国家每千人口护理人力资源预测

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英文篇名：Prediction on Nursing Human Resources of Per Thousand People in the Country 作者：袁磊 ; 李海燕 ; 吕奕鹏 ; 吴昊远 ; 姜安 ; 金志超 英文作者：YUAN Lei;LI Haiyan;LYU Yipeng;WU Haoyuan;JIANG An;JIN Zhichao;Department of Military Health Management, Faculty of Military Health Service, Naval Medical University;Department of Vascular Surgery, Changhai Hospital, Naval Medical University;Department of Health Service, Faculty of Military Health Service, Naval Medical University;Academic Administrative Affairs, Naval Medical University;Department of Health Statistics, Faculty of Military Health Service, Naval Medical University; 关键词：护理人员 ; Verhulst模型 ; 预测 英文关键词：nursing staff;;Verhulst model;;prediction 中文刊名：JFYG 英文刊名：Hospital Administration Journal of Chinese People's Liberation Army 机构：海军军医大学卫生勤务学系军队健康管理学教研室;海军军医大学附属长海医院血管外科;海军军医大学卫生勤务学系卫生勤务学教研室;海军军医大学教务处;海军军医大学卫生勤务学系卫生统计学教研室; 出版日期：2019-04-19 10:17 出版单位：解放军医院管理杂志 年：2019 期：v.26;No.215 基金：上海市第四轮公共卫生三年行动计划重点学科建设项目:循证公共卫生与卫生经济学(15GWZK0901) 语种：中文; 页：JFYG201903003 页数：4 CN：03 ISSN：31-1826/R 分类号：11-14

摘要

目的通过对每千人口护理人员现状分析和预测研究,探讨存在的问题,并提出对策。方法基于2012—2017年国家卫生统计年鉴提供的数据,利用Matlab软件建立Verhulst模型。结果国家每千人护理人员模型为■;城市每千人护理人员模型为■;农村每千人护理人员模型为■。预测2017—2020年国家每千人护理人员值分别为2.69、2.82、2.94和3.05人,城市每千人护理人员值分别为5.18、5.42、5.64和5.83人,农村每千人护理人员值分别为1.56、1.63、1.68和1.73人。结论加大投入,提高护理人员待遇和心理收入;增加人员编制,减少工作负荷;重视教育,提高人员岗位胜任力;平衡发展,建立东西部人员交流机制。
        Objective To explore the existing problems and put forward countermeasures and suggestions through analyzing and forecasting the current situation of nurses in per thousand people. Methods Based on the data provided by the 2012-2017 yearbook of national health statistics, the Verhulst model was established by using Matlab software. Results The model for every thousand people in the country was ■, the model for every thousand people in the city was ■, and the model for every thousand people in the rural was ■. It was predicted that the values of nursing staff per 1000 people in 2017-2020 years were 2.69, 2.82, 2.94 and 3.05 respectively. The values of each thousand people in the city were 5.18, 5.42, 5.64 and 5.83, respectively, and the values of each thousand people in the countryside were 1.56, 1.63, 1.68 and 1.73. Conclusion We should increase investment to improve the treatment and psychological income of the nursing staff; enlarge the size of personnel to reduce the workload; pay attention to education to improve the competency of the staff, and balance the development to establish the communication mechanism between the East and the West.

引文

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