再生资源产业关联及宏观经济效应分析
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摘要
"十三五"期间,再生资源产业发展备受重视,规模不断扩大。可以预计的是,该产业与其他产业间的关联关系将更加紧密,对国民经济的影响也将加大。然而现有文献对这方面的研究相对较少。本文基于投入产出方法,采用2007年、2012年中国投入产出表,实证分析再生资源产业的关联效应和宏观经济效应。结果表明:(1)再生资源产业前向关联大于后向关联,即对下游产业(如钢压延产品加工业、造纸和纸制品业等部门)的支撑大于对上游产业(如塑料制品业、有色金属压延加工业等部门)的拉动;(2)再生资源产业受国民经济发展的拉动作用大于其对整个国民经济的推动作用;(3)再生资源产业投资效应最强,就业和出口效应较弱,消费效应为零;(4)样本期内,产业关联和宏观经济效应均有所提升。可见,该产业未来的发展势头良好,除了具有显著的环境效益之外,也将发挥良好的经济效益。
During the period of China's 13th Five-Year Plan, much attention has been paid to the development of recycled resources. The relationship between this industry and other industries will be increasingly related, and impact on the national economy will increase. However, there is relatively little research available on this topic. Here, based on input-output tables of 135 and 139 sectors in 2007 and 2012 we calculated a series of coefficients for the industrial correlation degree,spread effect and macroeconomic effect, and analyzed the correlation and macroeconomic effects of the recycled resources industry. We found that forward association of the recycled resources industry is greater than backward association, indicating the supporting role of the recycled resources industry to downstream industries(e.g. rolling of steel, manufacture of paper and paper products) is greater than to upstream industries(e.g. manufacture of plastic, rolling of non-ferrous metals). The sensitivity coefficient of the recycled resources industry is greater than its influence coefficient which shows that the stimulating effect from national economic development to the recycled resources industry is greater than the promoting effect from the recycled resources industry to national economic development. The investment effect of the recycled resources industry is strong, the employment and export effects are weak, and the consumption effect is zero. From 2007 to 2012,the industrial associations and macroeconomic effects of recycled resources industry have both improved. The future of the recycled resources industry has a good momentum of development and in addition to its significant environmental benefits, it has strong economic benefits.
During the period of China's 13th Five-Year Plan, much attention has been paid to the development of recycled resources. The relationship between this industry and other industries will be increasingly related, and impact on the national economy will increase. However, there is relatively little research available on this topic. Here, based on input-output tables of 135 and 139 sectors in 2007 and 2012 we calculated a series of coefficients for the industrial correlation degree,spread effect and macroeconomic effect, and analyzed the correlation and macroeconomic effects of the recycled resources industry. We found that forward association of the recycled resources industry is greater than backward association, indicating the supporting role of the recycled resources industry to downstream industries(e.g. rolling of steel, manufacture of paper and paper products) is greater than to upstream industries(e.g. manufacture of plastic, rolling of non-ferrous metals). The sensitivity coefficient of the recycled resources industry is greater than its influence coefficient which shows that the stimulating effect from national economic development to the recycled resources industry is greater than the promoting effect from the recycled resources industry to national economic development. The investment effect of the recycled resources industry is strong, the employment and export effects are weak, and the consumption effect is zero. From 2007 to 2012,the industrial associations and macroeconomic effects of recycled resources industry have both improved. The future of the recycled resources industry has a good momentum of development and in addition to its significant environmental benefits, it has strong economic benefits.
引文
[1]王俊博,范蕾,李新,等.基于物质流方法的中国铜资源社会存量研究[J].资源科学,2016,38(5):939-947.[Wang J B,Fan L,Li X,et al.Research on the social stock of copper resources in China based on the material flow analysis[J].Resources Science,2016,38(5):939-947.]
[2]姚从容,田旖卿,陈星,等.中国城市电子废弃物回收处置现状-基于天津市的调查[J].资源科学,2009,31(5):836-843.[Yao CR,Tian Y Q,Chen X,et al.Status of recycling and treatment of electronic waste in the cities of China:base on the investigation of Tianjin[J].Resources Science,2009,31(5):836-843.]
[3]左铁镛.积极支持再生资源产业发展[J].企业世界,2006,(12):31-32.[Zuo T Y.Support the development of renewable resources industry positively[J].Business World,2006,(12):31-32.]
[4]Gu Y F,Wu Y F,Xu M,et al.Waste electrical and electronic equipment(WEEE)recycling for a sustainable resource supply in the electronics industry in China[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2016,127:331-338.
[5]顾一帆,吴玉锋,穆献中,等.原生资源与再生资源的耦合配置[J].中国工业经济,2016,(5):22-39.[Gu Y F,Wu Y F,Mu X Z,et al.Coupling allocation of primary and secondary resources[J].China Industrial Economics,2016,(5):22-39.]
[6]邓光君.基于产业链分析的资源再生产业发展模式研究[J].湖北社会科学,2012,(5):73-76.[Deng G J.Based on the analysis of the industrial chain of resource recycling industry development module research[J].Hubei Social Sciences,2012,(5):73-76.]
[7]田西,吴玉锋,刘婷婷,等.京津冀城市圈生态一体化下的再生资源产业链协作模式初探-以再生铅为例[J].环境保护,2015,43(2):51-54.[Tian X,Wu Y F,Liu T T,et al.Exploration of secondary resources industry chain cooperative mode in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei ecology unification:a case study in secondary lead[J].Environmental Protection,2015,43(2):51-54.]
[8]顾一帆,王怀栋,吴玉锋,等.再生资源供应链的结构、行为和绩效分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(7):46-52.[Gu Y F,Wang H D,Wu Y F,et al.Structure,behavior and performance of secondary resource supply chain[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2017,27(7):46-52.]
[9]刘光富,田婷婷.基于顶层设计视角的我国再生资源产业链协同发展研究[J].生态经济,2017,33(1):77-79.[Liu G F,Tian TT.A Study on the synergetic development of renewable resources industry chain in china based on the top-design perspective[J].Ecological Economy,2017,33(1):77-79.]
[10]王良健,何琼峰.湖南省汨罗市再生资源产业集群升级研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,18(2):35-39.[Wang L J,He Q F.Research on industrial cluster upgrading of regeneration resources[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2012,18(2):35-39.]
[11]郭庭政,段宁,武春友.我国资源再生产业集群辨识研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(2):139-143.[Guo T Z,Duan N,Wu C Y.China's resource recycling industrial cluster[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2010,20(2):139-143.]
[12]郭庭政,李博洋,段宁,等.资源再生产业集群成因分析[J].软科学,2012,26(10):1-4.[Guo T Z,Li B Y,Duan N,et al.Cause analysis of scrap recycling industrial cluster[J].China Soft Science,2012,26(10):1-4.]
[13]种海港.中国再生资源产业的产业关联及效率演进研究[D].重庆:重庆大学,2015.[Zhong H G.Study on the Evolution of Industrial Association and Efficiency of Chinese Renewable Resources Industry[D].Chongqing:Chongqing University,2015.]
[14]唐燕,李健.工业城市资源再生产业与装备制造业经济协同度-以天津市为例[J].经济地理,2012,32(4):90-95.[Tang Y,Li J.Research on the economic synergistic degree between renewable resources industry and equipment manufacturing industry in industrial city[J].Economic Geography,2012,32(4):90-95.]
[15]中国物资再生协会.中国再生资源行业发展报告(2012)[M].北京:中国财富出版社,2013.[China National Resources Recycling Association.Industry Development Report of Recycled Resources of China,2012[M].Beijing:China Fortune Publishing House,2013.]
[16]王爱兰.中外再生资源产业发展比较与中国的推进策略[J].资源科学,2006,28(5):108-113.[Wang A L.Comparing recycling resource development and utilization between China and foreign countries and China's policy options[J].Resources Science,2006,28(5):108-113.]
[17]中华人民共和国商务部.再生资源回收管理办法[EB/OL].(2007-03-27)[2018-02-02].http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/aarticle/swfg/swfgbh/201101/20110107352011.html.[Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China.Measures for the Administration of the Recycling of Renewable Resources[EB/OL].(2007-03-27)[2018-02-02].http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/aarticle/swfg/swfgbh/201101/20110107352011.html.]
[18]王昶,徐尖,姚海琳.城市矿产理论研究综述[J].资源科学,2014,36(8):1618-1625.[Wang C,Xu J,Yao H L.A systematic review of urban mining theory[J].Resources Science,2014,36(8):1618-1625.]
[19]杨中艺,肖迪,袁剑刚.再生资源产业研究-产业生态学的视角[M].北京:科学出版社,2012.[Yang Z Y,Xiao D,Yuan J G.Research on Renewable Resource Industry-from the Perspective of Industrial Ecology[M].Beijing:The Science Publishing Company,2012.]
[20]刘起运,陈璋,苏汝劼.投入产出分析(第二版)[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2011.[Liu Q Y,Chen Z,Su R J.Input-Output Analysis(The Second Edition)[M].Beijing:China Renmin University Press,2011.]
[21]杨灿,郑正喜.产业关联效应测度理论辨析[J].统计研究,2014,31(12):11-19.[Yang C,Zheng Z X.Analysis of the theoretical issues on the measurement of industrial linkage[J].Statistical Research,2014,31(12):11-19.]
[22]陈曦,席强敏,李国平.制造业内部产业关联与空间分布关系的实证研究[J].地理研究,2015,34(10):1943-1956.[Chen X,Xi QM,Li G P.Industrial linkage and spatial distribution of manufacturing industry[J].Geographical Research,2015,34(10):1943-1956.]
[23]Song Y,Liu C,Langston C.Exploring the intersectoral linkages between real estate and construction[J].International Journal of Construction Management,2008,8(1):73-85.
[24]李秀婷,刘凡,吴迪,等.基于投入产出模型的我国房地产业宏观经济效应分析[J].系统工程理论与实践,2014,34(2):323-336.[Li X T,Liu F,Wu D,et al.Exploring the role of the real estate sector in the Chinese economy:1997-2007[J].Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,2014,34(2):323-336.]
[25]国家统计局国民经济核算司.2007年中国投入产出表[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2009.[Department of National Accounts National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China.Chinese Regional Input-Output Tables of 2007[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2009.]
[26]国家统计局国民经济核算司.2012年中国投入产出表[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2015.[Department of National Accounts National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China.Chinese Regional Input-Output Tables of 2012[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2015.]
[27]艾伯特·赫希曼.经济发展战略[M].北京:经济科学出版社,1991.[Hirschman A.The Strategy of Economic Development[M].Beijing:Economic Science Press,1991.]
[28]刘晓欣,胡晓,周弘.中国旅游产业关联度测算及宏观经济效应分析-基于2002年与2007年投入产出表视角[J].旅游学刊,2011,26(3):31-37.[Liu X X,Hu X,Zhou H.An analysis of the measurement of correlation of China’s tourism industry and macroeconomic effects-based on the perspective of input-output tables in 2002 and 2007[J].Tourism Tribune,2011,26(3):31-37.]
1)2012年投入产出表中为废弃资源和废旧材料回收加工业,2007年为废品废料部门,统计口径一致。
[2]姚从容,田旖卿,陈星,等.中国城市电子废弃物回收处置现状-基于天津市的调查[J].资源科学,2009,31(5):836-843.[Yao CR,Tian Y Q,Chen X,et al.Status of recycling and treatment of electronic waste in the cities of China:base on the investigation of Tianjin[J].Resources Science,2009,31(5):836-843.]
[3]左铁镛.积极支持再生资源产业发展[J].企业世界,2006,(12):31-32.[Zuo T Y.Support the development of renewable resources industry positively[J].Business World,2006,(12):31-32.]
[4]Gu Y F,Wu Y F,Xu M,et al.Waste electrical and electronic equipment(WEEE)recycling for a sustainable resource supply in the electronics industry in China[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2016,127:331-338.
[5]顾一帆,吴玉锋,穆献中,等.原生资源与再生资源的耦合配置[J].中国工业经济,2016,(5):22-39.[Gu Y F,Wu Y F,Mu X Z,et al.Coupling allocation of primary and secondary resources[J].China Industrial Economics,2016,(5):22-39.]
[6]邓光君.基于产业链分析的资源再生产业发展模式研究[J].湖北社会科学,2012,(5):73-76.[Deng G J.Based on the analysis of the industrial chain of resource recycling industry development module research[J].Hubei Social Sciences,2012,(5):73-76.]
[7]田西,吴玉锋,刘婷婷,等.京津冀城市圈生态一体化下的再生资源产业链协作模式初探-以再生铅为例[J].环境保护,2015,43(2):51-54.[Tian X,Wu Y F,Liu T T,et al.Exploration of secondary resources industry chain cooperative mode in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei ecology unification:a case study in secondary lead[J].Environmental Protection,2015,43(2):51-54.]
[8]顾一帆,王怀栋,吴玉锋,等.再生资源供应链的结构、行为和绩效分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(7):46-52.[Gu Y F,Wang H D,Wu Y F,et al.Structure,behavior and performance of secondary resource supply chain[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2017,27(7):46-52.]
[9]刘光富,田婷婷.基于顶层设计视角的我国再生资源产业链协同发展研究[J].生态经济,2017,33(1):77-79.[Liu G F,Tian TT.A Study on the synergetic development of renewable resources industry chain in china based on the top-design perspective[J].Ecological Economy,2017,33(1):77-79.]
[10]王良健,何琼峰.湖南省汨罗市再生资源产业集群升级研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,18(2):35-39.[Wang L J,He Q F.Research on industrial cluster upgrading of regeneration resources[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2012,18(2):35-39.]
[11]郭庭政,段宁,武春友.我国资源再生产业集群辨识研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(2):139-143.[Guo T Z,Duan N,Wu C Y.China's resource recycling industrial cluster[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2010,20(2):139-143.]
[12]郭庭政,李博洋,段宁,等.资源再生产业集群成因分析[J].软科学,2012,26(10):1-4.[Guo T Z,Li B Y,Duan N,et al.Cause analysis of scrap recycling industrial cluster[J].China Soft Science,2012,26(10):1-4.]
[13]种海港.中国再生资源产业的产业关联及效率演进研究[D].重庆:重庆大学,2015.[Zhong H G.Study on the Evolution of Industrial Association and Efficiency of Chinese Renewable Resources Industry[D].Chongqing:Chongqing University,2015.]
[14]唐燕,李健.工业城市资源再生产业与装备制造业经济协同度-以天津市为例[J].经济地理,2012,32(4):90-95.[Tang Y,Li J.Research on the economic synergistic degree between renewable resources industry and equipment manufacturing industry in industrial city[J].Economic Geography,2012,32(4):90-95.]
[15]中国物资再生协会.中国再生资源行业发展报告(2012)[M].北京:中国财富出版社,2013.[China National Resources Recycling Association.Industry Development Report of Recycled Resources of China,2012[M].Beijing:China Fortune Publishing House,2013.]
[16]王爱兰.中外再生资源产业发展比较与中国的推进策略[J].资源科学,2006,28(5):108-113.[Wang A L.Comparing recycling resource development and utilization between China and foreign countries and China's policy options[J].Resources Science,2006,28(5):108-113.]
[17]中华人民共和国商务部.再生资源回收管理办法[EB/OL].(2007-03-27)[2018-02-02].http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/aarticle/swfg/swfgbh/201101/20110107352011.html.[Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China.Measures for the Administration of the Recycling of Renewable Resources[EB/OL].(2007-03-27)[2018-02-02].http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/aarticle/swfg/swfgbh/201101/20110107352011.html.]
[18]王昶,徐尖,姚海琳.城市矿产理论研究综述[J].资源科学,2014,36(8):1618-1625.[Wang C,Xu J,Yao H L.A systematic review of urban mining theory[J].Resources Science,2014,36(8):1618-1625.]
[19]杨中艺,肖迪,袁剑刚.再生资源产业研究-产业生态学的视角[M].北京:科学出版社,2012.[Yang Z Y,Xiao D,Yuan J G.Research on Renewable Resource Industry-from the Perspective of Industrial Ecology[M].Beijing:The Science Publishing Company,2012.]
[20]刘起运,陈璋,苏汝劼.投入产出分析(第二版)[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2011.[Liu Q Y,Chen Z,Su R J.Input-Output Analysis(The Second Edition)[M].Beijing:China Renmin University Press,2011.]
[21]杨灿,郑正喜.产业关联效应测度理论辨析[J].统计研究,2014,31(12):11-19.[Yang C,Zheng Z X.Analysis of the theoretical issues on the measurement of industrial linkage[J].Statistical Research,2014,31(12):11-19.]
[22]陈曦,席强敏,李国平.制造业内部产业关联与空间分布关系的实证研究[J].地理研究,2015,34(10):1943-1956.[Chen X,Xi QM,Li G P.Industrial linkage and spatial distribution of manufacturing industry[J].Geographical Research,2015,34(10):1943-1956.]
[23]Song Y,Liu C,Langston C.Exploring the intersectoral linkages between real estate and construction[J].International Journal of Construction Management,2008,8(1):73-85.
[24]李秀婷,刘凡,吴迪,等.基于投入产出模型的我国房地产业宏观经济效应分析[J].系统工程理论与实践,2014,34(2):323-336.[Li X T,Liu F,Wu D,et al.Exploring the role of the real estate sector in the Chinese economy:1997-2007[J].Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,2014,34(2):323-336.]
[25]国家统计局国民经济核算司.2007年中国投入产出表[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2009.[Department of National Accounts National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China.Chinese Regional Input-Output Tables of 2007[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2009.]
[26]国家统计局国民经济核算司.2012年中国投入产出表[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2015.[Department of National Accounts National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China.Chinese Regional Input-Output Tables of 2012[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2015.]
[27]艾伯特·赫希曼.经济发展战略[M].北京:经济科学出版社,1991.[Hirschman A.The Strategy of Economic Development[M].Beijing:Economic Science Press,1991.]
[28]刘晓欣,胡晓,周弘.中国旅游产业关联度测算及宏观经济效应分析-基于2002年与2007年投入产出表视角[J].旅游学刊,2011,26(3):31-37.[Liu X X,Hu X,Zhou H.An analysis of the measurement of correlation of China’s tourism industry and macroeconomic effects-based on the perspective of input-output tables in 2002 and 2007[J].Tourism Tribune,2011,26(3):31-37.]
1)2012年投入产出表中为废弃资源和废旧材料回收加工业,2007年为废品废料部门,统计口径一致。