济南市农地流转市场发育程度评价研究
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摘要
农地流转中市场发育情况的研究可以较好地判断未来农地利用可能发生的风险,以济南市农地流转中的市场发育程度评价指标为例,研究农地流转市场的发育程度,以采取切实可行的措施完善农地流转制度。运用特尔菲法确定市场发育程度评价指标体系,并对指标数据进行无量纲处理,用熵值法计算指标权重,利用线性加权法计算市场发育综合评价值,采用正态分布"3σ"方法确定市场发育程度阈值。在统计年限内,济南市2009年、2010年土地流转市场处于过冷区间,2011年偏冷,2012年、2013年正常,2014年、2015年过热,说明农地流转市场发育较快,但滞后于流转量的变化。所选取的评价指体系能够较好的反映济南市农地流转市场发育情况,市场发育程度阈值计算比较科学合理。在当前农地流转市场的培育阶段,当流转量开始下降的时候,需要采取措施以防止流转量的继续下滑,以避免对农地流转市场的发展产生不利影响,进而影响农业经济的发展。
The study on the situation of farmland circulation market development can better determines the possible risks of farmland use which will happen in the future. Taking the market development of farmland circulation in Jinan city as an example,development degree of farmland circulation market has been studied,and practical measures have been carried out to improve the circulation system of farmland. By using the Delphi Method,the evaluation index system has been set up,index data has been handled by using dimensionless method,the index weight has been calculated by using entropy method,the market development comprehensive evaluation has been calculated by using linear weighted method,and the threshold level of market development has been determined by using normal distribution " 3σ" method. It is showed that the farmland circulation market in Jinan city is"under-cooling"in 2009 and 2010,"cold"in 2011,the "normal"in 2012 and 2013,and "overheating"in 2014 and 2015,which is indicated that the development of farmland circulation market changes rapidly,but lagging behind the circulation amount. The selected evaluation index system can better reflect the development of farmland circulation market in Ji' nan city,and the calculation of market development threshold is more scientific and reasonable. In the current stage of cultivating the farmland circulation market,it is necessary to take measures to prevent the development of farmland circulation and influence the development of agricultural economy.
The study on the situation of farmland circulation market development can better determines the possible risks of farmland use which will happen in the future. Taking the market development of farmland circulation in Jinan city as an example,development degree of farmland circulation market has been studied,and practical measures have been carried out to improve the circulation system of farmland. By using the Delphi Method,the evaluation index system has been set up,index data has been handled by using dimensionless method,the index weight has been calculated by using entropy method,the market development comprehensive evaluation has been calculated by using linear weighted method,and the threshold level of market development has been determined by using normal distribution " 3σ" method. It is showed that the farmland circulation market in Jinan city is"under-cooling"in 2009 and 2010,"cold"in 2011,the "normal"in 2012 and 2013,and "overheating"in 2014 and 2015,which is indicated that the development of farmland circulation market changes rapidly,but lagging behind the circulation amount. The selected evaluation index system can better reflect the development of farmland circulation market in Ji' nan city,and the calculation of market development threshold is more scientific and reasonable. In the current stage of cultivating the farmland circulation market,it is necessary to take measures to prevent the development of farmland circulation and influence the development of agricultural economy.
引文
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[12]佟绍伟,刘燕萍,钟京涛.落实权利主体完善收益分配——谈如何健全农地产权制度推进集体土地流转[J].资源导刊,2009(2):16-17.
[13]高海,欧阳仁根.农地承包经营权权利属性的跨越与流转障碍的克服——以民法用益物权向经济法权利的跨越为路径[J].南京农业大学学报(社会科学版),2010(2):59-65.
[14]曾福生.建立农地流转保障粮食安全的激励与约束机制[J].农业经济问题,2015(1):15-23+110.
[15]王权典,付坚强.新时期农地流转创新模式与市场运行保障机制[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2013(5):46-54.
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[17]张月娥,杨庆媛,焦庆东,等.重庆市农村土地市场发育程度评价[J].西南大学学报(自然科学版),2011,33(4):156-161.
[18]陈清明,马洪钧,谌思.农村产权交易市场发育现状及绩效评价——基于重庆市土地流转问卷调研[J].调研世界,2015(5):32-35.
[19]唐高光,陈士银.广东省农地内部流转市场发育度评价[J].科技资讯,2016,14(14):56-59.
[20]张敏丽,杨长林.基于经济周期理论的房地产景气监测系统构建及实证[J].统计与决策,2014(15):23-26.
[21]谢冰,戴盛,蔡洋萍.我国房地产市场景气状况的宏观影响因素研究[J].财经理论与实践,2011(1):92-95.
[22]任荣荣.房地产市场运行景气的测度与评价[J].经济管理,2011(6):189-193.
[23]瞿忠琼,章明,夏敏,等.城乡建设用地流转中置换指标的预警研究——以重庆市地票交易为例[J].中国土地科学,2015(5):39-47.
[2]文雄,曾福生.从农业劳动力视角看我国农地流转的成因[J].经济地理,2011(4):651-654.
[3]曾福生,唐浩.农地流转模式的成因、绩效及发展趋势[J].农业经济与管理,2010(1):29-37.
[4]郭熙保,苏桂榕.我国农地流转制度的演变、存在问题与改革的新思路[J].江西财经大学学报,2016(1):78-89.
[5]庞丽铷,王文昌.新时期中国农地流转问题探析[J].中国农学通报,2007(5):538-541.
[6]范怀超.四川丘陵地区农地流转的问题与对策[J].经济地理,2007(2):317-322.
[7]李启宇,张文.当前农地流转中的主要问题及对策——以成都平原为例[J].农村经济,2005(9):33-35.
[8]张建,诸培新.不同农地流转模式对农业生产效率的影响分析——以江苏省四县为例[J].资源科学,2017(4):629-640.
[9]罗兴,马九杰.不同土地流转模式下的农地经营权抵押属性比较[J].农业经济问题,2017(2):22-32.
[10]夏玉莲,曾福生.农民信息弱势与农地流转收益分配研究[J].当代经济管理,2013(8):62-65.
[11]邓宏乾,彭银.土地流转、收益分配与农地制度结构性变革[J].江汉论坛,2016(10):5-10.
[12]佟绍伟,刘燕萍,钟京涛.落实权利主体完善收益分配——谈如何健全农地产权制度推进集体土地流转[J].资源导刊,2009(2):16-17.
[13]高海,欧阳仁根.农地承包经营权权利属性的跨越与流转障碍的克服——以民法用益物权向经济法权利的跨越为路径[J].南京农业大学学报(社会科学版),2010(2):59-65.
[14]曾福生.建立农地流转保障粮食安全的激励与约束机制[J].农业经济问题,2015(1):15-23+110.
[15]王权典,付坚强.新时期农地流转创新模式与市场运行保障机制[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2013(5):46-54.
[16]方鹏.中国农村土地市场发育的理论分析[J].淮阴师范学院学报(哲学社会科学版),2001(3):308-312.
[17]张月娥,杨庆媛,焦庆东,等.重庆市农村土地市场发育程度评价[J].西南大学学报(自然科学版),2011,33(4):156-161.
[18]陈清明,马洪钧,谌思.农村产权交易市场发育现状及绩效评价——基于重庆市土地流转问卷调研[J].调研世界,2015(5):32-35.
[19]唐高光,陈士银.广东省农地内部流转市场发育度评价[J].科技资讯,2016,14(14):56-59.
[20]张敏丽,杨长林.基于经济周期理论的房地产景气监测系统构建及实证[J].统计与决策,2014(15):23-26.
[21]谢冰,戴盛,蔡洋萍.我国房地产市场景气状况的宏观影响因素研究[J].财经理论与实践,2011(1):92-95.
[22]任荣荣.房地产市场运行景气的测度与评价[J].经济管理,2011(6):189-193.
[23]瞿忠琼,章明,夏敏,等.城乡建设用地流转中置换指标的预警研究——以重庆市地票交易为例[J].中国土地科学,2015(5):39-47.