水库实时防洪风险计算及库群防洪库容分配互用性分析
|
摘要
水库防洪调度风险分析是实时防洪决策的重要环节和依据。为评估水库实时防洪风险,本文提出一种基于长系列历史实测径流资料的防洪库容频率曲线推算方法,以此为基础建立了水库实时防洪调度风险分析模型。进一步,从三峡水库实际防洪调度需求出发,分析了三峡水库汛期不同时段实时防洪风险,研究了上游溪洛渡、向家坝水库配合三峡水库进行联合调度时防洪库容频率曲线的变化,以及上下游水库间防洪库容分配及其互用性问题。研究表明,推求的防洪库容频率曲线能帮助判断当前防洪情势,合理利用防洪库容互用性可有效降低三峡水库防洪风险。
The risk analysis of reservoir flood operation is an important link and basis for real-time flood control decision-making. In order to evaluate the real-time flood control risk of the reservoir,a method for calculating the frequency curve of reservoir capacity based on a long series of measured historical runoff data was presented in this paper. Based on this proposed method,the risk analysis model of real-time flood control operation was established. Furthermore, according to the actual flood control operation demand of the Three Gorges Reservoir,the flood control risk of reservoir in different periods of flood season was further analyzed. Meanwhile,the variation of the frequency curve of flood control capacity and the interoperability of storage capacity of multi-reservoirs were studied when the upstream cascade reservoirs cooperate with the Three Gorges Reservoir for joint operation. The study shows that the calculated frequency curve of reservoir flood control can be used to judge the current flood situation and effectively reduce the flood control risk of the Three Gorges Reservoir by using the interoperable performance of reservoir flood control reasonably.
The risk analysis of reservoir flood operation is an important link and basis for real-time flood control decision-making. In order to evaluate the real-time flood control risk of the reservoir,a method for calculating the frequency curve of reservoir capacity based on a long series of measured historical runoff data was presented in this paper. Based on this proposed method,the risk analysis model of real-time flood control operation was established. Furthermore, according to the actual flood control operation demand of the Three Gorges Reservoir,the flood control risk of reservoir in different periods of flood season was further analyzed. Meanwhile,the variation of the frequency curve of flood control capacity and the interoperability of storage capacity of multi-reservoirs were studied when the upstream cascade reservoirs cooperate with the Three Gorges Reservoir for joint operation. The study shows that the calculated frequency curve of reservoir flood control can be used to judge the current flood situation and effectively reduce the flood control risk of the Three Gorges Reservoir by using the interoperable performance of reservoir flood control reasonably.
引文
[1] ZHANG Y P,WANG G L,PENG Y,et al. Risk analysis of dynamic control of reservoir limited water level by considering flood forecast error[J]. Science China Technological Sciences,2011,54(7):1888-1893.
[2] WU S J,YANG J C,TUNG Y K. Risk analysis for flood-control structure under consideration of uncertainties in design flood[J]. Natural Hazards,2011,58(1):117-140.
[3]刘艳丽,周惠成,张建云.不确定性分析方法在水库防洪风险分析中的应用研究[J].水力发电学报,2010,29(6):47-53.
[4] DIAO Y F,WANG B D. Risk analysis of flood control operation mode with forecast information based on a combi?nation of risk sources[J]. Science China Technological Sciences,2010,53(7):1949-1956.
[5]邹强,胡向阳,周曼.三峡水库洪水资源利用Ⅱ:风险分析和对策措施[J].人民长江,2018,49(4):12-16.
[6]张太衡,武新宇,孙倩莹.基于径流模型参数不确定性的防洪风险分析[J].水力发电学报,2017,36(9):31-39.
[7]姜树海,范子武.水库防洪预报调度的风险分析[J].水利学报,2004(11):102-107.
[8]钟平安,曾京.水库实时防洪调度风险分析研究[J].水力发电,2008,34(2):8-10.
[9] CHEN L,SINGH V P,LU W,et al. Streamflow forecast uncertainty evolution and its effect on real-time reser?voir operation[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2016,540:712-726.
[10] YAN B,GUO S,CHEN L. Estimation of reservoir flood control operation risks with considering inflow forecasting errors[J]. Stochastic Environmental Research&Risk Assessment,2014,28(2):359-368.
[11]李英海,周建中,张勇传,等.水库防洪优化调度风险决策模型及应用[J].水力发电,2009,35(4):19-21.
[12]刘招,席秋义,贾志峰,等.水库防洪预报调度的实用风险分析方法研究[J].水力发电学报,2013,32(5):35-40.
[13]周如瑞,卢迪,王本德,等.基于贝叶斯定理与洪水预报误差抬高水库汛限水位的风险分析[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(3):135-141.
[14]时芳欣,郝振纯,杨传国,等.黄淮海地区降水概率分布类型分析[J].水电能源科学,2014,32(9):1-5.
[15]肖可以.最大熵原理在水文频率分布模型中的应用研究[D].杨凌:西北农林科技大学,2010.
[16]水文分析计算文集编辑委员会.刘光文水文分析计算文集[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2003.
[17]周新春,许银山,冯宝飞.长江上游干流梯级水库群防洪库容互用性初探[J].水科学进展,2017,28(3):421-428.
[2] WU S J,YANG J C,TUNG Y K. Risk analysis for flood-control structure under consideration of uncertainties in design flood[J]. Natural Hazards,2011,58(1):117-140.
[3]刘艳丽,周惠成,张建云.不确定性分析方法在水库防洪风险分析中的应用研究[J].水力发电学报,2010,29(6):47-53.
[4] DIAO Y F,WANG B D. Risk analysis of flood control operation mode with forecast information based on a combi?nation of risk sources[J]. Science China Technological Sciences,2010,53(7):1949-1956.
[5]邹强,胡向阳,周曼.三峡水库洪水资源利用Ⅱ:风险分析和对策措施[J].人民长江,2018,49(4):12-16.
[6]张太衡,武新宇,孙倩莹.基于径流模型参数不确定性的防洪风险分析[J].水力发电学报,2017,36(9):31-39.
[7]姜树海,范子武.水库防洪预报调度的风险分析[J].水利学报,2004(11):102-107.
[8]钟平安,曾京.水库实时防洪调度风险分析研究[J].水力发电,2008,34(2):8-10.
[9] CHEN L,SINGH V P,LU W,et al. Streamflow forecast uncertainty evolution and its effect on real-time reser?voir operation[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2016,540:712-726.
[10] YAN B,GUO S,CHEN L. Estimation of reservoir flood control operation risks with considering inflow forecasting errors[J]. Stochastic Environmental Research&Risk Assessment,2014,28(2):359-368.
[11]李英海,周建中,张勇传,等.水库防洪优化调度风险决策模型及应用[J].水力发电,2009,35(4):19-21.
[12]刘招,席秋义,贾志峰,等.水库防洪预报调度的实用风险分析方法研究[J].水力发电学报,2013,32(5):35-40.
[13]周如瑞,卢迪,王本德,等.基于贝叶斯定理与洪水预报误差抬高水库汛限水位的风险分析[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(3):135-141.
[14]时芳欣,郝振纯,杨传国,等.黄淮海地区降水概率分布类型分析[J].水电能源科学,2014,32(9):1-5.
[15]肖可以.最大熵原理在水文频率分布模型中的应用研究[D].杨凌:西北农林科技大学,2010.
[16]水文分析计算文集编辑委员会.刘光文水文分析计算文集[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2003.
[17]周新春,许银山,冯宝飞.长江上游干流梯级水库群防洪库容互用性初探[J].水科学进展,2017,28(3):421-428.