青藏高原东北部冷空气次数和强度变化的特征研究
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摘要
利用青藏高原东北部68个国家气象站的气象资料,统计了1961—2015年的全区月、季、年冷空气次数、强度和强降温综合强度资料,应用气候诊断方法分析了冷空气次数、强度和强降温综合强度的变化特征及其成因。结果表明:在年尺度上,1961—2015年青藏高原东北部全区冷空气年平均出现次数为49.6次,冷空气次数气候变化倾向率每10 a减少0.600次,减少趋势不显著;全区冷空气年平均强度为0.39,气候变化倾向率每10 a降低0.022,减弱趋势显著;全区冷空气年强降温综合平均强度为0.67,气候变化倾向率每10 a降低0.005,减弱趋势不显著。在季节尺度上,冷空气次数夏季减少的趋势显著,而春季减少的趋势和秋季、冬季增加的趋势不显著;冷空气强度冬季减弱的趋势显著,而其他季节减弱的趋势不明显;强降温综合强度春季增强趋势和其他季节减弱的趋势不显著。1961—2015年大西洋欧洲区极涡面积指数等因子减小以及热带北大西洋海温指数等因子增大是导致全区年冷空气次数减少的主要成因之一,而西藏高原指数等因子增强和热带印度洋海温偶极子指数等因子减弱是导致年冷空气强度减弱的主要原因之一。
Based on the meteorological data from 68 national meteorological stations in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau,China,the monthly,seasonal and annual data about the frequency and intensity of cold air and strong cooling during the time period from 1961 to 2015 are summarized and the corresponding change characteristics and causes are analyzed with climatic diagnostic method.The results indicate that,on a yearly scale,the average frequency of cold air in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau in the time period was 49.6 times,and the climate change trend rate of cold air was decreased by 0.600 times per 10 years,while the decreasing tendency was not significant.Besides,annual mean strength of cold air in the whole region was 0.39,the climate change trend rate was decreased by 0.022 per 10 years,which had significant decrease tendency,the comprehensive average strength of the cold air in the whole region was 0.67,and climate change trend rate was decreased by 0.005 per 10 years,which did not show a significant reducing tendency.On a seasonal scale,the cold air frequency had significant reducing tendency in summer,while it had a non-significant reducing tendency in spring,a non-significant increase tendency autumn and winter.In addition,cold air strength had a significant weakening tendency in winter while the tendency was not obvious in other seasons.The comprehensive intensity of the strong cooling displayed a strengthening trend in spring and weakening trend in other seasons but none of them was significant.The decrease of the polar vortex area index and other factors in Europe region of Atlantic Ocean and the increase of the sea temperature index and other factors in tropical northern Atlantic Ocean increased mainly resulted in the declining of annual frequency of cold air.However,the enhancing of B index and other factors in Tibetan Plateau and the weakening of the SST dipole index and other factors of the tropical Indian Ocean were the main causes for the weakening of cold air strength.
Based on the meteorological data from 68 national meteorological stations in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau,China,the monthly,seasonal and annual data about the frequency and intensity of cold air and strong cooling during the time period from 1961 to 2015 are summarized and the corresponding change characteristics and causes are analyzed with climatic diagnostic method.The results indicate that,on a yearly scale,the average frequency of cold air in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau in the time period was 49.6 times,and the climate change trend rate of cold air was decreased by 0.600 times per 10 years,while the decreasing tendency was not significant.Besides,annual mean strength of cold air in the whole region was 0.39,the climate change trend rate was decreased by 0.022 per 10 years,which had significant decrease tendency,the comprehensive average strength of the cold air in the whole region was 0.67,and climate change trend rate was decreased by 0.005 per 10 years,which did not show a significant reducing tendency.On a seasonal scale,the cold air frequency had significant reducing tendency in summer,while it had a non-significant reducing tendency in spring,a non-significant increase tendency autumn and winter.In addition,cold air strength had a significant weakening tendency in winter while the tendency was not obvious in other seasons.The comprehensive intensity of the strong cooling displayed a strengthening trend in spring and weakening trend in other seasons but none of them was significant.The decrease of the polar vortex area index and other factors in Europe region of Atlantic Ocean and the increase of the sea temperature index and other factors in tropical northern Atlantic Ocean increased mainly resulted in the declining of annual frequency of cold air.However,the enhancing of B index and other factors in Tibetan Plateau and the weakening of the SST dipole index and other factors of the tropical Indian Ocean were the main causes for the weakening of cold air strength.
引文
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[6] 王继志,季良达.北半球超长波的振动与冷空气活动[J].大气科学,1981,5(4):424-433.[WANG Jizhi,JI Liangda.The relationship between the oscillation of ultra-long waves of the northern hemisphere and the outbreak of cold air[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,1981,5(4):48-51.]
[7] 叶丹,张耀存.冬季东亚副热带急流和温带急流协同变化与我国冷空气活动的关系[J].大气科学,2014,38(1):146-158.[YE Dan,ZHANG Yaocun.Association of concurrent variation between the East Asian polar front and subtropical jets with winter cold air activity in China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2014,38(1):146-158.]
[8] 陆春晖,丁一汇.平流层异常和我国冬季降温过程的等熵位涡分析[J].科学通报,2015,60(7):726-738. [LU Chunhui,DING Yihui.Analysis of isentropic potential vorticities for the relationship between stratospheric anomalies and the cooling process in China[J].Science Bulletin,2015,60(7):726-738.]
[9] 施宁,布和朝鲁.中国大范围持续性极端低温事件的一类平流层前兆信号[J].大气科学,2015,39(1):210-220.[SHI Ning,BUHE Cholaw.A specific stratospheric precursory signal for the extensive and persistent extreme cold events in China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2015,39(1):210-220.]
[10] 赵强,丁一汇.东亚冷空气爆发后陆地变性的物理过程研究[J].气象学报,1992,94(2):170-180.[ZHAO Qiang,DING Yihui.A study of physical processes affecting the transformation of cold air over land after outbreak of cold waves in East Asia[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1992,94(2):170-180.]
[11] 赵其庚.侵入青藏高原冷空气过程的等墒位涡分析[J].气象,1990,16(6):8-14.[ZHAO Qigeng.An analysis with isentropic potential vorticity on a cold wave entering the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau[J].Meteorological Monthly,1990,16(6):8-14.]
[12] 李峰,矫梅燕,丁一汇,等.北极区近 30 年环流的变化及对中国强冷事件的影响[J].高原气象,2006,25(2):209-218.[LI Feng,JIAO Meiyan,DING Yihui,et al.Climate change of Arctic atmospheric circulation in last 30 years and its effect on strong cold events in China[J].Plateau Meteorology,2006,25(2):209-218.]
[13] 彭京备,孙淑清.我国南方持续性低温与东亚冬季风“北弱南强”模态的关系[J].大气科学,2017,41(4):691-701.[PENG Jingbei,SUN Shuqing.The relationship between persistent cold spell in southern China and the variation mode of East Asian winter monsoon with opposite signs in the north and south[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2017,41(4):691-701.]
[14] 仇永康,李晓东,仇永炎.我国冷空气活动的特征及其与欧亚大陆积雪的关系[J].应用气象学报,1992,3(2):235-241.[QIU Yongkang,LI Xiaodong,QIU Yongyan.Statistical features of the cold waves invaded China and their relation to the snow cover area over the Eurasian continent[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,1992,3(2):235-241.]
[15] 毛炜峄,白素琴,陈鹏翔.1951—2015年乌鲁木齐市降温过程频数及强度气候特征[J].气象,2016,42(11):1351-1363.[MAO Weiyi,BAI Suqin,CHEN Pengxiang.Climate characteristics of frequency and intensity of cooling process in Urumqi during 1951—2015[J].Meteorological Monthly,2016,42(11):1351-1363.]
[16] 兰国栋,胡晏玲.乌鲁木齐市一次冷空气过境天气对空气污染的影响分析[J].干旱环境监测,2007,21(4):205-209.[LAN Guodong,HU Yanling. Influencing analysis of passing cold air on air pollution in Urumqi[J].Arid Environmental Monitoring,2007,21(4):205-209.]
[17] 杨晓玲,丁文魁,马中华,等.河西走廊东部强降温变化特征和典型环流型[J].气象,2016,42(6):756-763.[YANG Xiaoling,DING Wenkui,MA Zhonghua,et al.Change characteristic and typical circulation type of strong cooling in eastern Hexi Corridor[J].Meteorological Monthly,2016,42(6):756-763.]
[18] 徐亮,杨昭明.2013年初夏青海北部地区一次罕见低温冻害天气个例分析[J].青海农林科技,2014,(4):48-51.[ XU Liang,YANG Zhaoming.Analysis on a rare low-temperature and freeze-injury weather process in early summer 2013 in the northern Qinghai[J].Science Technology of Qinghai Farming and Forestry,2014,(4):48-51.]
[19] 王晓明,徐春,韵芸,等.2010年青海省海南地区一次大风强降温天气分析[J].青海科技,2011,11(1):26-28. [WANG Xiaomin,XU Chun,YUN Yun,et al.Analysis a gale weather of cooling process 2010 in the sorthern Qinghai[J].Science Technology of Qinghai,2011,11(1):26-28.]
[20] 邓爱娟,刘志雄,刘可群,等.春秋季冷空气过程对不同养殖水体水温的影响[J].中国农学通报,2016,32(19):120-129. [DENG Aijuan,LIU Zhixiong,LIU Kequn,et al.Cold air in spring and autumn-effect on temperature of different aquatic water[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2016,32(19):120-129.]
[21] 阮烨,牛静萍,张莉,等.冷空气活动对心脑血管疾病发生相关敏感指标影响的研究[J].环境与健康杂志,2012,29(6):496-498.[RUAN Ye,NIU Jingping,ZHANG Li,et al.Impact of cold air activities on sensitive indexes for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases[J].Journal of Environment and Health,2012,29(6):496-498.]
[22] 丁一汇,王遵娅,何金海,等.近50 a来中国气候变化特征的再分析[J].气象学报,2004,62(2):228-236.[DING Yihui,WANG Zunya,HE Jinhai,et al.An updating analysis of the climate change in China in recent 50 years[J].Acta Meterologica Sinica,2004,62(2):228-236.]
[23] 吕少宁,李栋梁,文军,等.全球变暖背景下青藏高原气温周期变化与突变分析[J].高原气象,2010,29(6):1378-1385.[LYU Shaoning,LI Dongliang,WEN Jun,et al.Analysis on periodic variations and abrupt change of air temperature over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau under global warming[J].Plateau Meteo,2010,29(6):1378-1385.]
[2] 王宗明,孙照渤,李忠贤,等.1949—2009 年欧亚大陆强冷空气活动频次的变化特征[J].气象与减灾研究,2011,34(1):16-23.[WANG Zongming,SUN Zhaobo,LI Zhongxian,et al.Variation characteristics of strong cold air activity frequencyin Eurasia,from 1949 to 2009[J].Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research,2011,34(1):16-23.]
[3] 叶笃正,高由禧.青藏高原气象学[M].北京:科学出版社,1979:122-140.[YE Duzheng,GAO Youxi. Meteorology of the Tibetan Plateau[M].Beijing: Science Press,1979:122-140.]
[4] 龚道溢,王绍武.近百年北极涛动对我国冬季气候的影响[J].地理学报, 2003,58(4):559-568.[GONG Daoyi,WANG Shaowu.Influence of Arctic oscillation on climate over China[J].Actc Geographica Sinica,2003,58(4):559-568.]
[5] 罗四维,陈玉春,于学泉.青藏高原对冷空气爆发影响的个例分析(一)[J].高原气象,1988,7(3):234-245.[LUO Siwei,CHEN Yuchun,YU Xuequan.A case study of the effect of Tibetan Plateau on the outbreak of cold air(I)[ J].Plateau Meteor,1988,7(3):234-245.]
[6] 王继志,季良达.北半球超长波的振动与冷空气活动[J].大气科学,1981,5(4):424-433.[WANG Jizhi,JI Liangda.The relationship between the oscillation of ultra-long waves of the northern hemisphere and the outbreak of cold air[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,1981,5(4):48-51.]
[7] 叶丹,张耀存.冬季东亚副热带急流和温带急流协同变化与我国冷空气活动的关系[J].大气科学,2014,38(1):146-158.[YE Dan,ZHANG Yaocun.Association of concurrent variation between the East Asian polar front and subtropical jets with winter cold air activity in China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2014,38(1):146-158.]
[8] 陆春晖,丁一汇.平流层异常和我国冬季降温过程的等熵位涡分析[J].科学通报,2015,60(7):726-738. [LU Chunhui,DING Yihui.Analysis of isentropic potential vorticities for the relationship between stratospheric anomalies and the cooling process in China[J].Science Bulletin,2015,60(7):726-738.]
[9] 施宁,布和朝鲁.中国大范围持续性极端低温事件的一类平流层前兆信号[J].大气科学,2015,39(1):210-220.[SHI Ning,BUHE Cholaw.A specific stratospheric precursory signal for the extensive and persistent extreme cold events in China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2015,39(1):210-220.]
[10] 赵强,丁一汇.东亚冷空气爆发后陆地变性的物理过程研究[J].气象学报,1992,94(2):170-180.[ZHAO Qiang,DING Yihui.A study of physical processes affecting the transformation of cold air over land after outbreak of cold waves in East Asia[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1992,94(2):170-180.]
[11] 赵其庚.侵入青藏高原冷空气过程的等墒位涡分析[J].气象,1990,16(6):8-14.[ZHAO Qigeng.An analysis with isentropic potential vorticity on a cold wave entering the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau[J].Meteorological Monthly,1990,16(6):8-14.]
[12] 李峰,矫梅燕,丁一汇,等.北极区近 30 年环流的变化及对中国强冷事件的影响[J].高原气象,2006,25(2):209-218.[LI Feng,JIAO Meiyan,DING Yihui,et al.Climate change of Arctic atmospheric circulation in last 30 years and its effect on strong cold events in China[J].Plateau Meteorology,2006,25(2):209-218.]
[13] 彭京备,孙淑清.我国南方持续性低温与东亚冬季风“北弱南强”模态的关系[J].大气科学,2017,41(4):691-701.[PENG Jingbei,SUN Shuqing.The relationship between persistent cold spell in southern China and the variation mode of East Asian winter monsoon with opposite signs in the north and south[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2017,41(4):691-701.]
[14] 仇永康,李晓东,仇永炎.我国冷空气活动的特征及其与欧亚大陆积雪的关系[J].应用气象学报,1992,3(2):235-241.[QIU Yongkang,LI Xiaodong,QIU Yongyan.Statistical features of the cold waves invaded China and their relation to the snow cover area over the Eurasian continent[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,1992,3(2):235-241.]
[15] 毛炜峄,白素琴,陈鹏翔.1951—2015年乌鲁木齐市降温过程频数及强度气候特征[J].气象,2016,42(11):1351-1363.[MAO Weiyi,BAI Suqin,CHEN Pengxiang.Climate characteristics of frequency and intensity of cooling process in Urumqi during 1951—2015[J].Meteorological Monthly,2016,42(11):1351-1363.]
[16] 兰国栋,胡晏玲.乌鲁木齐市一次冷空气过境天气对空气污染的影响分析[J].干旱环境监测,2007,21(4):205-209.[LAN Guodong,HU Yanling. Influencing analysis of passing cold air on air pollution in Urumqi[J].Arid Environmental Monitoring,2007,21(4):205-209.]
[17] 杨晓玲,丁文魁,马中华,等.河西走廊东部强降温变化特征和典型环流型[J].气象,2016,42(6):756-763.[YANG Xiaoling,DING Wenkui,MA Zhonghua,et al.Change characteristic and typical circulation type of strong cooling in eastern Hexi Corridor[J].Meteorological Monthly,2016,42(6):756-763.]
[18] 徐亮,杨昭明.2013年初夏青海北部地区一次罕见低温冻害天气个例分析[J].青海农林科技,2014,(4):48-51.[ XU Liang,YANG Zhaoming.Analysis on a rare low-temperature and freeze-injury weather process in early summer 2013 in the northern Qinghai[J].Science Technology of Qinghai Farming and Forestry,2014,(4):48-51.]
[19] 王晓明,徐春,韵芸,等.2010年青海省海南地区一次大风强降温天气分析[J].青海科技,2011,11(1):26-28. [WANG Xiaomin,XU Chun,YUN Yun,et al.Analysis a gale weather of cooling process 2010 in the sorthern Qinghai[J].Science Technology of Qinghai,2011,11(1):26-28.]
[20] 邓爱娟,刘志雄,刘可群,等.春秋季冷空气过程对不同养殖水体水温的影响[J].中国农学通报,2016,32(19):120-129. [DENG Aijuan,LIU Zhixiong,LIU Kequn,et al.Cold air in spring and autumn-effect on temperature of different aquatic water[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2016,32(19):120-129.]
[21] 阮烨,牛静萍,张莉,等.冷空气活动对心脑血管疾病发生相关敏感指标影响的研究[J].环境与健康杂志,2012,29(6):496-498.[RUAN Ye,NIU Jingping,ZHANG Li,et al.Impact of cold air activities on sensitive indexes for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases[J].Journal of Environment and Health,2012,29(6):496-498.]
[22] 丁一汇,王遵娅,何金海,等.近50 a来中国气候变化特征的再分析[J].气象学报,2004,62(2):228-236.[DING Yihui,WANG Zunya,HE Jinhai,et al.An updating analysis of the climate change in China in recent 50 years[J].Acta Meterologica Sinica,2004,62(2):228-236.]
[23] 吕少宁,李栋梁,文军,等.全球变暖背景下青藏高原气温周期变化与突变分析[J].高原气象,2010,29(6):1378-1385.[LYU Shaoning,LI Dongliang,WEN Jun,et al.Analysis on periodic variations and abrupt change of air temperature over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau under global warming[J].Plateau Meteo,2010,29(6):1378-1385.]