基于库仑引力模型的中美日地缘经济关系测算
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摘要
冷战结束后,地缘经济成为影响国际关系的重要因素,国家间由于自然条件、资源禀赋、经济结构等不同形成了竞争型或合作型的地缘经济关系,在经济冲突加剧的地缘经济时代,如何平衡国家间的经济竞争与合作是当今国际关系的重要课题。本文以中美日三国2007-2016年为例,借鉴库仑引力的思想,引入地缘经济合作强度的概念和测度方法,探讨国家间地缘经济竞争与合作的规律,在考虑距离因素的基础上,分产品、进口和出口,准确地刻画了国家间经济合作或竞争的强弱程度。测算结果表明:(1)中美日三国的地缘经济合作强度多为负值,三国总体上竞争大于合作,且日本与其他两国的竞争相比于中美之间的竞争更加明显;(2)从贸易产品类型来看,三国间的矿物燃料、车辆、电机及设备零部件、机械设备等产品地缘经济合作强度的影响远大于其他产品类型,是决定三国间地缘经济关系的主要产品类型;(3)三国间石油类产品的地缘经济合作强度是所有产品中最小的,对海外石油资源的争夺是中美日三国地缘经济竞争关系中的决定性因素。
Geoeconomics has become one of the most important factors of international relationship since the end of the Cold War. Different nations have formed competitive or cooperative geoeconomic relationships because of their different natural conditions, resource endowments, and economic structures. Hence, it is important to balance the economic competition and cooperation between nations in the geoeconomic era of heightened economic conflict. This paper aims to explore the rule of competitive or cooperative geoeconomic relationships between nations by taking China, the USA and Japan as examples, and the recent10 years(2007-2016) as a study period. As the major powers of the Pacific region, the geoeconomic relationships between China, the USA, and Japan have a strong connection with the development of the Pacific region and even the global economy. This paper builds the concept and measurement of geoeconomic cooperative intensity, inspired by the thought of the Coulomb force of physics. Compared with the previous measure, the method of geoeconomic cooperative intensity exactly portrays the degree of competitive or cooperative geoeconomic relationships between nations owing to its consideration of distance factor, production type factor, as well as the import and export volume. The results show that:(1) The geoeconomic relationship as a whole is more competitive than cooperative between China, the USA and Japan, while almost all the separate results are negative between the three nations. And Japan is more competitive with the other two nations than the competition between China and the USA;(2) In terms of the detailed products types, mineral fuels, vehicles, motors and equipment parts,and mechanical equipment generally determine the characteristics of the geoeconomic relationship among three nations, since these products have far greater influence on the geoeconomic relations than other products;(3) The cooperative intensity of oil resource between China, the USA and Japan is the smallest among all the products. In other words, the oil resource is the most influential product. Therefore, the competition of the overseas oil resource will be a decisive factor in the economic competition among China, the USA and Japan.
Geoeconomics has become one of the most important factors of international relationship since the end of the Cold War. Different nations have formed competitive or cooperative geoeconomic relationships because of their different natural conditions, resource endowments, and economic structures. Hence, it is important to balance the economic competition and cooperation between nations in the geoeconomic era of heightened economic conflict. This paper aims to explore the rule of competitive or cooperative geoeconomic relationships between nations by taking China, the USA and Japan as examples, and the recent10 years(2007-2016) as a study period. As the major powers of the Pacific region, the geoeconomic relationships between China, the USA, and Japan have a strong connection with the development of the Pacific region and even the global economy. This paper builds the concept and measurement of geoeconomic cooperative intensity, inspired by the thought of the Coulomb force of physics. Compared with the previous measure, the method of geoeconomic cooperative intensity exactly portrays the degree of competitive or cooperative geoeconomic relationships between nations owing to its consideration of distance factor, production type factor, as well as the import and export volume. The results show that:(1) The geoeconomic relationship as a whole is more competitive than cooperative between China, the USA and Japan, while almost all the separate results are negative between the three nations. And Japan is more competitive with the other two nations than the competition between China and the USA;(2) In terms of the detailed products types, mineral fuels, vehicles, motors and equipment parts,and mechanical equipment generally determine the characteristics of the geoeconomic relationship among three nations, since these products have far greater influence on the geoeconomic relations than other products;(3) The cooperative intensity of oil resource between China, the USA and Japan is the smallest among all the products. In other words, the oil resource is the most influential product. Therefore, the competition of the overseas oil resource will be a decisive factor in the economic competition among China, the USA and Japan.
引文
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[8] Sparke M, Goldberg M, Levi M. Excavating the future in Cascadia:Geoeconomics and the imagined geographies of a cross-border region. Bc Studies:The British Columbian Quarterly, 2000(127):5-44.
[9] Ni Shixiong, Qian Xuming. New geopolitics and the harmonious world. Journal of Tsinghua University(Philosophy and Social Sciences), 2008, 23(5):123-130, 160.[倪世雄,潜旭明.新地缘政治与和谐世界.清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2008, 23(5):123-130, 160.]
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[13] Ni Shixiong. Contemporary Theories of Western International Relations. Shanghai:Fudan University Press, 2001.[倪世雄.当代西方国际关系理论.上海:复旦大学出版社, 2001.]
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[16] Sheth J N,Sisodia R. Tectonic Shift:The Geoeconomic Realignment of Globalizing Markets. New Delhi:SAGE Publications Pvt. Ltd., 2006.
[17] OLoughlin J, Anselin L. Geo-economic competition and trade bloc formation:United States, German, and Japanese exports, 1968-1992. Economic Geography, 1996, 72(2):131-160.
[18] Sparke M. Not a State, but more than a state of mind:Cascading Cascadias and the geoeconomics of cross-border regionalism. Globalization, Regionalization and Cross-Border Regions. London:Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2002.
[19] Sparke M. From geopolitics to geoeconomics:Transnational state effects in the borderlands. Geopolitics, 1998, 3(2):62-98.
[20] Smith A. Imagining geographies of the'new Europe':Geo-economic power and the new European architecture of integration. Political Geography, 2002, 21(5):647-670.
[21] Lee S. A geo-economic object or an object of geo-political absorption? Competing visions of North Korea in South Korean politics. Journal of Contemporary Asia, 2015, 45(4):693-714.
[22] O'Hara S, Heffernan M. From geo-strategy to geo-economics:The'Heartland'and British imperialism before and after Mackinder. Geopolitics, 2006, 11(1):54-73.
[23] Wong J. A China-centric economic order in East Asia. Asia Pacific Business Review, 2013, 19(2):286-296.
[24] Mercille J, Jones A. Practicing radical geopolitics:Logics of power and the Iranian nuclear"crisis". Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 2009, 99(5):856-862.
[25] Agnew J, Corbridge S. The new geopolitics:The dynamics of geopolitical disorder//Johnston R, Taylor P. The World in"Crisis":Geographical Perspectives. 2nd ed. Oxford, UK:Basil Blackwell, 1989:266-288.
[26] Zhang Xuebo, Wu Youde, Luo Huasong. Research on the theory and method for the measurement and analysis of interregional economic relationship:Take Yunnan Province as sample. Areal Research and Development, 2006, 25(4):34-39.[张学波,武友德,骆华松.地缘经济关系测度与分析的理论方法探讨:以云南省为例.地域研究与开发, 2006, 25(4):34-39.]
[27] Su Donghui, Luo Huasong, Cai Dingkun. Analysis of geo-economic relationships between the region of Southeast Asia and major outside countries. World Regional Studies, 2013, 22(1):1-11.[苏东辉,骆华松,蔡定昆.区外大国与东南亚地缘经济关系测度分析.世界地理研究, 2013, 22(1):1-11.]
[28] Xu Qian. Analysis of the match between the inter-provincial economic contact and geoeconomics relationship:Take Zhejiang for example. Economic Geography, 2010, 30(4):542-546.[徐茜.省际外联经济量与地缘经济关系的匹配分析:以浙江省为例.经济地理, 2010, 30(4):542-546.]
[29] Sun Haiyan, Liu Xianzhao, Yang Lingling. Analysis on the inter-regional economic relationship between Shandong and Tianjin Binhai new area. Economic Geography, 2009, 29(12):1972-1976.[孙海燕,刘贤赵,杨玲玲.山东省与天津滨海新区地缘经济关系分析.经济地理, 2009, 29(12):1972-1976.]
[30] Zhao Minghua, Li Jiaojiao, Han Rongqing, et al. The geo-economic relationship among the Bohai Rim in provincial scale. Economic Geography, 2015, 35(11):29-35.[赵明华,李娇娇,韩荣青,等.环渤海地区省际地缘经济关系研究.经济地理, 2015, 35(11):29-35.]
[31] Deng Chunyu. A matching analysis on the foreign economic contact and geo-economic relationship of the economic circle PRD. Progress in Geography, 2010, 29(2):208-216.[邓春玉.珠三角经济圈对外经济联系与地缘经济关系匹配分析.地理科学进展, 2010, 29(2):208-216.]
[32] Liu Shaopai, Tian Jipeng, Lu Lin. A case study of Shanghai Disneyland on spatial structure forecast for proposed scenic spot market:Modification and its application of gravity model. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(2):304-321.[刘少湃,田纪鹏,陆林.上海迪士尼在建景区客源市场空间结构预测:旅游引力模型的修正及应用.地理学报, 2016, 71(2):304-321.]
[33] Yang Wenlong, Du Debin, Liu Chengliang, et al. Study on the spatial-temporal evolution and internal mechanism of geoeconomic connections of China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(6):956-969.[杨文龙,杜德斌,刘承良,等.中国地缘经济联系的时空演化特征及其内部机制.地理学报, 2016, 71(6):956-969.]
[34] Deng Xinghua, Cui Fan, Lin Zhouyu. Evolution of global trade structure and trade growth:An empirical analysis based on gravity model. Journal of International Trade, 2015(7):25-34.[邓兴华,崔凡,林洲钰.全球贸易结构演化与贸易增长:基于引力模型的实证分析.国际贸易问题, 2015(7):25-34.]
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