青藏高原东北部气候变化的异质性及其成因
|
摘要
利用1961-2016年西宁等青藏高原东北部13个气象台站气温、降水等气象资料以及国家气候中心发布的南海季风指数、西伯利亚高压指数等大气环流特征量数据,分析近56年来气候变化与高原主体的差异性及其可能的气候成因。研究表明:近56年来青藏高原东北部气候变暖趋势十分显著,年平均气温气候倾向率高达0.39℃/10 a,呈现出三次明显的阶梯性增高态势,并于1994年前后发生了由冷到暖的突变,同时具有明显的空间差异性;年降水量及四季降水量均没有明显变化趋势,虽然经历了2002年左右由少到多的变化,但并未出现明显突变,年降水量具有3年、5年的准周期,而年降水日数微弱减少,降水强度呈增加趋势;该区域气候变化的年际波动主要受到东亚季风、高原季风和南海季风的年际振荡及其相互作用的影响,而西风环流的作用并不明显,植被覆盖的恢复既是对2002年以来降水量增加的具体反应,同时也对于气候变暖趋势起到了一定的缓和作用。
The northeastern part of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is situated in the transitional zone of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Loess Plateau. Known as Qinghai's Hehuang areas, it is the valleys of Yellow River and Huangshui River. And it is the birthplace of civilization and cradle of economic and social development of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, especially Qinghai province.It is also one of the areas of earliest human activities in the Yellow River Basin. Because it is located in the intersection of China's two high plateaus, its climate and its changes have a certain heterogeneity. The northeastern part of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has some characteristics of the East Asian monsoon climate, which is different from complete plateau continental climate. Therefore, due to complexity of its climate change and significance of its impact on economy and society, the issue of climate change in the region has received wide attention from academic community. Based on analysis of climate change in the northeastern part of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1961 to 2016 and its heterogeneity in climate change over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, this paper discusses the causes of climate change from evolution of atmospheric circulation and changes in vegetation cover. The meteorological data such as temperature, precipitation and other meteorological data of 13 meteorological stations in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1961 to 2016, the data of atmospheric circulation characteristics such as the South China Sea summer monsoon index and Siberian High Index released by the National Climate Center were analyzed in this paper. And, the heterogeneity between climate change and plateau main body and their possible climate genesis were also analyzed in the past 56 years. The results are shown as follows:(1) Climate warming trend in the northeastern part of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is very significant in the past 56 years. The climatic tendency rate of annual average temperature is as high as 0.39 °C/10 a, showing three obvious stepwise increases and it has mutations from cold to warm around 1994 with significant spatial variability.(2) There is no obvious change in annual and seasonal precipitation. Although it has experienced less to more changes around 2002, there is no significant mutation. The annual precipitation has a quasi-periodic variations of 3 years and 5 years, while the number of annual precipitation days is slightly reduced and precipitation intensity is increasing.(3) The interannual variability of climate change in this region is mainly affected by interannual oscillations of East Asian monsoon, plateau monsoon and South China Sea monsoon and their interactions, while effect of westerly circulation is not obvious. The restoration of vegetation cover has not only responded to precipitation increase since 2002 but also played a certain role of mitigative effect in climate warming trend.
The northeastern part of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is situated in the transitional zone of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Loess Plateau. Known as Qinghai's Hehuang areas, it is the valleys of Yellow River and Huangshui River. And it is the birthplace of civilization and cradle of economic and social development of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, especially Qinghai province.It is also one of the areas of earliest human activities in the Yellow River Basin. Because it is located in the intersection of China's two high plateaus, its climate and its changes have a certain heterogeneity. The northeastern part of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has some characteristics of the East Asian monsoon climate, which is different from complete plateau continental climate. Therefore, due to complexity of its climate change and significance of its impact on economy and society, the issue of climate change in the region has received wide attention from academic community. Based on analysis of climate change in the northeastern part of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1961 to 2016 and its heterogeneity in climate change over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, this paper discusses the causes of climate change from evolution of atmospheric circulation and changes in vegetation cover. The meteorological data such as temperature, precipitation and other meteorological data of 13 meteorological stations in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1961 to 2016, the data of atmospheric circulation characteristics such as the South China Sea summer monsoon index and Siberian High Index released by the National Climate Center were analyzed in this paper. And, the heterogeneity between climate change and plateau main body and their possible climate genesis were also analyzed in the past 56 years. The results are shown as follows:(1) Climate warming trend in the northeastern part of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is very significant in the past 56 years. The climatic tendency rate of annual average temperature is as high as 0.39 °C/10 a, showing three obvious stepwise increases and it has mutations from cold to warm around 1994 with significant spatial variability.(2) There is no obvious change in annual and seasonal precipitation. Although it has experienced less to more changes around 2002, there is no significant mutation. The annual precipitation has a quasi-periodic variations of 3 years and 5 years, while the number of annual precipitation days is slightly reduced and precipitation intensity is increasing.(3) The interannual variability of climate change in this region is mainly affected by interannual oscillations of East Asian monsoon, plateau monsoon and South China Sea monsoon and their interactions, while effect of westerly circulation is not obvious. The restoration of vegetation cover has not only responded to precipitation increase since 2002 but also played a certain role of mitigative effect in climate warming trend.
引文
[1]《河湟地区生态环境保护与可持续发展》编辑委员会.河湟地区生态环境保护与可持续发展.西宁:青海人民出版社, 2012.[The Editorial Board of the Protection of Ecological Environment and Sustainable Development in Hehuang.Protection the Ecological Environment and Sustainable Development in Hehuang. Xining:Qinghai People's Press,2012.]
[2]侯光良,刘峰贵,萧凌波,等.青海东部高庙盆地史前文化聚落演变与气候变化.地理学报, 2008, 63(1):34-40.[HOU G L, LIU F G, XIAO L B, et al. The transmutation of settlements of prehistoric cultures in Eastern Qinghai caused by climate change. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2008, 63(1):34-40.]
[3]侯光良,刘峰贵,刘翠华,等.中全新世甘青地区古文化变迁的环境驱动.地理学报, 2010, 65(1):53-58.[HOU G L,LIU F G, LIU C H, et al. Prehistorical cultural transition forced by environmental change in mid-holocene in Gansu-Qinghai region. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 65(1):53-58.]
[4]侯光良,许长军,樊启顺.史前人类向青藏高原东北缘的三次扩张与环境演变.地理学报, 2010, 65(1):65-70.[HOU G L, XU C J, FAN Q S. Three expansions of prehistoric humans towards northeast margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and environmental change. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 65(1):65-70.]
[5]王建兵,汪治桂.青藏高原东北部边坡地带气温变化特征研究.干旱地区农业研究, 2007, 25(1):176-180.[WANG J B, WANG Z G. Variation characteristics of temperature in northeastern border region of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas, 2007, 25(1):176-180.]
[6]王建兵,李晓媛,王振国.青藏高原东北部农牧交错区气候变化及其对草场植被的影响.干旱地区农业研究, 2007,25(6):216-219.[WANG J B, LI X Y, WANG Z G. The climate varieties of agro-pastoral zone in the Northeastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and their impact on grassland vegetation. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas, 2007, 25(6):216-219.]
[7]姚瑶,张鑫,马全,等.青海省东部农业区区域干旱指标及干旱变化规律.西北农林科技大学学报:自然科学版,2014, 42(12):208-213.[YAO Y, ZHANG X, MA Q, et al. Regional drought indexes and its variation in east agricultural region of Qinghai province. Journal of Northwest A&F University:Natural Science Edition, 2014, 42(12):208-213.]
[8]姚瑶,张鑫,马全,等.青海省东部农业区作物生长期不同气象干旱指标应用研究.自然灾害学报, 2014, 23(4):177-184.[YAO Y, ZHANG X, MA Q, et al. Application research on different drought indices in crop growing period at east agricultural region of Qinghai province. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2014, 23(4):177-184.]
[9]姚瑶,张鑫,马全,等.基于SPI青海省东部农业区季节干旱变化分析.灌溉排水学报, 2013, 32(6):96-100.[YAO Y,ZHANG X, MA Q, et al. Analysis on evolution of seasonal drought in eastern agriculture region Qinghai province based on SPI. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage, 2013, 32(6):96-100.]
[10]廖清飞,张鑫,马全,等.青海省东部农业区植被覆盖时空演变遥感监测与分析.生态学报, 2014, 34(20):5936-5943.[LIAO Q F, ZHANG X, MA Q, et al. Spatiotemporal variation of fractional vegetation cover and remote sensing monitoring in the eastern agricultural region of Qinghai province. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2014, 34(20):5936-5943.]
[11]李春晖,郑小康,杨志峰,等.黄河天然径流量变化趋势及其影响分析.北京师范大学学报:自然科学版, 2009, 45(1):80-85.[LI C H, ZHENG X K, YANG Z F, et al. Trends of annual natural runoff in the Yellow River Basin. Journal of Beijing Normal University:Natural Science Edition, 2009, 45(1):80-85.]
[12]李江风,袁玉江,由希尧,等.树木年轮水文学研究与应用.北京:科学出版社, 2000.[LI J F, YUAN Y J, YOU X Y,et al. Research and Application of Tree Ring Hydrology. Beijing:Science Press, 2000.]
[13]中国气象局气候变化中心.中国气候变化监测公报.北京:科学出版社, 2017.[Climate Change Center of China Meteorological Administration. China Climate Change Monitoring Bulletin. Beijing:Science Press, 2017.]
[14] LI L, YANG S, WANG Z Y, et al. Evidence of warming and wetting climate over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 2010, 42(4):449-457.
[15]何敏,许力,宋文玲.南海夏季风爆发日期和强度的短期气候预测方法研究.气象, 2002, 28(10):9-14.[HE M, XU L,SONG W L. Short range climate prediction of the onset and intensity of South China Sea summer monsoon. Meteorological Monthly, 2002, 28(10):9-14.]
[16]周长艳,李跃清,李薇,等.青藏高原东部及邻近地区水汽输送的气候特征.高原气象, 2005, 24(6):880-888.[ZHOU C Y, LI Y Q, LI W, et al. Climatological characteristics of water vapor transport over eastern part of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and its surroundings. Plateau Meteorology, 2005, 24(6):880-888.]
[17]侯亚红,杨修群,李刚.冬季西伯利亚高压变化特征及其与中国气温的关系.气象科技, 2007, 35(5):646-650.[HOU Y H, YANG X Q, LI G. Variation features of Siberian High and relation with winter temperature in China. Meteorological Science and Technology, 2007, 35(5):646-650.]
[18]李栋梁,何金海,汤绪,等.青藏高原地面加热场强度与ENSO循环的关系.高原气象, 2007, 26(1):39-46.[LI D L,HE J H, TANG X, et al. The relationship between the intensity of surface heating fields over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and ENSO cycle. Plateau Meteorology, 2007, 26(1):39-46.]
[19]《第三次气候变化国家评估报告》编辑委员会.第三次气候变化国家评估报告.北京:科学出版社, 2015.[Editorial Committee of National Assessment Report on Climate Change. Third National Assessment Report on Climate Change.Beijing:Science Press, 2015.]
[20]王可丽,江灏,赵红岩,等.西风带与季风对中国西北地区的水汽输送.水科学进展, 2005, 16(3):432-438.[WANG K L, JIANG H, ZHAO H Y, et al. Atmospheric water vapor transport from westerly and monsoon over the Northwest China. Advances in Water Science, 2005, 16(3):432-438.]
[21]李林,申红艳,李红梅,等.柴达木盆地气候变化的区域显著性及其成因研究.自然资源学报, 2015, 30(4):641-650.[LI L, SHEN H Y, LI H M, et al. Regional differences of climate change in qaidam basin and its contributing factors.Journal of Natural Resources, 2005, 16(3):432-438.]
[22]李林,时兴合,申红艳,等. 1960-2009年青海湖水位波动的气候成因探讨及其未来趋势预测.自然资源学报, 2011,26(9):1566-1574.[LI L, SHI X H, SHEN H Y, et al. Cause of water level fluctuation in Qinghai Lake from 1960 to2009 and its future trend forecasting. Journal of Natural Resources, 2011, 26(9):1566-1574.]
[2]侯光良,刘峰贵,萧凌波,等.青海东部高庙盆地史前文化聚落演变与气候变化.地理学报, 2008, 63(1):34-40.[HOU G L, LIU F G, XIAO L B, et al. The transmutation of settlements of prehistoric cultures in Eastern Qinghai caused by climate change. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2008, 63(1):34-40.]
[3]侯光良,刘峰贵,刘翠华,等.中全新世甘青地区古文化变迁的环境驱动.地理学报, 2010, 65(1):53-58.[HOU G L,LIU F G, LIU C H, et al. Prehistorical cultural transition forced by environmental change in mid-holocene in Gansu-Qinghai region. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 65(1):53-58.]
[4]侯光良,许长军,樊启顺.史前人类向青藏高原东北缘的三次扩张与环境演变.地理学报, 2010, 65(1):65-70.[HOU G L, XU C J, FAN Q S. Three expansions of prehistoric humans towards northeast margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and environmental change. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 65(1):65-70.]
[5]王建兵,汪治桂.青藏高原东北部边坡地带气温变化特征研究.干旱地区农业研究, 2007, 25(1):176-180.[WANG J B, WANG Z G. Variation characteristics of temperature in northeastern border region of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas, 2007, 25(1):176-180.]
[6]王建兵,李晓媛,王振国.青藏高原东北部农牧交错区气候变化及其对草场植被的影响.干旱地区农业研究, 2007,25(6):216-219.[WANG J B, LI X Y, WANG Z G. The climate varieties of agro-pastoral zone in the Northeastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and their impact on grassland vegetation. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas, 2007, 25(6):216-219.]
[7]姚瑶,张鑫,马全,等.青海省东部农业区区域干旱指标及干旱变化规律.西北农林科技大学学报:自然科学版,2014, 42(12):208-213.[YAO Y, ZHANG X, MA Q, et al. Regional drought indexes and its variation in east agricultural region of Qinghai province. Journal of Northwest A&F University:Natural Science Edition, 2014, 42(12):208-213.]
[8]姚瑶,张鑫,马全,等.青海省东部农业区作物生长期不同气象干旱指标应用研究.自然灾害学报, 2014, 23(4):177-184.[YAO Y, ZHANG X, MA Q, et al. Application research on different drought indices in crop growing period at east agricultural region of Qinghai province. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2014, 23(4):177-184.]
[9]姚瑶,张鑫,马全,等.基于SPI青海省东部农业区季节干旱变化分析.灌溉排水学报, 2013, 32(6):96-100.[YAO Y,ZHANG X, MA Q, et al. Analysis on evolution of seasonal drought in eastern agriculture region Qinghai province based on SPI. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage, 2013, 32(6):96-100.]
[10]廖清飞,张鑫,马全,等.青海省东部农业区植被覆盖时空演变遥感监测与分析.生态学报, 2014, 34(20):5936-5943.[LIAO Q F, ZHANG X, MA Q, et al. Spatiotemporal variation of fractional vegetation cover and remote sensing monitoring in the eastern agricultural region of Qinghai province. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2014, 34(20):5936-5943.]
[11]李春晖,郑小康,杨志峰,等.黄河天然径流量变化趋势及其影响分析.北京师范大学学报:自然科学版, 2009, 45(1):80-85.[LI C H, ZHENG X K, YANG Z F, et al. Trends of annual natural runoff in the Yellow River Basin. Journal of Beijing Normal University:Natural Science Edition, 2009, 45(1):80-85.]
[12]李江风,袁玉江,由希尧,等.树木年轮水文学研究与应用.北京:科学出版社, 2000.[LI J F, YUAN Y J, YOU X Y,et al. Research and Application of Tree Ring Hydrology. Beijing:Science Press, 2000.]
[13]中国气象局气候变化中心.中国气候变化监测公报.北京:科学出版社, 2017.[Climate Change Center of China Meteorological Administration. China Climate Change Monitoring Bulletin. Beijing:Science Press, 2017.]
[14] LI L, YANG S, WANG Z Y, et al. Evidence of warming and wetting climate over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 2010, 42(4):449-457.
[15]何敏,许力,宋文玲.南海夏季风爆发日期和强度的短期气候预测方法研究.气象, 2002, 28(10):9-14.[HE M, XU L,SONG W L. Short range climate prediction of the onset and intensity of South China Sea summer monsoon. Meteorological Monthly, 2002, 28(10):9-14.]
[16]周长艳,李跃清,李薇,等.青藏高原东部及邻近地区水汽输送的气候特征.高原气象, 2005, 24(6):880-888.[ZHOU C Y, LI Y Q, LI W, et al. Climatological characteristics of water vapor transport over eastern part of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and its surroundings. Plateau Meteorology, 2005, 24(6):880-888.]
[17]侯亚红,杨修群,李刚.冬季西伯利亚高压变化特征及其与中国气温的关系.气象科技, 2007, 35(5):646-650.[HOU Y H, YANG X Q, LI G. Variation features of Siberian High and relation with winter temperature in China. Meteorological Science and Technology, 2007, 35(5):646-650.]
[18]李栋梁,何金海,汤绪,等.青藏高原地面加热场强度与ENSO循环的关系.高原气象, 2007, 26(1):39-46.[LI D L,HE J H, TANG X, et al. The relationship between the intensity of surface heating fields over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and ENSO cycle. Plateau Meteorology, 2007, 26(1):39-46.]
[19]《第三次气候变化国家评估报告》编辑委员会.第三次气候变化国家评估报告.北京:科学出版社, 2015.[Editorial Committee of National Assessment Report on Climate Change. Third National Assessment Report on Climate Change.Beijing:Science Press, 2015.]
[20]王可丽,江灏,赵红岩,等.西风带与季风对中国西北地区的水汽输送.水科学进展, 2005, 16(3):432-438.[WANG K L, JIANG H, ZHAO H Y, et al. Atmospheric water vapor transport from westerly and monsoon over the Northwest China. Advances in Water Science, 2005, 16(3):432-438.]
[21]李林,申红艳,李红梅,等.柴达木盆地气候变化的区域显著性及其成因研究.自然资源学报, 2015, 30(4):641-650.[LI L, SHEN H Y, LI H M, et al. Regional differences of climate change in qaidam basin and its contributing factors.Journal of Natural Resources, 2005, 16(3):432-438.]
[22]李林,时兴合,申红艳,等. 1960-2009年青海湖水位波动的气候成因探讨及其未来趋势预测.自然资源学报, 2011,26(9):1566-1574.[LI L, SHI X H, SHEN H Y, et al. Cause of water level fluctuation in Qinghai Lake from 1960 to2009 and its future trend forecasting. Journal of Natural Resources, 2011, 26(9):1566-1574.]
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |