贵州境内高铁沿线气象灾害特征及关键服务期探讨
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摘要
该文应用层次分析法和专家咨询法,建立贵州境内高铁沿线风险评价指标体系,确定影响贵州境内高铁的主要气象灾害为暴雨,其次为雷暴、大风、凝冻、积雪等。利用贵州境内高铁沿线23个气象站1961—2015年55 a气象观测资料,分析贵州境内高铁沿线主要气象灾害的气候特征,表明暴雨日数呈上升趋势,年平均暴雨日数为2~4.9 d,沪昆高铁西段是暴雨中心;雷暴日数呈下降趋势,年平均雷暴日数为43.6~71.1 d,沪昆高铁西段是雷暴频发区;大风日数呈显著下降趋势,沪昆高铁西段出现大风的频率最高,年平均大风日数大于20 d,其余路段不足5 d;凝冻日数总体呈下降趋势,沪昆高铁和贵广高铁均不在重凝冻区,但沪昆高铁普安到晴隆段和麻江段年平均凝冻日数较多为10~15 d;积雪日数总体呈现波动趋势,其线性增长率变化不大,沪昆高铁麻江段及三穗到铜仁南段积雪日数在5~7 d,其余路段不足5 d。确定高铁沿线主要气象灾害的关键服务期,利用月平均气象灾害日数,分析各路段气象灾害对高铁影响的关键服务期及重点路段,对高铁气象服务具有参考意义。
Using the AHP and Delphi method,the risk evaluation index system of high-speed railway in Guizhou was established. To determine the effects of main meteorological disasters along the high-speed railway in Guizhou is rainstorms,followed by thunderstorms,gale,freezing,snow,etc.,the data of 23 meteorological stations along the high-speed railway in Guizhou from 1961 to 2015,was used to analyze the climatic characteristics of the main meteorological disasters. The results show that the number of rainstorm days is on the rise,the average annual rainstorm days is 2 ~ 4. 9 d,and the west section of Shanghai-Kunming high-speed railway is the rainstorm center. The number of thunderstorms declined,and the annual average thunderstorm days is 43. 6 ~ 71. 1 d,and the west section of Shanghai-Kunming high-speed railway is a frequent thunderstorm area. The number of gale days shows a significant decline. The frequency of gale is the highest in the west section of Shanghai-Kunming high-speed railway,the average annual gale days is more than 20 d,and the other sections is less than 5 d.The frozen days showed a decreasing trend,Although the Shanghai-Kunming and Guiguang-Guangzhou high-speed railway in Guizhou are not heavy frozen zone,from Pu'an to Qinglong and Majiang section of Shanghai-Kunming high-speed railway,the average annual freezing days is 10 ~ 15 d. The annual average day of snow is generally fluctuating,and its linear growth rate has little change,the average annual freezing days in Majiang and Sansui to Tongren is 5 ~ 7 d,and the other sections is less than 5 d. Determining the key service period of major meteorological disasters along the high speed rail,and using the means of monthly meteorological disaster data to analyze the key service period and key section of the impact of meteorological disasters,It is of great significance to the meteorological service of the high-speed railway.
Using the AHP and Delphi method,the risk evaluation index system of high-speed railway in Guizhou was established. To determine the effects of main meteorological disasters along the high-speed railway in Guizhou is rainstorms,followed by thunderstorms,gale,freezing,snow,etc.,the data of 23 meteorological stations along the high-speed railway in Guizhou from 1961 to 2015,was used to analyze the climatic characteristics of the main meteorological disasters. The results show that the number of rainstorm days is on the rise,the average annual rainstorm days is 2 ~ 4. 9 d,and the west section of Shanghai-Kunming high-speed railway is the rainstorm center. The number of thunderstorms declined,and the annual average thunderstorm days is 43. 6 ~ 71. 1 d,and the west section of Shanghai-Kunming high-speed railway is a frequent thunderstorm area. The number of gale days shows a significant decline. The frequency of gale is the highest in the west section of Shanghai-Kunming high-speed railway,the average annual gale days is more than 20 d,and the other sections is less than 5 d.The frozen days showed a decreasing trend,Although the Shanghai-Kunming and Guiguang-Guangzhou high-speed railway in Guizhou are not heavy frozen zone,from Pu'an to Qinglong and Majiang section of Shanghai-Kunming high-speed railway,the average annual freezing days is 10 ~ 15 d. The annual average day of snow is generally fluctuating,and its linear growth rate has little change,the average annual freezing days in Majiang and Sansui to Tongren is 5 ~ 7 d,and the other sections is less than 5 d. Determining the key service period of major meteorological disasters along the high speed rail,and using the means of monthly meteorological disaster data to analyze the key service period and key section of the impact of meteorological disasters,It is of great significance to the meteorological service of the high-speed railway.
引文
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[14]杨尚英.“西-宝”高速公路不良气象条件分析及对策[J].防灾科技学院学报,2008,10(4):47-48.
[2]马韫娟,马淑红.我国高速铁路客运专线桥梁设计风速研究[J].铁道技术监督,2009,37(10):34-37.
[3]张廷龙,郄秀书,袁铁,等.青藏铁路沿线闪电活动的时空分布特征[J].高原气象.2004,23(5):673-677.
[4]张强,杨贤为,张永山,等.京沪沿线强降水频率及大风频率分布特征[J].气象科技,2003,31(1):45-49.
[5]谢静芳,施舍,王宝书,等.哈大高速铁路运营气象服务需求探讨[J].吉林气象,2013(4):38-40.
[6]王志,田华,冯蕾,等.基于GIS的高速铁路大风风险区划研究[A]/第十四届中国科协年会第14分会场:极端天气事件与公共气象服务发展论坛论文集[C],2012.
[7]崔新强,周小兰,付佳,等.高速铁路安全运行高影响天气条件等级标准研究[J].灾害学,2016,31(3):26-30.
[8]吴安坤,刘波,张淑霞,等.贵广高铁沿线雷电活动特征分析[J].贵州气象,2016,40(3):70-74.
[9]孙丽,李岚,李志江,等.哈大高铁辽宁段不良气象条件分析及服务探讨[A].第31届中国气象学年会论文集[C],2014.
[10]QX/T 334-2016.高速铁路运行高影响天气条件等级[S].
[11]明惠青,张凯,侯亚红,等.辽宁境内高铁沿线不良气象条件时空分布特征[J].气象与环境学报,2016,32(6):160-165.
[12]日本高速铁路安全对策资料选译[R].北京:京沪高速铁路技术研究总体组,2000.
[13]日本法国德国高速铁路运营安全专题资料汇编[R].北京:铁道部,2010:249-252.
[14]杨尚英.“西-宝”高速公路不良气象条件分析及对策[J].防灾科技学院学报,2008,10(4):47-48.
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