基于栅格数据的气象灾害风险评估
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摘要
全球变化背景下,洪涝、干旱、高温热浪和低温冷冻等气象灾害频发,给农业生产和生态环境带来严重损害.气象灾害风险评估与区划是灾害评估与管理的重要内容,本文利用江苏省气象水文数据、基础地理信息数据、社会经济数据、灾害数据,通过分析气象灾害(洪涝、干旱、高温热浪和低温冷冻)致灾因子、孕灾环境因子、承灾体易损性因子和防灾减灾因子等指标,利用GIS技术,建立了江苏省气象灾害风险评估模型,进而对气象灾害进行风险评价与区划.结果表明:(1)高温灾害苏南地区风险最大,苏北地区风险最小;(2)低温灾害风险在省内从北向南递降,高风险区位于苏北地区,低风险区位于苏南地区;(3)洪涝灾害高风险区主要位于苏北地区,淮安、宿迁、连云港以及盐城北部属洪涝灾害的高风险区,镇江、泰州和南通北部属于中风险区,而低风险区主要分布在徐州西部,无锡、苏州以及南通东南部;(4)旱灾风险从苏南向苏北递增,最大区域为宿迁、连云港西部及徐州东部,旱灾风险低值区位于苏州、无锡、镇江、泰州及南通北部.风险区划结果能直观反映出气象灾害的区域性差异,且与致灾因子危险性分布图一致,因此对气象灾害进行全面精准的预报是进行防灾减灾的主体,同时还应采取措施降低孕灾环境的敏感性,成灾体的易损性以及加强防灾减灾能力建设.
Under the context of global changes,meteorological disasters such as floods,droughts,hightemperature heat waves and low-temperature freezing happens frequently,resulting in serious damages to agricultural and ecological environment.Meteorological disaster risk assessment and zoning are important parts of disaster assessment and management.In this study,meteorological and hydrological data,basic geographic information data,socio-economic data and disaster data of Jiangsu Province were collected to analyze meteorological disasters(flood,drought,high temperature heat wave and low temperature freezing).Considering of disaster-causing factors,the sensitivity of disaster environment,the vulnerability of disaster bearing body,and the ability of disaster resistance,the regional differences of disaster risk in Jiangsu province were comprehensively evaluated.The weight of each index was given by Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP),and the risk division was realized by GIS spatial analysis.Results show that:(1)high temperature disasters caused the greatest and lowest risk in southern and northern Jiangsu,respectively;(2)the risk of low temperature disasters descends from north to south,the area with higher risk is located in northern,and the area with low risk is distributed in southern;(3)The high-risk areas for flood disasters are mainly located in the northern Jiangsu Province,especially in Huai'an,Suqian,Lianyungang and Yancheng.Wuxi,Zhenjiang,Yangzhou and Nantong are the areas with central risk,while low-risk areas are mainly distributed in western Xuzhou,Suzhou and southeast of Nantong;(4)Drought Risk increases from southern to northern in Jiangsu.The areas with the greatest risk of drought are Suqian,western Lianyungang and eastern Xuzhou,and the low-risk areas of drought are located in Suzhou,Wuxi,Zhenjiang,Taizhou and northern Nantong.Results of risk zoning can directly reflect the regional differences of meteorological disasters,it is consistent with the spatial distribution of disaster-causing factors.Therefore,comprehensive and accurate forecast of meteorological disasters is the main part of disaster prevention and mitigation.Meanwhile,measures should be taken to reduce the sensitivity of disaster environment,the vulnerability of disaster bearing body improve our ability to prevent and mitigate natural disaster.This paper not only provide research methods for meteorological disaster risk assessment,but also give reference for disaster prevention and mitigation in Jiangsu Province.
Under the context of global changes,meteorological disasters such as floods,droughts,hightemperature heat waves and low-temperature freezing happens frequently,resulting in serious damages to agricultural and ecological environment.Meteorological disaster risk assessment and zoning are important parts of disaster assessment and management.In this study,meteorological and hydrological data,basic geographic information data,socio-economic data and disaster data of Jiangsu Province were collected to analyze meteorological disasters(flood,drought,high temperature heat wave and low temperature freezing).Considering of disaster-causing factors,the sensitivity of disaster environment,the vulnerability of disaster bearing body,and the ability of disaster resistance,the regional differences of disaster risk in Jiangsu province were comprehensively evaluated.The weight of each index was given by Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP),and the risk division was realized by GIS spatial analysis.Results show that:(1)high temperature disasters caused the greatest and lowest risk in southern and northern Jiangsu,respectively;(2)the risk of low temperature disasters descends from north to south,the area with higher risk is located in northern,and the area with low risk is distributed in southern;(3)The high-risk areas for flood disasters are mainly located in the northern Jiangsu Province,especially in Huai'an,Suqian,Lianyungang and Yancheng.Wuxi,Zhenjiang,Yangzhou and Nantong are the areas with central risk,while low-risk areas are mainly distributed in western Xuzhou,Suzhou and southeast of Nantong;(4)Drought Risk increases from southern to northern in Jiangsu.The areas with the greatest risk of drought are Suqian,western Lianyungang and eastern Xuzhou,and the low-risk areas of drought are located in Suzhou,Wuxi,Zhenjiang,Taizhou and northern Nantong.Results of risk zoning can directly reflect the regional differences of meteorological disasters,it is consistent with the spatial distribution of disaster-causing factors.Therefore,comprehensive and accurate forecast of meteorological disasters is the main part of disaster prevention and mitigation.Meanwhile,measures should be taken to reduce the sensitivity of disaster environment,the vulnerability of disaster bearing body improve our ability to prevent and mitigate natural disaster.This paper not only provide research methods for meteorological disaster risk assessment,but also give reference for disaster prevention and mitigation in Jiangsu Province.
引文
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[21]叶正伟,许有鹏,徐金涛.江淮地区里下河地区洪涝灾害演变趋势与成灾机理分析[J].地理科学,2009,29(6):880-885.
[22]包云轩,覃文娜,高苹,等.江淮地区近30年冰雹灾害的时空变化规律[J].自然灾害学报,2012,21(5):197-206.
[23]黄耀欢,江东,付晶莹.中国公里网格GDP分布数据集.地理学报,2014,69(增刊):45-48.
[24]徐新良.中国人口空间分布公里网格数据集[EB/OL].中国科学院资源环境科学数据中心数据注册与出版系统,http://www.resdc.cn/DOI,2017.DOI:10.12078/2017121101.
[2]杨光义,焦旭东.全球变化对南太平洋岛国图瓦卢的影响分析[J].聊城大学学报(自然科学版),2016,29(1):52-58.
[3]陈亚宁,王怀军,王志成,等.西北干旱区极端气候水文事件特征分析[J].干旱区地理,2017,40(1):1-9.
[4]刘彤,闫天池.我国的主要气象灾害及其经济损失[J].自然灾害学报,2011,20(2):90-95.
[5]薛颖,高超,张勋,等.淮河上游干流径流量对不同气候要素变化的响应研究[J].水文,2017,37(3):22-28.
[6]Scawthorn C,Flores P,Blais N,et al.HAZUS-MH flood loss estimation methodology II Damage and loss assessment[J].Natural Hazards Review,2006,7(2):72-81.
[7]Boliang L,Zhang C,Wan H.Flooding risk assessment of rice production based on information diffusion in Hunan Province[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2009,63(S1):458-462.
[8]Stocker T.IPCC,2013:Technical summary in:climate change 2013:the physical science basis contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental panel on climate change[J].Computational Geometry,2013,18(2):95-123.
[9]张继权.主要气象灾害风险评价与管理的数量化方法及其应用[M].北京:北京师范大学出版社,2007.
[10]史培军.中国自然灾害风险地图集[M].北京:科学出版社,2011.
[11]张菡,郭翔,王锐婷,等.四川省暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划研究[J].中国农学通报,2013,29(26):165-171.
[12]柳媛普,王素萍,王劲松,等.气候变暖背景下西南地区干旱灾害风险评估[J].自然资源学报,2018,33(02):325-336.
[13]姜蓝齐,马艳敏,张丽娟,等.基于GIS的黑龙江省洪涝灾害风险评估与区划[J].自然灾害学报,2013,22(05):238-246.
[14]唐为安,田红,杨元建,等.基于GIS的低温冷冻灾害风险区划研究-以安徽省为例[J].地理科学,2012,32(3);356-361.
[15]徐玉霞.基于GIS的陕西省洪涝灾害风险评估及区划[J].灾害学,2017,32(02):103-108.
[16]徐玉霞,许小明,马楠.县域尺度下的陕西省洪涝灾害风险评估及区划[J].干旱区地理,2018,41(02):306-313.
[17]信志红,薛凯,王俊喜.东营市寒潮低温灾害风险区划方法探析[J].农业灾害研究,2013,3(7):21-24.
[18]王志春,包云辉,史玉严.基于GIS的赤峰市干旱灾害风险区划与分析[J].中国农学通报,2012,28(32):271-275.
[19]马进.基于GIS的洛阳市高温灾害风险区划[J].气象与环境科学,2012,35(4):62-68.
[20]缪启龙,陈鑫,俞布,等.杭州市暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划[J].长江流域资源与环境,2012,10(S2):163-168.
[21]叶正伟,许有鹏,徐金涛.江淮地区里下河地区洪涝灾害演变趋势与成灾机理分析[J].地理科学,2009,29(6):880-885.
[22]包云轩,覃文娜,高苹,等.江淮地区近30年冰雹灾害的时空变化规律[J].自然灾害学报,2012,21(5):197-206.
[23]黄耀欢,江东,付晶莹.中国公里网格GDP分布数据集.地理学报,2014,69(增刊):45-48.
[24]徐新良.中国人口空间分布公里网格数据集[EB/OL].中国科学院资源环境科学数据中心数据注册与出版系统,http://www.resdc.cn/DOI,2017.DOI:10.12078/2017121101.