基于数值模拟的2015年11月东北极端重污染过程成因的定量评估
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摘要
2015年11月中上旬,我国东北地区经历了一系列连续重污染过程,其污染程度之高、影响范围之广、持续时间之长历史罕见.本文综合利用空气质量监测资料、遥感卫星资料、数值模式等方法手段探究了此次连续重污染事件的成因,并运用敏感性分析方法首次定量评估了各污染原因对PM_(2.5)浓度的贡献比重.结果表明,受阻塞高压控制、中低层强逆温、地面高湿度低风速等不利扩散条件可使PM_(2.5)浓度在污染过程中升高30%~50%;采暖季污染排放显著增强可使PM_(2.5)浓度整体升高100~200μg·m~(-3),重污染过程中对局部地区贡献达50%~70%;污染传输通道上游捕捉到的秸秆焚烧也可使局部地区PM_(2.5)浓度增加75~100μg·m~(-3),对PM_(2.5)浓度的平均贡献率为10%~20%.研究表明,不利扩散条件、采暖季污染源的加强排放及冬季的秸秆焚烧是引发此次高浓度PM_(2.5)的三大原因.本研究可为我国东北地区大气污染问题治理提供有益参考,也可帮助民众认知污染成因.
In November 2015,Northeast China( NEC) has experienced a series of severe air pollution episodes with intense pollution level,large coverage and long durations. In this paper,air quality monitoring,remote sensing satellite data,numerical model and sensitivity method were employed to investigate the sources and formation mechanism of the severe air pollution episodes. The results indicated that NEC was controlled by high-pressure pattern with strong inversion in the lower atmosphere and smaller near-surface wind speed and high relative humidity( > 80%). The above extreme adverse diffusion conditions increased PM_(2.5)concentration by 30% ~ 50% based on the evaluation of numerical model. In addition,coal combustion in heating season significantly increased the overall PM_(2.5)by 100 ~ 200 μg·m~(-3),and contributed to 50% ~70% of PM_(2.5)concentrations in some areas. Meanwhile,biomass burning in the northeast-southwest transport pathway increased the PM_(2.5)concentration by 75 ~ 100 μg·m~(-3),and contributed 10% ~20% of PM_(2.5)concentrations. The results indicated that stagnant meteorological conditions,coal combustion and biomass burning are three main factors for the formation and evolution of high PM_(2.5)concentration. The results can provide in-depth information for air quality improvement in NEC and help public realize the formation and evolution of haze.
In November 2015,Northeast China( NEC) has experienced a series of severe air pollution episodes with intense pollution level,large coverage and long durations. In this paper,air quality monitoring,remote sensing satellite data,numerical model and sensitivity method were employed to investigate the sources and formation mechanism of the severe air pollution episodes. The results indicated that NEC was controlled by high-pressure pattern with strong inversion in the lower atmosphere and smaller near-surface wind speed and high relative humidity( > 80%). The above extreme adverse diffusion conditions increased PM_(2.5)concentration by 30% ~ 50% based on the evaluation of numerical model. In addition,coal combustion in heating season significantly increased the overall PM_(2.5)by 100 ~ 200 μg·m~(-3),and contributed to 50% ~70% of PM_(2.5)concentrations in some areas. Meanwhile,biomass burning in the northeast-southwest transport pathway increased the PM_(2.5)concentration by 75 ~ 100 μg·m~(-3),and contributed 10% ~20% of PM_(2.5)concentrations. The results indicated that stagnant meteorological conditions,coal combustion and biomass burning are three main factors for the formation and evolution of high PM_(2.5)concentration. The results can provide in-depth information for air quality improvement in NEC and help public realize the formation and evolution of haze.
引文
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Zhao X J,Zhao P S,Xu J,et al.2013.Analysis of a winter regional haze event and its formation mechanism in the North China Plain[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,13(11):5685-5696
Zheng B,Huo H,Zhang Q,et al.2014.High-resolution mapping of vehicle emissions in China in 2008[J].Atmospheric ChemI stry and PhysI cs,14(18):9787-9805
邹宇飞.2010.基于卡尔曼滤波的反演模式在北京奥运期间华北区域污染排放更新中的应用[D].北京:中国科学院大气物理研究所
陈焕盛,王自发,吴其重,等,2013.空气质量多模式系统在广州应用及对PM10预报效果评估[J].气候与环境研究,18(4):427-435
陈焕盛,吴其重,王自发,等.2014.华北火电厂脱硫对奥运期间区域空气质量的影响[J].环境科学学报,34(3):598-605
Li J,Wang Z,Zhuang G,et al.2012.Mixing of Asian mineral dust with anthropogenic pollutants over East Asia:a model case study of a super-duststorm in March 2010[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,12(16):7591-7607
Li M,Zhang Q,Streets D G,et al.2014.Mapping Asian anthropogenic emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds to multiple chemical mechanisms[J].Atmospheric ChemI stry and Physics,14(11):5617-5638
Lin Y,Huang K,Zhuang G,et al.2014.A multi-year evolution of aerosol chemistry impacting visibility and haze formation over an Eastern Asia megacity,Shanghai[J].Atmospheric Environment 92:76-86
Liu F,Zhang Q,Tong D,et al.2015.High-resolution inventory of technologies,activities,and emissions of coal-fired power plants in China from 1990 to 2010[J].Atmospheric ChemI stry and Physics,15(23):13299-13317
Sun Y,Jiang Q,Wang Z,et al.2014.Investigation of the sources and evolution processes of severe haze pollution in Beijing in January2013[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,119(7):4380-4398
Sun Y,Wang Z,Wild O,et al.2016."APEC Blue":Secondary aerosol reductions from emission controls in Beijing[J].Scientific Reports,6:20668-20676
唐晓,王自发,朱江,等.2010.蒙特卡罗不确定性分析在O3模拟中的初步应用[J].气候与环境研究,(5):541-550
Wang Y,Zhuang G,Sun Y,et al.2006.The variation of characteristics and formation mechanisms of aerosols in dust,haze,and clear days in Beijing[J].Atmospheric Environment,40(34):6579-6591
王书肖,张楚莹,2008.中国秸秆露天焚烧大气污染物排放时空分布[J].中国科技论文在线,3(5):329-333
王自发,黄美元,何东阳,等.1997.关于我国和东亚酸性物质的输送研究──I.三维欧拉污染物输送实用模式[J].大气科学,21(3):366-378
王自发,谢付莹,王喜全,等.2006.嵌套网格空气质量预报模式系统的发展与应用[J].大气科学,30(5):778-790
王自发,李杰,王哲,等.2014.2013年1月我国中东部强霾污染的数值模拟和防控对策[J].中国科学:地球科学,44(3):3-14.
吴兑,刘啟汉,梁延刚,等.2012粤港细粒子(PM2.5)污染导致能见度下降与灰霾天气形成的研究[J].环境科学学报32(11):2660-2669
Wu D,Mao J,Deng X,et al.2009.Black carbon aerosols and their radiative properties in the Pearl River Delta region[J].Science in China Series D:Earth Sciences,52(8):1152-1163
吴其重,王自发,李丽娜,等.2010.北京奥运会空气质量保障方案京津冀地区措施评估[J].气候与环境研究,15(5):662-671
吴其重,徐文帅,赵秀娟,等.2012.北京市大气可吸入颗粒物排放源空间优化及模式验证[J].环境科学学报,32(10):2548-2558
Yang T,Wang X,Wang Z,et al.2012.Gravity-current driven transport of haze from North China Plain to Northeast China in Winter 2010-Part I:Observations[J].Sola,8:13-16
Yang T,Wang X,Wang Z,et al.2013.Gravity-current-driven transport of haze from the North China Plain to Northeast China in Winter 2010-Part 2:model simulation with tagged tracers[J].Sola,9:60-64
Zhao X J,Zhao P S,Xu J,et al.2013.Analysis of a winter regional haze event and its formation mechanism in the North China Plain[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,13(11):5685-5696
Zheng B,Huo H,Zhang Q,et al.2014.High-resolution mapping of vehicle emissions in China in 2008[J].Atmospheric ChemI stry and PhysI cs,14(18):9787-9805
邹宇飞.2010.基于卡尔曼滤波的反演模式在北京奥运期间华北区域污染排放更新中的应用[D].北京:中国科学院大气物理研究所