1960～2012年中国地区总云量时空变化及其与气温和水汽的关系
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摘要
基于我国地区543个地面气象台站观测的总云量、平均气温和相对湿度日均值资料,采用正交经验函数(EOF)、气候倾向率和线性趋势分析等方法,研究了1960～2012年总云量的时空变化特征及其与气温和水汽的关系。结果表明:(1)我国地区总云量呈南多北少的带状分布特征,最大值在四川盆地(82%)。近53年来总云量气候倾向率为-0.8%(10a)-1,趋势系数为-0.68,通过了99.9%的信度检验。(2)总云量季节变化特点明显,夏季最多,春秋季次之,冬季最少,其中春季、夏季和秋季有显著的下降趋势。(3)EOF分解的前两个模态表明总云量不仅具有一致减少的变化特征,还具有明显的区域差异。以此同时,平均气温和相对湿度不论在总体变化趋势、地区差异、还是时间演变上,均与总云量保持较高的一致性,进一步证明总云量的变化与气温和水汽有密切关系。
This study investigates temporal and spatial variations of total cloud cover(TCC) in China during 1960 to 2012 and further analyzes their relationships with temperature and relative humidity based on the dataset of observations from 543 surface meteorological stations in China. Basic statistical methods, including the empirical orthogonal function(EOF) and climate tendency and linear trend analysis, are used here. It is found that TCC is higher in South China than inNorth China with the maximum value occurring in Sichuan Basin(82%). The climate tendency of TCC in China is-0.8%(10 a)-1 in the recent 53 years and the trend coefficient is-0.68. The variation of the TCC in China demonstrates remarkable seasonal change, which is the largest in the summer and smallest in the winter. It exhibits a clear declining trend in all seasons except the winter. In addition, the first two dominant EOF modes of TCC display a uniform declining variation and apparent regional differences. Meanwhile, variations of temperature and relative humidity are consistent with the variations of TCC with respect to the trend, regional differences and temporal evolution, implying a close relationship between the variations of TCC and these two variables.
This study investigates temporal and spatial variations of total cloud cover(TCC) in China during 1960 to 2012 and further analyzes their relationships with temperature and relative humidity based on the dataset of observations from 543 surface meteorological stations in China. Basic statistical methods, including the empirical orthogonal function(EOF) and climate tendency and linear trend analysis, are used here. It is found that TCC is higher in South China than inNorth China with the maximum value occurring in Sichuan Basin(82%). The climate tendency of TCC in China is-0.8%(10 a)-1 in the recent 53 years and the trend coefficient is-0.68. The variation of the TCC in China demonstrates remarkable seasonal change, which is the largest in the summer and smallest in the winter. It exhibits a clear declining trend in all seasons except the winter. In addition, the first two dominant EOF modes of TCC display a uniform declining variation and apparent regional differences. Meanwhile, variations of temperature and relative humidity are consistent with the variations of TCC with respect to the trend, regional differences and temporal evolution, implying a close relationship between the variations of TCC and these two variables.
引文
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段皎,刘煜.2011.近20年中国地区云量变化趋势[J].气象科技,39(3):280-288.Duan Jiao,Liu Yu.2011.Variation and trends of cloud amount in China over past 20 years[J].Meteorological Science and Technology(in Chinese),39(3):280-288,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1671-6345.2011.03.004.
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Forster P,Ramaswamy V,Artaxo P,et al.2007.Observations:Surface and atmospheric climate change[M]//Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis.Contribution of Working Group I to the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Solomon S,Qin D,Manning M,et al,Eds.Cambridge,UK and New York,NY,USA:Cambridge University Press,275-277.
郭玲,何金海,祝从文.2011.中国夏季降水影响因子的研究回顾[J].气象与减灾研究,34(2):1-7.Guo Ling,He Jinhai,Zhu Congwen.2011.Review of study on the factors impacting summer rainfall in China[J].Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research(in Chinese),34(2):1-7,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1007-9033.2011.02.001.
Hong G,Yang P,Gao B C,et al.2007.High cloud properties from three years of MODIS Terra and Aqua collection-4 data over the tropics[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology,46(11):1840-1856,doi:10.1175/2007JAMC1583.1.
Li Z Q,Niu F,Fan J W,et al.2011.Long-term impacts of aerosols on the vertical development of clouds and precipitation[J].Nature Geoscience,4(12):888-894,doi:10.1038/ngeo1313.
刘瑞霞,刘玉洁,杜秉玉.2004.中国云气候特征的分析[J].应用气象学报,15(4):468-476.Liu Ruixia,Liu Yujie,Du Bingyu.2004.Cloud climatology characteristics of China from ISCCP data[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology(in Chinese),15(4):468-476,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2004.04.009.
刘引鸽,王宁练.2014.我国总云量时空特征及其影响因素分析[J].宝鸡文理学院学报(自然科学版),34(1):45-50,58.Liu Yin’ge,Wang Ninglian.2014.Variation and influential factors of total cloud amount all over China[J].Journal of Baoji University of Arts and Sciences(Natural Science Edition)(in Chinese),34(1):45-50,58,doi:10.13467/j.cnki.jbuns.2014.01.019.
Maugeri M,Bagnati Z,Brunetti M,et al.2001.Trends in Italian total cloud amount,1951-1996[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,28(24):4551-4554,doi:10.1029/2001GL013754.
牛晓瑞,王淑瑜,李杉.2012.1961~2005年新疆夏季低云量长期变化特征及影响因素分析[J].气候与环境研究,17(1):59-67.Niu Xiaorui,Wang Shuyu,Li Shan.2012.Analysis of long-term variation characteristics and influence factors of summer low cloud amount in Xinjiang during 1961-2005[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),17(1):59-67,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2011.10047.
Norrh G R,Bell T L,Cahalan R F,et al.1982.Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,110(7):699-706.
彭杰,张华,沈新勇.2013.东亚地区云垂直结构的Cloud Sat卫星观测研究[J].大气科学,37(1):91-100.Peng Jie,Zhang Hua,Shen Xinyong.2013.Analysis of vertical structure of clouds in East Asia with CloudSat data[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),37(1):91-100,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2012.11188.
钱永甫,黄媛媛.1994.臭氧、云和气溶胶对纬带平均气候的影响[J].地理学报,49(3):266-274.Qian Yongfu,Huang Yuanyuan.1994.The effects of ozone,clouds and aerosols on the zonally averaged climate[J].Acta Geographica Sinica(in Chinese),49(3):266-274,doi:10.11821/xb199403008.
施能,陈家其,屠其璞.1995.中国近100年来4个年代际的气候变化特征[J].气象学报,53(4):431-439.Shi Neng,Chen Jiaqi,Tu Qipu.1995.4-phase climate change features in the last 100 years over China[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),53(4):431-439,doi:10.11676/qxxb1995.049.
施能,黄先香,杨扬.2003.1948~2000年全球陆地年降水量场趋势变化的时、空特征[J].大气科学,27(6):971-982.Shi Neng,Huang Xianxiang,Yang Yang.2003.Spatiotemporal features of the trend variation of global land annual rainfall fields from 1948-2000[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),27(6):971-982,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2003.06.02.
石睿,王体健,李树,等.2015.东亚夏季气溶胶-云-降水分布特征及其相互影响的资料分析[J].大气科学,39(1):12-22.Shi Rui,Wang Tijian,Li Shu,et al.2015.The spatial and temporal characteristics of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions during summer in East Asia[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),39(1):12-22,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1404.13276.
Sun B,Groisman P Y.2004.Variations in low cloud cover over the United States during the second half of the twentieth century[J].J.Climate,17(9):1883-1888,doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<1883:VILCCO>2.0.CO;2.
魏凤英.2007.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(第二版)[M].北京:气象出版社.Wei Fengying.2007.Climate Statistical Diagnosing and Prediction(in Chinese)[M].2nd ed.Beijing:China Meteorological Press.
Wild M,Folini D,Hakuba M Z,et al.2014.The energy balance over land and oceans:An assessment based on direct observations and CMIP5climate models[J].Climate Dyn.,44(11-12):3393-3429,doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2430-z.
吴涧,刘佳.2011.近二十年全球变暖背景下东亚地区云量变化特征分析[J].热带气象学报,27(4):551-559.Wu Jian,Liu Jia.2011.Trend of cloud amount in East Asia under the backdrop of global warming in the past 20 years[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology(in Chinese),27(4):551-559,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2011.04.012.
徐兴奎.2012.中国区域总云量和低云量分布变化[J].气象,38(1):90-95.Xu Xingkui.2012.Spatiotemporal variation of total cloud and low cloud over China[J].Meteorological Monthly(in Chinese),38(1):90-95.
杨冰韵.2013.基于CloudSat卫星资料分析云的微物理和光学特性的分布特征[D].中国气象科学研究院硕士学位论文.Yang Bingyun.2013.Analysis on distribution characteristics of cloud microphysical and optical properties based on the CloudSat data[D].M.S.thesis(in Chinese),China Academy of Meteorological Sciences.
张雪芹,彭莉莉,郑度,等.2007.1971~2004年青藏高原总云量时空变化及其影响因子[J].地理学报,62(9):959-969.Zhang Xueqin,Peng Lili,Zheng Du,et al.2007.Variation of total cloud amount and its possible causes over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau during 1971-2004[J].Acta Geographica Sinica(in Chinese),62(9):959-969,doi:10.11821/xb200709007.
周国华,罗小莉,王盘兴,等.2012.中国冬季气温异常EOF分析的改进[J].大气科学学报,35(3):295-303.Zhou Guohua,Luo Xiaoli,Wang Panxing,et al.2012.Improvements of empirical orthogonal function analysis for winter temperature anomaly over China[J].Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),35(3):295-303,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-7097.2012.03.004.
Dai A G,Karl T R,Sun B M,et al.2006.Recent trends in cloudiness over the United States:A tale of monitoring inadequacies[J].Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,87(5):597-606,doi:10.1175/BAMS-87-5-597.
戴进,余兴,刘贵华,等.2011.青藏高原雷暴弱降水云微物理特征的卫星反演分析[J].高原气象,30(2):288-298.Dai Jin,Yu Xing,Liu Guihua,et al.2011.Satellite retrieval analysis on microphysical property of thunderstorm with light precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau[J].Plateau Meteorology(in Chinese),30(2):288-298.
段皎,刘煜.2011.近20年中国地区云量变化趋势[J].气象科技,39(3):280-288.Duan Jiao,Liu Yu.2011.Variation and trends of cloud amount in China over past 20 years[J].Meteorological Science and Technology(in Chinese),39(3):280-288,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1671-6345.2011.03.004.
Evan A T,Heidinger A K,Vimont D J.2007.Arguments against a physical long-term trend in global ISCCP cloud amounts[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,34(4):L04701,doi:10.1029/2006GL028083.
Forster P,Ramaswamy V,Artaxo P,et al.2007.Observations:Surface and atmospheric climate change[M]//Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis.Contribution of Working Group I to the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Solomon S,Qin D,Manning M,et al,Eds.Cambridge,UK and New York,NY,USA:Cambridge University Press,275-277.
郭玲,何金海,祝从文.2011.中国夏季降水影响因子的研究回顾[J].气象与减灾研究,34(2):1-7.Guo Ling,He Jinhai,Zhu Congwen.2011.Review of study on the factors impacting summer rainfall in China[J].Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research(in Chinese),34(2):1-7,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1007-9033.2011.02.001.
Hong G,Yang P,Gao B C,et al.2007.High cloud properties from three years of MODIS Terra and Aqua collection-4 data over the tropics[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology,46(11):1840-1856,doi:10.1175/2007JAMC1583.1.
Li Z Q,Niu F,Fan J W,et al.2011.Long-term impacts of aerosols on the vertical development of clouds and precipitation[J].Nature Geoscience,4(12):888-894,doi:10.1038/ngeo1313.
刘瑞霞,刘玉洁,杜秉玉.2004.中国云气候特征的分析[J].应用气象学报,15(4):468-476.Liu Ruixia,Liu Yujie,Du Bingyu.2004.Cloud climatology characteristics of China from ISCCP data[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology(in Chinese),15(4):468-476,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2004.04.009.
刘引鸽,王宁练.2014.我国总云量时空特征及其影响因素分析[J].宝鸡文理学院学报(自然科学版),34(1):45-50,58.Liu Yin’ge,Wang Ninglian.2014.Variation and influential factors of total cloud amount all over China[J].Journal of Baoji University of Arts and Sciences(Natural Science Edition)(in Chinese),34(1):45-50,58,doi:10.13467/j.cnki.jbuns.2014.01.019.
Maugeri M,Bagnati Z,Brunetti M,et al.2001.Trends in Italian total cloud amount,1951-1996[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,28(24):4551-4554,doi:10.1029/2001GL013754.
牛晓瑞,王淑瑜,李杉.2012.1961~2005年新疆夏季低云量长期变化特征及影响因素分析[J].气候与环境研究,17(1):59-67.Niu Xiaorui,Wang Shuyu,Li Shan.2012.Analysis of long-term variation characteristics and influence factors of summer low cloud amount in Xinjiang during 1961-2005[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),17(1):59-67,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2011.10047.
Norrh G R,Bell T L,Cahalan R F,et al.1982.Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,110(7):699-706.
彭杰,张华,沈新勇.2013.东亚地区云垂直结构的Cloud Sat卫星观测研究[J].大气科学,37(1):91-100.Peng Jie,Zhang Hua,Shen Xinyong.2013.Analysis of vertical structure of clouds in East Asia with CloudSat data[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),37(1):91-100,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2012.11188.
钱永甫,黄媛媛.1994.臭氧、云和气溶胶对纬带平均气候的影响[J].地理学报,49(3):266-274.Qian Yongfu,Huang Yuanyuan.1994.The effects of ozone,clouds and aerosols on the zonally averaged climate[J].Acta Geographica Sinica(in Chinese),49(3):266-274,doi:10.11821/xb199403008.
施能,陈家其,屠其璞.1995.中国近100年来4个年代际的气候变化特征[J].气象学报,53(4):431-439.Shi Neng,Chen Jiaqi,Tu Qipu.1995.4-phase climate change features in the last 100 years over China[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),53(4):431-439,doi:10.11676/qxxb1995.049.
施能,黄先香,杨扬.2003.1948~2000年全球陆地年降水量场趋势变化的时、空特征[J].大气科学,27(6):971-982.Shi Neng,Huang Xianxiang,Yang Yang.2003.Spatiotemporal features of the trend variation of global land annual rainfall fields from 1948-2000[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),27(6):971-982,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2003.06.02.
石睿,王体健,李树,等.2015.东亚夏季气溶胶-云-降水分布特征及其相互影响的资料分析[J].大气科学,39(1):12-22.Shi Rui,Wang Tijian,Li Shu,et al.2015.The spatial and temporal characteristics of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions during summer in East Asia[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),39(1):12-22,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1404.13276.
Sun B,Groisman P Y.2004.Variations in low cloud cover over the United States during the second half of the twentieth century[J].J.Climate,17(9):1883-1888,doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<1883:VILCCO>2.0.CO;2.
魏凤英.2007.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(第二版)[M].北京:气象出版社.Wei Fengying.2007.Climate Statistical Diagnosing and Prediction(in Chinese)[M].2nd ed.Beijing:China Meteorological Press.
Wild M,Folini D,Hakuba M Z,et al.2014.The energy balance over land and oceans:An assessment based on direct observations and CMIP5climate models[J].Climate Dyn.,44(11-12):3393-3429,doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2430-z.
吴涧,刘佳.2011.近二十年全球变暖背景下东亚地区云量变化特征分析[J].热带气象学报,27(4):551-559.Wu Jian,Liu Jia.2011.Trend of cloud amount in East Asia under the backdrop of global warming in the past 20 years[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology(in Chinese),27(4):551-559,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2011.04.012.
徐兴奎.2012.中国区域总云量和低云量分布变化[J].气象,38(1):90-95.Xu Xingkui.2012.Spatiotemporal variation of total cloud and low cloud over China[J].Meteorological Monthly(in Chinese),38(1):90-95.
杨冰韵.2013.基于CloudSat卫星资料分析云的微物理和光学特性的分布特征[D].中国气象科学研究院硕士学位论文.Yang Bingyun.2013.Analysis on distribution characteristics of cloud microphysical and optical properties based on the CloudSat data[D].M.S.thesis(in Chinese),China Academy of Meteorological Sciences.
张雪芹,彭莉莉,郑度,等.2007.1971~2004年青藏高原总云量时空变化及其影响因子[J].地理学报,62(9):959-969.Zhang Xueqin,Peng Lili,Zheng Du,et al.2007.Variation of total cloud amount and its possible causes over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau during 1971-2004[J].Acta Geographica Sinica(in Chinese),62(9):959-969,doi:10.11821/xb200709007.
周国华,罗小莉,王盘兴,等.2012.中国冬季气温异常EOF分析的改进[J].大气科学学报,35(3):295-303.Zhou Guohua,Luo Xiaoli,Wang Panxing,et al.2012.Improvements of empirical orthogonal function analysis for winter temperature anomaly over China[J].Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),35(3):295-303,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-7097.2012.03.004.
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