农业干旱灾害风险模糊集对评价法及其应用
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摘要
开展农业干旱灾害风险评估,有利于定量认识农业旱灾和科学指导防旱抗旱工作。基于集对分析原理和模糊理论建立的模糊集对评价法,兼顾了信息的多尺度特征和评价等级的模糊性,概念清晰,计算简洁。构建了由旱灾危险性子系统、旱灾暴露性子系统、灾损敏感性子系统和抗旱能力子系统组成的干旱灾害风险评估体系和评价指标。将模糊集对评价法应用于2012年安徽省亳州市农业干旱灾害风险评估,研究结果表明,建议方法是可靠的,为农业干旱灾害风险评估提供了一种新途径。
Agricultural drought disaster risk assessment is one of the most important basic researches on the quantitative under-standing of the mechanism of drought risk and scientific control of drought risk. Assessment method based on fuzzy theory and set pair analysis can take the multi-scale feature of information and fuzzy property of assessment criteria into full account. The pre-sented method is simple in concept and convenient to calculate. Both agricultural drought risk assessment system and evaluation indexes are constituted by the hazard subsystem, exposure subsystem, damage sensitivity subsystem and drought resistance capacity subsystem. The assessment method is firstly applied to the agricultural drought disaster risk assessment. The results show that the presented method is satisfactory and it will provide a new approach for the evaluation of agricultural drought disaster risk.
Agricultural drought disaster risk assessment is one of the most important basic researches on the quantitative under-standing of the mechanism of drought risk and scientific control of drought risk. Assessment method based on fuzzy theory and set pair analysis can take the multi-scale feature of information and fuzzy property of assessment criteria into full account. The pre-sented method is simple in concept and convenient to calculate. Both agricultural drought risk assessment system and evaluation indexes are constituted by the hazard subsystem, exposure subsystem, damage sensitivity subsystem and drought resistance capacity subsystem. The assessment method is firstly applied to the agricultural drought disaster risk assessment. The results show that the presented method is satisfactory and it will provide a new approach for the evaluation of agricultural drought disaster risk.
引文
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[13]王文圣,张翔,金菊良等.水文学不确定分析方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2011:339-341.(WANG Wensheng, ZHANG Xiang, JINJuliang, et al. Method of Uncertainty Analysis for Hydrology[M].Beijing:Science Press,2011:339-341.(in Chinese))
[14]程乾生.属性集和属性综合评价系统[J].系统工程理论与实践,1997,17(9):1-8.(CHENG Qiansheng. Attribute sets and attributesynthetic assessment system[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice, 1997,17(9):1-8.(in Chinese))
[15]金菊良,宋占智,崔毅,等.旱灾风险评估与调控关键技术研究进展[J].水利学报,2016,47(3):398-412.(JIN Juliang,SONG Zhanzhi,CUIYi,et al. Research progress on the key technologies of droughtrisk assessment and control[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2016,47(3):398-412.(in Chinese))
[16]王莺,沙莎,王素萍等.中国南方干旱灾害风险评估[J].草业学报, 2015, 24(5):12-24.(WANG Ying,SHA Sha,WANG Suping,etal.Assessment of drought disaster risk in southern China[J].ActaPrataculture Sinica, 2015, 24(5):12-24.(in Chinese))
[17]杜云.淮河流域农业干旱灾害风险评估研究[D].合肥:合肥工业大学, 2013.(DU Yun. Study on Risk Assessment of AgriculturalDrought Disaster in Huaihe River Basin[D].Hefei:Hefei Universityof Technology, 2013.(in Chinese))
[2] Alexander D.Confronting Catastrophe[M].Oxford UK:Oxford Univer-sity Press, 2000.
[3]何斌,武建军,吕爱锋.农业干旱风险研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2010, 29(5):557-564.(HE Bin, WU Jianjun, LV Aifeng. Newadvances in agricultural drought risk study[J].Progress in Geography,2010,29(5):557-564.(in Chinese))
[4] Moran M S, Clarke TR, Inoue Y, et al. Estimationg crop waterdeficit using the relation between surface air temperature andspectural vegetation index[J].Remote Sensing of Environment, 1994,49(3):246-263.
[5]魏一鸣,万庆,周成虎.基于神经网络的自然灾害灾情评估模型研究[J].自然灾害学报, 1997, 6(2):1-6.(WEI Yiming,WAN Qing,ZHOU Chenghu. A study on the neural network based model forevaluation of natural disaster[J].Journal of Natural Disasters, 1997,6(2):1-6.(in Chinese))
[6]杨奇勇,李景保,蔡松柏.湖南农业干旱脆弱性分区研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2007,18(3):46-49.(YANG Qiyong, LI Jingbao, CAISongbo. Zoning study for the frangibility of agricultural drought inHu'nan Province[J]. Journal of Water Resources&WaterEngineering,2007,18(3):46-49.(in Chinese))
[7]高吉喜. RS和GIS技术在重大自然灾害监测评估中的应用[J].中国环境监测, 1997, 13(6):40-43.(GAO Jixi. Application of RSand GIS in monitoring and evaluating major natural disasters[J].Environmental Monitoring in China, 1997, 13(6):40-43.(in Chinese))
[8]常文娟,梁忠民.信息扩散理论在农业旱灾风险率分析中的应用[J].水电能源科学,2009,27(6):185-187.(CHANG Wenjuan,LIANGZhongmin.Application of information diffusion theory in agriculturaldrought disaster risk rate analysis[J].Water Resources and Power,2009,27(6):185-187.(in Chinese))
[9]金菊良,郦建强,周玉良,等.旱灾风险评估的初步理论框架[J].灾害学,2014,29(3):1-10.(JIN Juliang, LI Jianqiang, ZHOU Yuliang, et al.Research on the theoretical framework of drought risk assessment[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2014,29(3):1-10.(in Chinese))
[10]王文圣,金菊良,丁晶,等.水资源系统评价新方法———集对评价法[J].中国科学(E辑:技术科学),2009,39(9):1529-1534.(WANGWensheng, JIN Juliang,DING Jing, et al. A new approach towater resources system assessment―set pair analysis method[J].SciChina Ser(E-Tech Sci),2009,39(9):1529-1534.(in Chinese))
[11]张吉军.模糊层次分析法(FAHP)[J]模糊系统与数学,2000,14(2):80-88.(ZHANG Jijun. Fuzzy analytical hierarchy process[J].FuzzySystems and Mathematics, 2000,14(2):80-88.(in Chinese))
[12]金菊良,洪天求,王文圣.基于熵和FAHP的水资源可持续利用模糊综合评价模型[J].水力发电学报,2007,26(4):22-28.(JIN Juliang,HONG Tianqiu, WANG Wensheng. Entropy and FAHP basedfuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of water resourcessustaining utilization[J]. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2007,26(4):22-28.(in Chinese))
[13]王文圣,张翔,金菊良等.水文学不确定分析方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2011:339-341.(WANG Wensheng, ZHANG Xiang, JINJuliang, et al. Method of Uncertainty Analysis for Hydrology[M].Beijing:Science Press,2011:339-341.(in Chinese))
[14]程乾生.属性集和属性综合评价系统[J].系统工程理论与实践,1997,17(9):1-8.(CHENG Qiansheng. Attribute sets and attributesynthetic assessment system[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice, 1997,17(9):1-8.(in Chinese))
[15]金菊良,宋占智,崔毅,等.旱灾风险评估与调控关键技术研究进展[J].水利学报,2016,47(3):398-412.(JIN Juliang,SONG Zhanzhi,CUIYi,et al. Research progress on the key technologies of droughtrisk assessment and control[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2016,47(3):398-412.(in Chinese))
[16]王莺,沙莎,王素萍等.中国南方干旱灾害风险评估[J].草业学报, 2015, 24(5):12-24.(WANG Ying,SHA Sha,WANG Suping,etal.Assessment of drought disaster risk in southern China[J].ActaPrataculture Sinica, 2015, 24(5):12-24.(in Chinese))
[17]杜云.淮河流域农业干旱灾害风险评估研究[D].合肥:合肥工业大学, 2013.(DU Yun. Study on Risk Assessment of AgriculturalDrought Disaster in Huaihe River Basin[D].Hefei:Hefei Universityof Technology, 2013.(in Chinese))