基于流程仿真的物资接收系统可靠性预计方法
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摘要
针对船舶物资接收时间计算的问题,新增加了对设备发生故障的考虑,通过引入接收时间可靠性的概念,将其转换为船舶物资接收系统的可靠性预计问题。为了解决上述可靠性预计问题,提出了基于流程仿真的系统可靠性预计方法。分析了物资接收系统的工作流程,依据工作流程实现了仿真程序,用蒙特卡洛法对物资接收系统的可靠性进行了求解,并分析了设备不同的可靠性水平对物资接收系统可靠性的影响。仿真结果表明,增加了对设备故障的考虑后,对物资接收时间的估计更加接近实际;基于流程仿真的系统可靠性预计方法的模型更容易理解,所得结论更加具体。
Aiming at the calculation of time for receiving the ship supplies,the consideration of equipment failures is added,and the calculation problem is converted to by introducing the concept of receive time reliability.To solve the problem of reliability prediction,system reliability prediction method based on flow simulation is proposed.Firstly,the work flow of supplies receive system is analyzed.Secondly,the simulation of the work flow is achieved.Finally,the reliability of supplies receive system is solved by Monte Carlo method,and the influence of different reliability levels of equipment to supplies receive system.The simulation results indicate that the assessment of supplies receiving time is closer to the actual after the equipment failures is considered.The model of the reliability prediction method based on flow simulation is easier to understand and the conclusion is more specific.
Aiming at the calculation of time for receiving the ship supplies,the consideration of equipment failures is added,and the calculation problem is converted to by introducing the concept of receive time reliability.To solve the problem of reliability prediction,system reliability prediction method based on flow simulation is proposed.Firstly,the work flow of supplies receive system is analyzed.Secondly,the simulation of the work flow is achieved.Finally,the reliability of supplies receive system is solved by Monte Carlo method,and the influence of different reliability levels of equipment to supplies receive system.The simulation results indicate that the assessment of supplies receiving time is closer to the actual after the equipment failures is considered.The model of the reliability prediction method based on flow simulation is easier to understand and the conclusion is more specific.
引文
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[2]武晶.船舶补给物资调运仿真研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学,2010.
[3]陈志诚,齐欢,魏军.基于可靠性框图的可靠性建模研究[J].工程设计学报,2011,18(6):407-411.
[4]叶俊,龙志强.基于动态故障树的中低速磁悬浮列车供电系统可靠性分析[J].机车电传动,2007,30(1):25-28.
[5]张涛,郭波,谭跃进.一种基于BDD的多阶段任务系统可靠度新算法[J].系统工程与电子技术,2005,29(3):446-470.
[6]崔利荣.马尔可夫链在可靠性计算中的一些新应用[J].系统工程与电子技术,1999,21(12):89-91.
[7]赵俊阁,张琪,付钰.贝叶斯网络推理在信息系统安全风险评估中的应用[J].海军工程大学学报,2007,19(6):67-70.
[8]宁波,陈刚,陈卫东.基于蒙特卡洛法的水下火箭攻击弹道数学仿真研究[J].系统仿真学报,2006,18(Suppl.2):8-12.
[9]张勇,白玉,杨晓光.城市道路网络的行程时间可靠性[J].系统工程理论与实践,2009,29(8):171-176.
[10]熊尧,徐巍,张文俊.面向大型船舶装备的系统可靠性预计方法研究[J].舰船科学技术,2015,37(6):122-126.