“先产后城”抑或“先城后产”?——来自中国省级面板数据的协整分析
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摘要
构建制造业集聚E-G指数和新型城镇化水平评价指标体系,对2003—2016年中国制造业集聚水平和新型城镇化综合发展水平进行了测度。基于动态面板协整模型和面板误差修正模型,对制造业集聚与新型城镇化的长期协整关系与短期关系进行了分析。研究结果表明:(1)在长期,制造业集聚对新型城镇化具有显著的促进作用,而新型城镇化对制造业集聚影响甚微,但具有潜在的抑制效应,制造业发展与新型城镇化建设在整体上表现为"先产后城"的发展路径;(2)在短期,制造业集聚与新型城镇化具有相互促进的现象,二者实现了"产城融合";(3)在长期和短期,制造业集聚和新型城镇化均具有显著的路径依赖特征,前期良好的发展对后期的发展具有促进作用。
Establish a manufacturing agglomeration E-G index and a new-type urbanization level evaluation index system. Measure the level of China ' s manufacturing agglomeration and the comprehensive development level of new-type urbanization in 2003-2016. Based on the dynamic panel cointegration model and the panel error correction model,this paper studies the long-term cointegration relationship and short-term relationship between manufacturing agglomeration and new-type urbanization. The results show that:(1)In the long-term,manufacturing agglomeration has a significant role in promoting new-type urbanization,while new-type urbanization has little impact on manufacturing agglomeration,but has potential inhibitory effects. The development of manufacturing industry and new-type urbanization have a path of " First industry,post city".(2)In the short-term,manufacturing agglomeration and new urbanization have mutually promoted phenomena,and the two have realized " industry-city integration".(3) In the long-term and short-term,both manufacturing agglomeration and new-type urbanization have significant path dependence characteristics,and good development in the early stage has a positive effect on later development.
Establish a manufacturing agglomeration E-G index and a new-type urbanization level evaluation index system. Measure the level of China ' s manufacturing agglomeration and the comprehensive development level of new-type urbanization in 2003-2016. Based on the dynamic panel cointegration model and the panel error correction model,this paper studies the long-term cointegration relationship and short-term relationship between manufacturing agglomeration and new-type urbanization. The results show that:(1)In the long-term,manufacturing agglomeration has a significant role in promoting new-type urbanization,while new-type urbanization has little impact on manufacturing agglomeration,but has potential inhibitory effects. The development of manufacturing industry and new-type urbanization have a path of " First industry,post city".(2)In the short-term,manufacturing agglomeration and new urbanization have mutually promoted phenomena,and the two have realized " industry-city integration".(3) In the long-term and short-term,both manufacturing agglomeration and new-type urbanization have significant path dependence characteristics,and good development in the early stage has a positive effect on later development.
引文
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[2]王国刚.城镇化:中国经济发展方式转变的重心所在[J].经济研究,2010(12).
[3]李扬,张晓晶.“新常态”:经济发展的逻辑与前景[J].经济研究,2015(5).
[4]Friedman M. The Adam Smith Address:The Suicidal Impulse of the Business Commmunity[J]. Business Economics,1990,25(1).
[5]曾煜,陈方亮.论产业聚集与我国城镇化建设[J].江西社会科学,2004(7).
[6]杨仁发,李娜娜.产业集聚能否促进城镇化[J].财经科学,2016(6).
[7]谢治春.制造业集聚与城镇化推进:基于省际面板数据的空间计量分析[J].当代经济科学,2014(4).
[8]张治栋,孟东涛.长江经济带产业集聚推动城镇化了吗?——基于108个地级市2005-2015年数据的实证分析[J].华东经济管理,2018(6).
[9]胡伶俐,施祖麟.产业集聚推动城镇化发展机制研究——以桐乡市为例[J].特区经济,2006(8).
[10]李华.基于产业空间集聚视角的中国城镇化发展研究[D].武汉大学,2012.
[11]吴福象,沈浩平.新型城镇化、创新要素空间集聚与城市群产业发展[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2013(4).
[12]陆根尧,盛龙.产业集聚与城市化互动发展机制研究:理论与实证[J].发展研究,2012(10).
[13]王琦,陈才.产业集群与区域经济空间的耦合度分析[J].地理科学,2008(2).
[14]孙叶飞,夏青,周敏.新型城镇化发展与产业结构变迁的经济增长效应[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2016(11).
[15]刘望辉,张奋勤,刘习平.产业集聚与新型城镇化的关系的实证研究[J].统计与决策,2015(24).
[16]张肃.中国城乡居民信息消费差异性的面板协整分析[J].统计与决策,2017(1).
[17]Arellano M,Bond S. Some tests of specification for panel data:Monte carlo evidence and an application to employment equations[J]. Review of Economic Studies,1991(38).
[18]Arellano M,Bover O. Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models[J]. Journal of Econometrics,2004(1).
[19]Blundell R,Bond S. Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models[J]. Economics Papers,1998(1).
[20]Windmeijer F. A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators[J]. Journal of Econometrics,2000(1).
[21]Roodman D. How to do xtabond2:An introduction to"Difference"and"System"GMM in Stata[J]. Stata Journal,2009(1).
[22]詹宇波,张卉.修正的E-G指数与中国制造业区域集聚度量[J].东岳论丛,2010(2).
[23]熊湘辉,徐璋勇.中国新型城镇化水平及动力因素测度研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2018(2).
[24]Westerlund,J. 2007. Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,69.
[25]纪玉俊,李志婷.中国制造业集聚与城镇化的交互影响——基于30个省份面板数据的分析[J].城市问题,2018(2).