中国稻飞虱发生的大气环流指示指标
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摘要
根据1971—2010年稻飞虱发生面积率和发生程度资料,构建综合反映稻飞虱发生为害的因子,定义为稻飞虱发生指数。基于因子膨化方法对74项大气环流特征量进行合理扩充,采用相关分析等方法研究当年2月初、4月初、6月初对全国稻飞虱发生面积率等级、发生程度等级、发生指数等级具有指示意义的大气环流因子的筛选及其相应等级指标的构建。结果表明:影响稻飞虱发生面积率等级的指示因子为西太平洋副高面积指数、南海副高脊线、北半球极涡强度指数、印缅槽,影响稻飞虱发生程度等级的指示因子为太平洋副高北界、亚洲纬向环流指数、东亚槽强度、太阳黑子数,影响稻飞虱发生指数等级的指示因子为北半球副高强度指数、北半球极涡强度指数、大西洋欧洲环流型指数、西藏高原指数。不同指示因子的量值在稻飞虱轻、偏轻、偏重和重发生时差异性显著;建立的稻飞虱发生等级的大气环流指示指标,经历史发生情况检验,对稻飞虱发生等级具有很好的指示效应,可为稻飞虱中长期预测预报提供科学依据。
According to rice planthopper occurrence area ratio,occurrence degree data from 1971 to 2010,a new factor was defined as occurrence index,reflecting the comprehensive damage degree of rice planthopper.Based on 74 atmospheric circulation characteristics data from month to month in 1970-2010,all possible combinations of circulation characteristics were constructed by factor puffing.By means of correlation analysis,leading indicators of national rice planthopper occurrence rank in early February,April and June was established.The results showed that rank indicating factors of national rice planthopper occurrence area ratio included the area index of western pacific subtropical anticyclone,the ridge line of south China sea subtropical anticyclone,the northern hemisphere polar vortex intensity index and India-Burma trough.The rank indicating factors of national planthopper occurrence degree included the northern boundary of Pacific subtropical anticyclone,Asian zonal circulation index,Asian trough intensity,and sun spots.The rank indicating factors of national planthopper occurrence index included the intensity index of northern hemisphere subtropical anticyclone,the northern hemisphere polar vortex intensity index,Atlantic European type circulation index and Tibet Plateau index.The values of rank indicators had great differences in light,partially light,partially heavy,and heavy ranks.Rank indicators had a good indication for planthopper occurrence rank,which can provide a scientific basis for long-term forecasting of rice planthopper.
According to rice planthopper occurrence area ratio,occurrence degree data from 1971 to 2010,a new factor was defined as occurrence index,reflecting the comprehensive damage degree of rice planthopper.Based on 74 atmospheric circulation characteristics data from month to month in 1970-2010,all possible combinations of circulation characteristics were constructed by factor puffing.By means of correlation analysis,leading indicators of national rice planthopper occurrence rank in early February,April and June was established.The results showed that rank indicating factors of national rice planthopper occurrence area ratio included the area index of western pacific subtropical anticyclone,the ridge line of south China sea subtropical anticyclone,the northern hemisphere polar vortex intensity index and India-Burma trough.The rank indicating factors of national planthopper occurrence degree included the northern boundary of Pacific subtropical anticyclone,Asian zonal circulation index,Asian trough intensity,and sun spots.The rank indicating factors of national planthopper occurrence index included the intensity index of northern hemisphere subtropical anticyclone,the northern hemisphere polar vortex intensity index,Atlantic European type circulation index and Tibet Plateau index.The values of rank indicators had great differences in light,partially light,partially heavy,and heavy ranks.Rank indicators had a good indication for planthopper occurrence rank,which can provide a scientific basis for long-term forecasting of rice planthopper.
引文
包云轩,谢杰,向勇,等.2009.低空急流对中国褐飞虱重大北迁过程的影响.生态学报,29(11):5773-5782.
包云轩,徐希燕,王建强,等.2007.白背飞虱重大迁入过程的大气动力背景分析.生态学报,27(12):4527-4535.
陈惠,关瑞锋,杨凯,等.2008.福建省稻飞虱气象条件适宜程度等级预报.中国农业气象,29(4):496-498.
封传红,翟保平,张孝羲,等.2002.我国北方稻区1991年稻飞虱大发生虫源形成.生态学报,22(8):1302-1314.
高苹,武金岗,陈宁,等.2005.大气环流特征量的水稻白背飞虱发生程度预报模型的研究.生态学杂志,24(2):146-152.
黄荣华,舒畅,姚英娟,等.2011.太阳黑子周期与褐飞虱大发生年份的关系.华中农业大学学报,30(3):322-326.
霍治国,陈林,叶彩玲,等.2002.气候条件对中国水稻稻飞虱为害规律的影响.自然灾害学报,11(1):97-102.
霍治国,李茂松,王丽,等.2012.降水变化对中国农作物病虫害的影响.中国农业科学,45(10):1935-1945.
江胜国,杨太明,程林,等.2010.卡尔曼滤波方法在稻飞虱发生等级预测中的应用研究.气象,36(10):106-109.
姜燕,霍治国,李世奎,等.2006.全国小麦条锈病长期预报模型比较研究.自然灾害学报,15(6):109-113.
李军,蒋耀培,杨秋珍,等.2005.单季晚稻褐飞虱发生程度的气候诊断.生态学杂志,24(3):339-342.
刘祖建,陈冰,李志杰,等.2011.气象因子对第2代稻飞虱发生程度的影响及预测模型.南方农业学报,42(12):1500-1502.
卢小凤,霍治国,申双和,等.2012.气候变暖对中国褐飞虱越冬北界的影响.生态学杂志,31(8):1977-1983.
钱拴,霍治国.2007.大气环流对中国稻飞虱危害的影响及其预测.气象学报,65(6):994-1002.
舒畅,姚英娟,曾小军,等.2011.ENSO事件和太阳黑子活动与我国长江中下游稻区褐飞虱大发生关系的研究.江西农业大学学报,33(2):258-263.
谈涵秋,毛瑞曾,程极益,等.1984.褐飞虱远距离迁飞中的降落和垂直气流、降雨的关系.南京农学院学报,(2):18-25.
汤金仪.1996.我国水稻迁飞性害虫猖獗成因及其治理对策建议.生态学报,16(2):167-173.
王海建,杨茂发,李庆,等.2006.稻飞虱发生程度的神经网络模型拟合研究.四川农业大学学报,24(1):37-39,60.
巫国瑞,俞晓平,陶林勇.1997.褐飞虱和白背飞虱灾害的长期预测.中国农业科学,30(4):26-30.
冼晓青,翟保平,张孝羲,等.2007.江苏沿江和江淮区褐飞虱前期迁入量与太平洋海温场的遥相关及其可能机制.昆虫学报,50(6):578-587.
严明良,缪启龙,包云轩.2008.基于大气动力学理论的迁飞性害虫迁入峰实时预警研究.安徽农业科学,36(23):10033-10036.
叶正襄,黄荣华,秦厚国,等.1992.用海温分布特征预报早稻白背飞虱发生量的研究.植物保护,18(4):88-89.
赵圣菊.1988.从气象因素分析1987年稻飞虱大发生的原因.植物保护,14(2):2-5.
郑大玮,李茂松,霍治国.2013.农业灾害与减灾对策.北京:中国农业出版社.
朱敏,胡国文,唐健,等.1997.全球气候异常对我过褐飞虱发生的影响.中国农业科学,30(5):1-5.
Milks AP,Rutter JF,Rosenberg LJ.1996.Weather associated with spring and summer migrations of rice pests and insects in south-eastern and eastern Asia.Bulletin of Entomological Research,86:683-694.
Morishita M.1992.A possible relationship between outbreaks of rice planthoppers in Japan and the El Nino phenomenon.Plant Epidemic Prevention,46:11-13.
Otuka A,Watanabe T,Suzuki Y,et al.2005.A migration analysis of the rice planthopper Nilaparvata lugens from the Philippines to East Asia with three-dimensional computer simulations.Population Ecology,47:143-150.
Riley JR,Cheng XN,Zhang XX,et al.1991.The long-distance migration of Nilaparvata lugens(Stl)(Delphacidae)in China:Radar observations of mass return flight in the autumn.Ecological Entomology,16:471-489.
包云轩,徐希燕,王建强,等.2007.白背飞虱重大迁入过程的大气动力背景分析.生态学报,27(12):4527-4535.
陈惠,关瑞锋,杨凯,等.2008.福建省稻飞虱气象条件适宜程度等级预报.中国农业气象,29(4):496-498.
封传红,翟保平,张孝羲,等.2002.我国北方稻区1991年稻飞虱大发生虫源形成.生态学报,22(8):1302-1314.
高苹,武金岗,陈宁,等.2005.大气环流特征量的水稻白背飞虱发生程度预报模型的研究.生态学杂志,24(2):146-152.
黄荣华,舒畅,姚英娟,等.2011.太阳黑子周期与褐飞虱大发生年份的关系.华中农业大学学报,30(3):322-326.
霍治国,陈林,叶彩玲,等.2002.气候条件对中国水稻稻飞虱为害规律的影响.自然灾害学报,11(1):97-102.
霍治国,李茂松,王丽,等.2012.降水变化对中国农作物病虫害的影响.中国农业科学,45(10):1935-1945.
江胜国,杨太明,程林,等.2010.卡尔曼滤波方法在稻飞虱发生等级预测中的应用研究.气象,36(10):106-109.
姜燕,霍治国,李世奎,等.2006.全国小麦条锈病长期预报模型比较研究.自然灾害学报,15(6):109-113.
李军,蒋耀培,杨秋珍,等.2005.单季晚稻褐飞虱发生程度的气候诊断.生态学杂志,24(3):339-342.
刘祖建,陈冰,李志杰,等.2011.气象因子对第2代稻飞虱发生程度的影响及预测模型.南方农业学报,42(12):1500-1502.
卢小凤,霍治国,申双和,等.2012.气候变暖对中国褐飞虱越冬北界的影响.生态学杂志,31(8):1977-1983.
钱拴,霍治国.2007.大气环流对中国稻飞虱危害的影响及其预测.气象学报,65(6):994-1002.
舒畅,姚英娟,曾小军,等.2011.ENSO事件和太阳黑子活动与我国长江中下游稻区褐飞虱大发生关系的研究.江西农业大学学报,33(2):258-263.
谈涵秋,毛瑞曾,程极益,等.1984.褐飞虱远距离迁飞中的降落和垂直气流、降雨的关系.南京农学院学报,(2):18-25.
汤金仪.1996.我国水稻迁飞性害虫猖獗成因及其治理对策建议.生态学报,16(2):167-173.
王海建,杨茂发,李庆,等.2006.稻飞虱发生程度的神经网络模型拟合研究.四川农业大学学报,24(1):37-39,60.
巫国瑞,俞晓平,陶林勇.1997.褐飞虱和白背飞虱灾害的长期预测.中国农业科学,30(4):26-30.
冼晓青,翟保平,张孝羲,等.2007.江苏沿江和江淮区褐飞虱前期迁入量与太平洋海温场的遥相关及其可能机制.昆虫学报,50(6):578-587.
严明良,缪启龙,包云轩.2008.基于大气动力学理论的迁飞性害虫迁入峰实时预警研究.安徽农业科学,36(23):10033-10036.
叶正襄,黄荣华,秦厚国,等.1992.用海温分布特征预报早稻白背飞虱发生量的研究.植物保护,18(4):88-89.
赵圣菊.1988.从气象因素分析1987年稻飞虱大发生的原因.植物保护,14(2):2-5.
郑大玮,李茂松,霍治国.2013.农业灾害与减灾对策.北京:中国农业出版社.
朱敏,胡国文,唐健,等.1997.全球气候异常对我过褐飞虱发生的影响.中国农业科学,30(5):1-5.
Milks AP,Rutter JF,Rosenberg LJ.1996.Weather associated with spring and summer migrations of rice pests and insects in south-eastern and eastern Asia.Bulletin of Entomological Research,86:683-694.
Morishita M.1992.A possible relationship between outbreaks of rice planthoppers in Japan and the El Nino phenomenon.Plant Epidemic Prevention,46:11-13.
Otuka A,Watanabe T,Suzuki Y,et al.2005.A migration analysis of the rice planthopper Nilaparvata lugens from the Philippines to East Asia with three-dimensional computer simulations.Population Ecology,47:143-150.
Riley JR,Cheng XN,Zhang XX,et al.1991.The long-distance migration of Nilaparvata lugens(Stl)(Delphacidae)in China:Radar observations of mass return flight in the autumn.Ecological Entomology,16:471-489.
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