南水北调中线工程水源地降水变化分析
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摘要
南水北调中线工程水源地降水量的变化直接影响工程的成败。选取郧西、十堰、淅川3地1961～2008年的降水资料,采用趋势分析法、累积距平分析法和频谱法对水源地进行降水变化分析。结果发现:研究期内,水源地降水整体呈减少趋势,但空间上存在明显差异。水源地的降水集中在夏季,而且有进一步集中趋势。水源地年际降水有较明显的阶段性,有3个明显的增加期和2个减少期。根据频谱分析,水源地降水变化存在4年的短周期。
The water source area precipitation change of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project middle line directly affect the success or failure of the project. The precipitation data of Yunxi, Shiyan and Xichuan from 1961 to 2008 were selected and analyzed by trend analysis method, cumulative anomaly analysis method and spectrum method. The results showed that during the study period, the overall trend of water source area precipitation was decreasing, but there were significant differences in space. The water source area precipitation was concentrated in summer and had a further centralization trend. The water source area interannual precipitation had obvious stage. There were three obvious increasing periods and two decreasing periods. According to the spectrum analysis, there was a 4-year short period of the water source area precipitation change.
The water source area precipitation change of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project middle line directly affect the success or failure of the project. The precipitation data of Yunxi, Shiyan and Xichuan from 1961 to 2008 were selected and analyzed by trend analysis method, cumulative anomaly analysis method and spectrum method. The results showed that during the study period, the overall trend of water source area precipitation was decreasing, but there were significant differences in space. The water source area precipitation was concentrated in summer and had a further centralization trend. The water source area interannual precipitation had obvious stage. There were three obvious increasing periods and two decreasing periods. According to the spectrum analysis, there was a 4-year short period of the water source area precipitation change.
引文
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[3]唐见,曹慧群,陈进.南水北调中线水源地生态服务价值核算[J].人民长江,2018,49(11):29-34.
[4]曹玉升,畅建霞,黄强,等.南水北调中线输水调度实时控制策略[J].水科学进展,2017,28(1):133-139.
[5]房珊琪,杨珺,强艳芳,等.南水北调中线工程水源地化肥施用时空分布特征及其环境风险评价[J].农业环境科学学报,2018,37(1):124-136.
[6]王蕾,姚志鹏,吴蕊,等.南水北调中线陕西水源地污染源排放时空变化特征[J].中国环境监测,2017,33(1):61-67.
[7]李凌程,张利平,夏军,等.气候波动和人类活动对南水北调中线工程典型流域径流影响的定量评估[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(2):118-126.
[8]刘海,殷杰,陈晶,等.基于遥感影像的丹江口水库水域面积动态变化与原因研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(11):1 760-1 766.
[9]夏军,马协一,邹磊,等.气候变化和人类活动对汉江上游径流变化影响的定量研究[J].南水北调与水利科技,2017,15(1):1-6.
[10]杨娜,赵巧华,闫桂霞,等.气候变化和人类活动对丹江口入库径流的影响及评估[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(7):1 129-1 134.
[11]余江游,夏军,佘敦先,等.南水北调中线工程水源地与海河受水区干旱遭遇研究[J].南水北调与水利科技,2018,16(1):63-68.
[12]祝诗学,梁忠民,戴昌军,等.丹江口水库流域月尺度降雨与径流预报研究[J].南水北调与水利科技,2016,14(1):96-101.
[13]于福荣,王友贺.频谱分析法在郑州市降水量预报中的应用[J].人民长江,2012,43(10):50-52.