塔里木灌区农业气候资源动态变化对膜下滴灌棉花种植的影响
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摘要
根据塔里木灌区-阿拉尔垦区1987~2014年逐日地面气象数据和2000~2014年逐年平均皮棉产量数据,运用统计学方法分析了塔里木灌区-阿拉尔垦区农业气候资源的动态变化对膜下滴灌棉花种植的影响。结果表明:(1)1987年后,塔里木灌区-阿拉尔垦区年平均气温、年平均最低气温和年降水量呈减少趋势,减幅分别为0.063℃/10 a(p<0.01)、0.115℃/10 a(p<0.01)和0.054 mm/10 a(p>0.05);年平均最高气温和年日照时数呈增加趋势,增幅分别为0.263℃/10 a(p>0.05)和57.9 h/10 a(p﹤0.01)。(2)1987年后,塔里木灌区-阿拉尔垦区四季气温呈"春暖―夏暖―秋冷―冬冷"的动态变化;降水量呈"春多―夏少―秋多―冬多"的动态变化;日照时数均呈增加趋势,春、秋季增幅较大。(3)塔里木灌区-阿拉尔垦区膜下滴灌棉花产量的增幅与≥12℃终日的提前和≥12℃持续天数的延长有关,与≥12℃初日的提前关系不明显;与春季生育期平均气温、平均最高气温的降低和日照时数增加有关,与夏季生育期平均最高气温的升高有关,与其它不同生育期气候要素关系不明显。
Based on the meteorological date from 1987 to 2014 and lint yield from 2000 to 2014 in Alar irrigation area,the influence of the change of agricultural climate resources on the cotton cultivation under drip irrigation were analyzed with statistical method in the Alar irrigation area.The result shows that:(1) The annual average air temperature,annual average minimum air temperature and precipitation are reducing,and the damping are 0.063 ℃/10 a(p<0.01),0.115 ℃/10 a(p<0.01) and 0.054 mm/10 a(p>0.05) respectively;The annual average maximum air temperature and annual are increasing with the and growth of 0.263 ℃/10 a(p>0.05) and 57.9 h/10 a(p ﹤ 0.01) after 1987 respectively.(2) The four season air temperature appears the trends of spring warming-summer warming-autumn cooling-winter cooling,and for the precipitation performs spring increasing-summer reducing-autumn increasing-winter increasing,the sun shine hours is increasing,with higher growth in spring and autumn in Alar irrigation area.(3) The increased yield of cotton is correlated with the advanced end of ≥12 ℃ data and and extended of ≥12 ℃ duration,and is very little correlated with the advanced of ≥12 ℃ initial data;And it is correlated with the increased average air temperature,average maximum air temperature and sun shines hours in spring growth period,and it is related with increased maximum air temperature in summer growth period,and there are very little relationship with others climate elements in different growth period in Alar irrigation area.
Based on the meteorological date from 1987 to 2014 and lint yield from 2000 to 2014 in Alar irrigation area,the influence of the change of agricultural climate resources on the cotton cultivation under drip irrigation were analyzed with statistical method in the Alar irrigation area.The result shows that:(1) The annual average air temperature,annual average minimum air temperature and precipitation are reducing,and the damping are 0.063 ℃/10 a(p<0.01),0.115 ℃/10 a(p<0.01) and 0.054 mm/10 a(p>0.05) respectively;The annual average maximum air temperature and annual are increasing with the and growth of 0.263 ℃/10 a(p>0.05) and 57.9 h/10 a(p ﹤ 0.01) after 1987 respectively.(2) The four season air temperature appears the trends of spring warming-summer warming-autumn cooling-winter cooling,and for the precipitation performs spring increasing-summer reducing-autumn increasing-winter increasing,the sun shine hours is increasing,with higher growth in spring and autumn in Alar irrigation area.(3) The increased yield of cotton is correlated with the advanced end of ≥12 ℃ data and and extended of ≥12 ℃ duration,and is very little correlated with the advanced of ≥12 ℃ initial data;And it is correlated with the increased average air temperature,average maximum air temperature and sun shines hours in spring growth period,and it is related with increased maximum air temperature in summer growth period,and there are very little relationship with others climate elements in different growth period in Alar irrigation area.
引文
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[4]邱新法,刘昌明,曾燕.黄河流域近40年蒸发皿蒸发量的气候变化特征[J].自然资源学报,2003,18(4):437-442.
[5]Yang Y M,Yang Y H,Han S M,et al.Predicting of cotton yield and water demand under climate change and future adaptation measures[J].Agricultural Water Management,2014,144:42-53.
[6]陈金梅,沈建知,王剑峰.气候变化对新疆乌苏市棉花生产的影响及应对措施[J].中国棉花,2009(06):31.
[7]徐德源.新疆农业气候资源区划[M].北京:气象出版社,1989.
[8]牛建龙,彭杰,王家强.等.新疆阿拉尔地区近53年气候变化特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(1):72-77.
[9]任振球.塔克拉玛干地区干湿波动与全球温度变化关系探讨[J].中国沙漠,1994,14(2):1-8.
[10]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,1999:42-50.
[11]孙彦坤.农业气象学实验指导[M].北京:气象出版社,2014:52-60.
[12]牛建龙,王家强,周烜,等.南疆阿拉尔地区近53年日照时数变化特征分析[J].塔里木大学学报,2017,1(29),126-132.