3种海洋灾害事件对浙江北部三疣梭子蟹补充量的影响
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摘要
根据2000—2014年浙江北部海域三疣梭子蟹的生产统计和该海域的台风风级(代表当年台风风级总计)、赤潮面积(当年赤潮发生面积总计),以及厄尔尼诺等级(代表当年厄尔尼诺指数强弱)数据,基于广义可加模型对三疣梭子蟹资源补充量变动与以上海洋灾害事件的关系进行研究。研究结果表明,3个因子均能对浙江海域三疣梭子蟹的资源补充量产生影响。广义可加模型对三疣梭子蟹补充量总偏差解释率为80.2%,其中贡献最大的是台风风级,贡献率为56.3%;其次是赤潮面积,贡献率为21.2%;贡献最小的是厄尔尼诺等级,贡献率为2.7%。厄尔尼诺等级为20~40时,与三疣梭子蟹资源补充量呈正相关;厄尔尼诺等级为40~55时,呈负相关,可能是厄尔尼诺期间致使水温发生变化影响三疣梭子蟹的摄食强度。赤潮面积为2000~6000km2时,与梭子蟹资源补充量呈正相关,赤潮面积为6000~13 000km2时,呈负相关;赤潮影响水中溶解氧水平、水体质量、人类捕捞行为、梭子蟹天敌数量以及饵料的变动。台风风级在10~36时,与梭子蟹资源补充量呈负相关;36~55时,呈正相关,台风扰乱水流方向,影响水中营养盐的含量,也会影响人类的捕捞行为。研究结果可作为日后分析三疣梭子蟹资源变动规律和开展可持续性管理的参考。
The effects of typhoon wind scale,red tide area and EI Ni?o grade on recruitment of swimming crab Portunus trituberculatus and relationship between environmental changes due to marine disasters and fluctuations of production and recruitment of swimming crab was investigated in northern sea area in Zhejiang province by generalized additive model(GAM)based on the production statistics of swimming crab from 2000 to 2014 and the marine disaster data in northern sea area in Zhejiang province.The results showed that 3 marine disaster factors had the cumulative deviance explanation rate of 80.2%for the recruitment,the maximal contribution of typhoon wind scale with deviance explanation of 56.3%,the deviance explanation of 21.2%in area of red tide,and followed by the El Ni?o grade with the contribution rate of 2.7%.There was positive relationship between EI Ni?o grade and recruitment of swimming crab within20—40 grade of EI Ni?o and negative relationship between EI Ni?o grade and recruitment of swimming crab within 40—55 grade of EI Ni?o,which was contributed to changes in feeding intensity of swimming crab caused by water temperature changes during El Nino.There was positive relationship between red tide area and recruitment of swimming crab at red tide area of 2000—6000 km2 and negative relationship between red tide area and recruitment of swimming crab at red tide area of 6000—13 000 km2,which was owing to impact of the area of red tide on the dissolved oxygen saturation,water quality,catching,and enemy number and natural food of swimming crab.The negative relationship between typhoon wind scale and recruitment of swimming crab was observed at 10—36 scale of typhoon and positive relationship at36—55 scale of typhoon,because typhoon disrupts the direction of the flow and affects the concentration of nutrients in the water and human fishing behavior.The findings provide reference with understanding and sustainable management of the crab resources.
The effects of typhoon wind scale,red tide area and EI Ni?o grade on recruitment of swimming crab Portunus trituberculatus and relationship between environmental changes due to marine disasters and fluctuations of production and recruitment of swimming crab was investigated in northern sea area in Zhejiang province by generalized additive model(GAM)based on the production statistics of swimming crab from 2000 to 2014 and the marine disaster data in northern sea area in Zhejiang province.The results showed that 3 marine disaster factors had the cumulative deviance explanation rate of 80.2%for the recruitment,the maximal contribution of typhoon wind scale with deviance explanation of 56.3%,the deviance explanation of 21.2%in area of red tide,and followed by the El Ni?o grade with the contribution rate of 2.7%.There was positive relationship between EI Ni?o grade and recruitment of swimming crab within20—40 grade of EI Ni?o and negative relationship between EI Ni?o grade and recruitment of swimming crab within 40—55 grade of EI Ni?o,which was contributed to changes in feeding intensity of swimming crab caused by water temperature changes during El Nino.There was positive relationship between red tide area and recruitment of swimming crab at red tide area of 2000—6000 km2 and negative relationship between red tide area and recruitment of swimming crab at red tide area of 6000—13 000 km2,which was owing to impact of the area of red tide on the dissolved oxygen saturation,water quality,catching,and enemy number and natural food of swimming crab.The negative relationship between typhoon wind scale and recruitment of swimming crab was observed at 10—36 scale of typhoon and positive relationship at36—55 scale of typhoon,because typhoon disrupts the direction of the flow and affects the concentration of nutrients in the water and human fishing behavior.The findings provide reference with understanding and sustainable management of the crab resources.
引文
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[4]郑芳,刘群,王艳君.环境因子对黄海鳀鱼亲体—补充量关系影响的初步研究[J].南方水产,2008,4(2):15-21.
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[9] Veas R,Miranda H E.The influence of environment factors on the abundance and recruitment of the sand crab Emerita analoga(Stimpson 1857):source-sink dynamics[J].Marine Environment Research,2013,89(2):9-20.
[10] William R Bechtol,Gordon H Kruse.Reconstruction of historical abundance and recruitment of red king crab during 1960—2004around Kodiak,Alaska[J].Fisheries Research,2008,100(1):86-98.
[11]董月娥,左书华.1989年以来我国海洋灾害类型、危害及特征分析[J].海洋地质动态,2014,25(6):32-37.
[12]上海绿洲经济动物科技有限公司.河蟹、青蟹、梭子蟹[M].上海:上海科学技术文化出版社,1997:86-90.
[13]张晓霞,许自舟,程嘉熠,等.赤潮灾害风险评估方法研究——以辽宁近岸海域为例[J].水产科学,2015,34(11):708-713.
[14]县彦宗,吴玮,胡建华.浙江省海洋灾害与防御对策[J].海洋开发与管理,2014,20(10):106-110.
[15]Hastie T,Tibshirani R.Generalized additive models[M].London:Chapman and Hall,1990:335.
[16]詹秉义.渔业资源评估[M].北京:中国农业出版社,1995:12-94.
[17]谢周,邱盛尧,候朝伟.山东半岛南部海域三疣梭子蟹增殖放流群体回捕率[J].中国水产科学,2014,21(5):1000-1009.
[18]ENSO监测小组.厄尔尼诺事件的划分和标准[J].气象杂志,1989,15(3):37-38.
[19]Swartaman G,Stuetzle W,Kuhman K.Relating the distuibution of pollock schools in the Bring sea to environmental factors[J].ICES J Mar Sci,1994,51(4):481-492.
[20]刘滨.温度对三疣梭子蟹行为的影响[J].河北渔业,2016,267(3):4-5.
[21]王晓红,张恒庆.人类活动对海洋生物多样性的影响[J].水产科学,2003,22(1):39-41.
[2]农业部渔业渔政管理局.中国渔业统计年鉴2015[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2015:44-50.
[3]汪金涛,陈新军,高峰.基于环境因子的东南太平洋茎柔鱼资源补充量预报模型研究[J].海洋与湖沼,2014,45(6):49-55.
[4]郑芳,刘群,王艳君.环境因子对黄海鳀鱼亲体—补充量关系影响的初步研究[J].南方水产,2008,4(2):15-21.
[5]汪金涛,高峰,雷林.基于产卵场环境因子的阿根廷滑柔鱼资源补充量预报模型研究[J].海洋学报,2014,36(12):119-123.
[6]邓景耀,朱金声,任胜民.渤海对虾亲体与补充量(SRR)动态特征的研究[J].中国水产科学,1996,3(2):20-25.
[7]唐浩,陈新军,徐柳雄.基于GAM模型研究时空及环境因子对中西太平洋鲣鱼渔场的影响[J].环境科学,2013,32(4):518-522.
[8] Hiroyuki A D S.Effect of environment factors,especially hypoxia and typhoons on recruitment of the gazami crab Portunus trituberculatus in Osaka Bay,Japan[J].Fish Sci,2010,76(2):315-324.
[9] Veas R,Miranda H E.The influence of environment factors on the abundance and recruitment of the sand crab Emerita analoga(Stimpson 1857):source-sink dynamics[J].Marine Environment Research,2013,89(2):9-20.
[10] William R Bechtol,Gordon H Kruse.Reconstruction of historical abundance and recruitment of red king crab during 1960—2004around Kodiak,Alaska[J].Fisheries Research,2008,100(1):86-98.
[11]董月娥,左书华.1989年以来我国海洋灾害类型、危害及特征分析[J].海洋地质动态,2014,25(6):32-37.
[12]上海绿洲经济动物科技有限公司.河蟹、青蟹、梭子蟹[M].上海:上海科学技术文化出版社,1997:86-90.
[13]张晓霞,许自舟,程嘉熠,等.赤潮灾害风险评估方法研究——以辽宁近岸海域为例[J].水产科学,2015,34(11):708-713.
[14]县彦宗,吴玮,胡建华.浙江省海洋灾害与防御对策[J].海洋开发与管理,2014,20(10):106-110.
[15]Hastie T,Tibshirani R.Generalized additive models[M].London:Chapman and Hall,1990:335.
[16]詹秉义.渔业资源评估[M].北京:中国农业出版社,1995:12-94.
[17]谢周,邱盛尧,候朝伟.山东半岛南部海域三疣梭子蟹增殖放流群体回捕率[J].中国水产科学,2014,21(5):1000-1009.
[18]ENSO监测小组.厄尔尼诺事件的划分和标准[J].气象杂志,1989,15(3):37-38.
[19]Swartaman G,Stuetzle W,Kuhman K.Relating the distuibution of pollock schools in the Bring sea to environmental factors[J].ICES J Mar Sci,1994,51(4):481-492.
[20]刘滨.温度对三疣梭子蟹行为的影响[J].河北渔业,2016,267(3):4-5.
[21]王晓红,张恒庆.人类活动对海洋生物多样性的影响[J].水产科学,2003,22(1):39-41.
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