杜特尔特政府对菲律宾南海政策的修正
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摘要
杜特尔特治下的菲律宾南海政策,比之前任阿基诺三世政府出现了从激进到温和的转变。从"联美制华"到"大国平衡",从挑起南海仲裁案到对仲裁结果冷处理,从高调挑衅中国底线到通过双多边谈话解决争端,从而缓和了南海局势。通过对阿基诺三世和杜特尔特两任政府差异性及延续性的比较分析,认为菲律宾南海政策的变化受国家利益认知变化、政治家族和利益集团、美国亚太政策及领导人个人背景和立场的影响。坚持领土声索、为自身谋取更大的领土权益是其南海政策的核心与实质,而其在对美和对华关系之间表现出的时而偏左、时而偏右的游移不定态度,是其为实现自身利益所做出的谨慎而深思熟虑的策略性选择。
The Philippine South Sea policy under Duterte administration has seen a radical to moderate transition compared with that of the previous Aquino III government. From "joining in the U. S. to sanction China"to"balancing the great power relations",from provoking the South China Sea arbitration case to the cold treatment of arbitration results,and from high-profile provocation of the Chinese bottom line to the settlement of disputes through bilateral and multilateral talks,the situation in the South China Sea has been eased. Through a comparative analysis of the differences and continuity between the two governments of Aquino III and Duterte,the paper argues that the changes of the Philippine policy in the South Sea are influenced by changes of its national interest perceptions,political families and interest groups,Asia-Pacific policies of the U. S.,and the leaders' personality traits. Insisting on its territorial claims and seeking to gain more interests related to territorial issues are the core and essential aspects of its policy in the South Sea,while the vacillating and nuanced attitude toward China and the United States is the tactical choice which is carefully and deliberately made for the sake of its interests.
The Philippine South Sea policy under Duterte administration has seen a radical to moderate transition compared with that of the previous Aquino III government. From "joining in the U. S. to sanction China"to"balancing the great power relations",from provoking the South China Sea arbitration case to the cold treatment of arbitration results,and from high-profile provocation of the Chinese bottom line to the settlement of disputes through bilateral and multilateral talks,the situation in the South China Sea has been eased. Through a comparative analysis of the differences and continuity between the two governments of Aquino III and Duterte,the paper argues that the changes of the Philippine policy in the South Sea are influenced by changes of its national interest perceptions,political families and interest groups,Asia-Pacific policies of the U. S.,and the leaders' personality traits. Insisting on its territorial claims and seeking to gain more interests related to territorial issues are the core and essential aspects of its policy in the South Sea,while the vacillating and nuanced attitude toward China and the United States is the tactical choice which is carefully and deliberately made for the sake of its interests.
引文
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(6)Trilateral Talks Enhance Cooperation between U. S.,Philippines and Japan[EB/OL]. http:∥www. c7f. navy. mil/Media/News/Display/Article/687962/trilateral-talks-enhance-cooperation-between-us-philippines-and-japan/,2016-03-08.
(7)2015 Accomplishment Report[EB/OL]. https:∥www. dfa. gov. ph/images/2016/Trasnparency/2015%20Accomplishment%20Report. pdf,2016-01.
(8)Ibid.
(9)“2014 Accomplishment Report-Advancing the Interests of the Philippines and the Filipino People”[EB/OL]. https:∥www. dfa. gov. ph/images/2015/center/doc/report_2014. pdf.
(1)中华人民共和国与菲律宾共和国联合声明[EB/OL]. http:∥www. fmprc. gov. cn/web/ziliao_674904/1179_674909/t1407676. shtml,2016-10-21.
(2)中国同菲律宾的关系[EB/OL]. http:∥www. fmprc. gov. cn/web/gjhdq_676201/gj_676203/yz_676205/1206_676452/sbgx_676456/.
(3)Duterte talks to Putin about distrust with US,hypocrisy of the West[EB/OL]. https:∥globalnation. inquirer. net/149832/duterte-talks-putin-distrust-us-hypocrisy-west,2016-11-20.
(4)Russia Offers Philippines Arms and Close Friendship[EB/OL]. https:∥www. reuters. com/article/us-philippines-russiamilitary-idUSKBN14O19W? feedT ype=RSS&feedN ame=worldN ews,2017-01-04.
(5)Duterte thanks Putin for Russia’s timely assistance in Marawi siege[EB/OL]. http:∥www. pna. gov. ph/articles/1015552,2017-11-10.
(6)2015 Accomplishment Report[EB/OL]. https:∥www. dfa. gov. ph/images/2016/Trasnparency/2015%20Accomplishment%20Report. pdf,2016-01.
(7)U. S. aircraft carrier patrolling the disputed South China Sea[EB/OL]. https:∥news. mb. com. ph/2017/03/04/top-phofficials-visit-us-carrier-in-south-china-sea/,2017-03-04.
(8)南海仲裁案:美国才是幕后的“仲裁员”[EB/OL]. http:∥opinion. huanqiu. com/1152/2016-05/8990888. html,2016-05-30.
(9)2014 Accomplishment Report-Advancing the Interests of the Philippines and the Filipino People[EB/OL]. https:∥www.dfa. gov. ph/images/2015/center/doc/report_2014. pdf,2015-01.
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(2)蔡淳.南海仲裁案是美国一手导演的闹剧[N].经济日报,2016-07-12(4).
(3)要撕破仲裁庭的面纱——外交部副部长刘振民就南海仲裁案仲裁庭所谓裁决约束力问题答记者问[EB/OL]. http:∥www. fmprc. gov. cn/nanhai/chn/wjbxw/t1380841. htm,2016-07-13.
(4)孔令杰,王看,刘聪聪.国际主流媒体关于菲律宾南海仲裁案的报道情况调查研究[J].亚太安全与海洋研究,2016,(4).
(5)2014 Accomplishment Report-Advancing the Interests of the Philippines and the Filipino People[EB/OL]. https:∥www. dfa. gov. ph/images/2015/center/doc/report_2014. pdf,2015-01.
(6)菲律宾组织呼吁声援越南称菲越应团结对抗中国[EB/OL]. http:∥world. huanqiu. com/exclusive/2014-05/4996673. html,2014-05-16.
(7)越南外长访菲商建战略伙伴关系,欲在南海问题上联手应对中国[EB/OL]. http:∥bbs. tiexue. net/post2_8529639_1. html,2015-02-01.
(8)2015 Accomplishment Report[EB/OL]. https:∥www. dfa. gov. ph/images/2016/Trasnparency/2015%20Accomplishment%20Report. pdf,2016-01.
(9)2014 Accomplishment Report-Advancing the Interests of the Philippines and the Filipino People[EB/OL]. https:∥www.dfa. gov. ph/images/2015/center/doc/report_2014. pdf,2015-01.
(10)PH not giving up rights over South China Sea[EB/OL]. https:∥news. mb. com. ph/2018/07/12/ph-not-giving-uprights-over-south-china-sea/,2018-07-13; Our claims in the South China Sea[EB/OL]. https:∥news. mb. com. ph/2018/04/16/our-claims-in-the-south-china-sea/,2018-04-16.
(1)马博.杜特尔特“疏美亲中”政策评析:国家利益与个人偏好[J].国际论坛,2017,(7).
(2)李积浩.杜特尔特政府对中、美政策的调整及其影响[D].北京:国际关系学院硕士学位论文,2018.
(3)外交部发言人:不许菲以任何形式侵占仁爱礁[EB/OL]. http:∥news. sohu. com/20140331/n397462175. shtml,2014-03-31.
(4)Renato Cruz De Castro. Developing a Credible Defense Posture for the Philippines:From the Aquino to the Duterte Administrations[J]. Asian Politics&Policy,2017,(4).
(5)Renato Cruz De Castro. Developing a Credible Defense Posture for the Philippines:From the Aquino to the Duterte Administrations[J]. Asian Politics&Policy,2017,(4).
(6)Renato Cruz De Castro. Developing a Credible Defense Posture for the Philippines:From the Aquino to the Duterte Administrations[J]. Asian Politics&Policy,2017,(4).
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(8)PH cannot stop China’s plans in the South China Sea:Duterte[EB/OL]. https:∥news. mb. com. ph/2017/03/19/phcannot-stop-chinas-plans-in-the-south-china-sea-duterte/,2017-03-19; Duterte:Code of Conduct on South China Sea in ASEAN agenda,not arbitral ruling[EB/OL]. https:∥news. mb. com. ph/2017/04/27/duterte-code-of-conduct-on-south-china-sea-inasean-agenda-not-arbitral-ruling/,2017-04-17; ASEAN opts for a soft stand on South China Sea[EB/OL]. https:∥news. mb.com. ph/2017/05/03/asean-opts-for-a-soft-stand-on-south-china-sea/,2017-05-13.
(9)中华人民共和国外交部.中国—菲律宾南海问题双边磋商机制第一次会议联合新闻稿[EB/OL]. http:∥www. fmprc. gov. cn/nanhai/chn/wjbxw/t1463536. htm,2017-05-19.
(10)中华人民共和国外交部.中国—菲律宾南海问题双边磋商机制第二次会议[EB/OL]. http:∥www. fmprc. gov. cn/nanhai/chn/wjbxw/t1534825. htm,2018-02-13.
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(2)暨佩娟,丁刚.罔顾中方抗议菲律宾执意引外资在我海域勘探[EB/OL]. http:∥world. huanqiu. com/roll/2012-03/2486752. html,2012-03-02.
(3)中华人民共和国商务部.对外投资合作国别(地区)指南——菲律宾(2017年版)[EB/OL]. http:∥fec. mofcom.gov. cn/article/gbdqzn/upload/feilvbin. pdf,2017.
(4)菲律宾总统杜特尔特:菲在经济上唯一的希望是中国[EB/OL]. http:∥www. chinanews. com/gj/2016/10-19/8035873. shtml,2016-10-19.
(5)菲律宾总统杜特尔特谈南海问题:坚持与中国对话协商[EB/OL]. http:∥finance. chinanews. com/gn/2016/10-19/8036031. shtml,2016-10-19.
(6)Our claims in the South China Sea[EB/OL]. https:∥news. mb. com. ph/2018/04/16/our-claims-in-the-south-chinasea/,2018-04-16; Duterte offers 60-40 deal with China Joint South China Sea exploration planned[EB/OL]. https:∥news.mb. com. ph/2018/04/27/duterte-offers-60-40-deal-with-china-joint-south-china-sea-exploration-planned/,2018-04-28.
(7)Duterte declined U. S. offer to sell F-16 jets to the Philippines[EB/OL]. http:∥cnnphilippines. com/news/2018/08/23/duterte-united-states-f16-jets. html,2018-08-23.
(8)邵先成.阿基诺政府南海政策转变的国内推动与限制因素及未来趋势预判[J].太平洋学报,2016,(3).
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(2)鞠海龙.杜特尔特治下菲律宾民力党的崛起及愿景[J].当代世界,2018,(7).
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(4)Renato Cruz De Castro. Developing a Credible Defense Posture for the Philippines:From the Aquino to the Duterte Administrations[J]. Asian Politics&Policy,2017,(4).
(5)Duterte in Favor of Continuing EDCA[EB/OL]. https:∥www. philstar. com/headlines/2016/05/26/1587112/duterte-favor-continuing-edca,2015-05-26.
(6)Duterte softens tone on U. S. before South China Sea talks[EB/OL]. https:∥news. mb. com. ph/2017/04/10/dutertesoftens-tone-on-u-s-before-south-china-sea-talks/,2017-04-10.
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