1961-2015年华北平原夏玉米生长季气候年型及其影响分析
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摘要
利用华北平原夏玉米种植区55个气象站点1961-2015年逐日地面观测资料,依据夏玉米生长季平均气温、太阳总辐射和降水量的异常度划分10个气候年型,分析气候年型及其潜在产量的空间分布和变化特征,定量研究气候变化对不同气候年型的影响。结果表明:近55a来华北平原夏玉米生长季少雨年型发生频次最多,平均为15.8次;多雨年型和寡照年型次之,暖湿年型和高温年型最少。河北中部和山东的中部地区容易出现少雨年型和多雨年型,暖干年型主要出现在华北平原北部地区,寡照年型空间差异性较小。20世纪90年代以来研究区正常年型和多雨年型发生的频率显著减少,暖年(暖干年型、暖湿年型和高温年型)和寡照年型显著增加(P<0.05)。降水和光照是限制华北平原夏玉米气候潜在产量的主要因子,与正常年型相比,降水偏少的年型(少雨年型、暖干年型和冷干年型)气候潜在产量减少超过15%,其中暖干年型对潜在产量影响最大;寡照年型下潜在产量减少了12.5%,且地区间存在显著差异。
Based on the 1961-2015 ground surface data from 55 meteorological stations in the summer maize plating area of the North China Plain, annual climate types and its impact on potential summer maize yield were analyzed. Ten annual climate types were determined by calculating the abnormality of mean temperature, precipitation and solar radiation in summer maize growing season. In the past 55 years, the drought year showed the greatest frequencies with the average value of 15.8, followed by the rainy year and the cloudy year, and the least frequencies were the warm and rainy year, as well as the high temperature year. The drought year and the wet year both most occurred in the middle east of Hebei and the middle east of Shandong, and the warm and dry year was mainly found in the northern North China Plain. The cloudy year showed least variations among different regions. Both the normal year and the rainy year showed significant decreasing trends, while significant increasing trends were found for the frequencies of the warm and dry year, the warm and wet year, the high temperature year, and the cloudy year(P<0.05). Precipitation and solar radiation are the main limiting factors for the potential yield of summer maize in the North China Plain. Compared with the normal year, the potential maize yield in the less rainy year(including the drought year, the warm and dry year and the cold and dry year) reduced by more than 15%, and the warm and dry year type had the greatest influence on the potential yield. The cloudy year showed 12.5% lower potential maize yield than the normal year, and significant differences were found among regions.
Based on the 1961-2015 ground surface data from 55 meteorological stations in the summer maize plating area of the North China Plain, annual climate types and its impact on potential summer maize yield were analyzed. Ten annual climate types were determined by calculating the abnormality of mean temperature, precipitation and solar radiation in summer maize growing season. In the past 55 years, the drought year showed the greatest frequencies with the average value of 15.8, followed by the rainy year and the cloudy year, and the least frequencies were the warm and rainy year, as well as the high temperature year. The drought year and the wet year both most occurred in the middle east of Hebei and the middle east of Shandong, and the warm and dry year was mainly found in the northern North China Plain. The cloudy year showed least variations among different regions. Both the normal year and the rainy year showed significant decreasing trends, while significant increasing trends were found for the frequencies of the warm and dry year, the warm and wet year, the high temperature year, and the cloudy year(P<0.05). Precipitation and solar radiation are the main limiting factors for the potential yield of summer maize in the North China Plain. Compared with the normal year, the potential maize yield in the less rainy year(including the drought year, the warm and dry year and the cold and dry year) reduced by more than 15%, and the warm and dry year type had the greatest influence on the potential yield. The cloudy year showed 12.5% lower potential maize yield than the normal year, and significant differences were found among regions.
引文
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[17]费宇红,张兆吉,张凤娥,等.气候变化和人类活动对华北平原水资源影响分析[J].地球学报,2007,28(6):567-571.Fei Y H,Zhang Z J,Zhang F E,et al.An analysis of the influence of human activity and climate change on water resources of the North China Plain[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,2007,28(6):567-571.(in Chinese)
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[19]孟林,刘新建,邬定荣,等.华北平原夏玉米主要生育期对气候变化的响应[J].中国农业气象,2015,36(4):375-382.Meng L,Liu X J,Wu D R,et al.Responses of summer maize main phenology to climate change in the north China Plain[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometerology,2015,36(4):375-382.(in Chinese)
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[23]张北赢,徐学选,刘文兆,等.黄土丘陵沟壑区不同降水年型下土壤水分动态[J].应用生态学报,2008,19(6):1234-1240.Zhang B Y,Xu X X,Liu W Z,et al.Dynamic changes of soil moisture in loess hilly and gully region under effects of different yearly precipitation pattems[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2018,19(6):1234-1240.(in Chinese)
[24]李秀芬,赵慧颖,朱海霞,等.黑龙江省玉米气候生产力演变及其对气候变化的响应[J].应用生态学报,2016,27(8):2561-2570.Li X F,Zhao H Y,Zhu H X,et al.Evolution of maize climate productivity and its response to climate change in Heilongjiang province[J].Journal of Applied Ecology,2016,27(8):2561-2570.(in Chinese)
[25]He D,Wang J,Dai T,et al.Impact of climate change on maize potential productivity and the potential productivity gap in Southwest China[J].J Meteor Res,2014,28:1155-1167.
[26]龙斯玉.我国的生理辐射分布及其生产潜力[J].气象科技资料,1976,(S1):51-58.Long S Y.The distribution of physiological radiation and its potential production in China[J].Meteorological Science and Technology Data,1976,(S1):51-58.(in Chinese)
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