、最低气温的非对称变化[J].应用气象学报,2003,14(4):437-444.[Du J.Using the data of monthly mean temperature,maximum and minimum temperature in Tibetan Plateau from 1971 to 2000[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2003,14(4):437-444.]
[26]杜军,马玉才.西藏高原降水变化趋势的气候分析[J].地理学报,2004,59(3):375-382.[Du J,Ma Y C.Climatic trend of rainfall over Tibetan Plateau from 1971 to 2000[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2004,59(3):375-382.]
[27]张核真,唐小萍,普布卓玛.近46年西藏高原昼夜降水变化趋势[J].气象科技,2010,38(2):205-208.[Zhang H Z,Tang X P,Pu B Z M.Trends of day/night precipitation in Tibet Plateau in recent 46 years[J].Meteorological Science&Technology,2010,38(2):205-208.]
[28]杨春艳,沈渭寿,林乃峰.西藏高原近50年气温和降水时空变化特征研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(12):167-172.[Yang C Y,Shen W S,Lin N F.Temp-spatial changes of temperature and precipitation over the Tibet Plateau during the last 50years[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources&Environment,2013,27(12):167-172.]
[29]Vuuren D P V,Edmonds J,Kainuma M,et al.The representative concentration pathways:an overview[J].Climatic Change,2011,109(1-2):5-31.
[30]Taylor K E,Stouffer R J,Meehl G A.An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2011,93(4):485-498.
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