基于共同前沿SBM模型的农业用水效率测度及改善潜力
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摘要
为了实现农业水资源可持续利用和保障国家粮食安全,地区必须提高农业用水效率。基于共同前沿下的非期望产出SBM模型,对中国31个省市1998～2015年农业用水效率进行了测算,在综合考虑各地农业资源承载力、环境容量、生态类型和发展基础等因素的基础上,将中国各地区进行分组,分别考虑了各组区域下农业用水效率的差异性、变动趋势以及改善潜力。结果表明:共同前沿下,各组农业用水效率值从高到低排列依次为保护发展区、优先发展区和适度发展区,其多年均值分别为0. 623,0. 568和0. 432。这表明,如果采用潜在的最优生产技术,三大区域将分别平均有37. 7%、43. 2%和56. 8%的效率提升空间,改善潜力巨大。管理无效和技术无效是导致地区农业用水效率损失的两大来源,优先发展区效率损失主要是由管理无效造成,完善管理制度和提高管理运营水平是促进农业用水效率改善的重要策略,保护发展区和适度发展区效率损失的原因则具有多样性,管理无效和技术无效二者皆有,因此需要结合技术和管理双角度来设计效率改善策略。
In order to achieve the sustainability of agricultural water resource and assure national food security,it is imperative to improve the regional agricultural water efficiency( AWE). In this study,we measure the AWE of31 Chinese provinces( municipalities,autonomous regions) for the years 1998 to 2015 based on SBM model which considers both undesirable outputs and metafrontier technology simultaneously. Subsequently,taking the factors such as the bearing capacity of agricultural resources, environmental capacity, ecological type and development foundation into account,we divide the sample into three groups: prioritized-development zone,moderate-development zone,protected-development zone. Then the regional differences,evolution trend and improvement potential are empirical studied,respectively. The results showed that the average values of AWE with reference to metafrontier of protected-development zone, prioritized-development zone and moderatedevelopment zone are 0. 632,0. 568 and 0. 432. The finding showed that if the potential optimal production technology was adopted,the three major regions would have a large room for efficiency improvement of 37. 7%,43. 2% and 56. 8%,respectively,indicating the potential for improvement would be huge. Technology and management ineffectiveness were the two major sources of regional AWE loss. The efficiency loss of the prioritized-development area is mainly caused by the ineffective management,showing that improving both the management system and the management level are of significance strategies to promote the regional AWE. The loss of efficiencies in protected-development zone and moderate-development zone are mainly resulted from the low level of agricultural water production technology and the ineffective management. Thus,it was necessary to combine the technical and management improvement strategy to improve the efficiency.
In order to achieve the sustainability of agricultural water resource and assure national food security,it is imperative to improve the regional agricultural water efficiency( AWE). In this study,we measure the AWE of31 Chinese provinces( municipalities,autonomous regions) for the years 1998 to 2015 based on SBM model which considers both undesirable outputs and metafrontier technology simultaneously. Subsequently,taking the factors such as the bearing capacity of agricultural resources, environmental capacity, ecological type and development foundation into account,we divide the sample into three groups: prioritized-development zone,moderate-development zone,protected-development zone. Then the regional differences,evolution trend and improvement potential are empirical studied,respectively. The results showed that the average values of AWE with reference to metafrontier of protected-development zone, prioritized-development zone and moderatedevelopment zone are 0. 632,0. 568 and 0. 432. The finding showed that if the potential optimal production technology was adopted,the three major regions would have a large room for efficiency improvement of 37. 7%,43. 2% and 56. 8%,respectively,indicating the potential for improvement would be huge. Technology and management ineffectiveness were the two major sources of regional AWE loss. The efficiency loss of the prioritized-development area is mainly caused by the ineffective management,showing that improving both the management system and the management level are of significance strategies to promote the regional AWE. The loss of efficiencies in protected-development zone and moderate-development zone are mainly resulted from the low level of agricultural water production technology and the ineffective management. Thus,it was necessary to combine the technical and management improvement strategy to improve the efficiency.
引文
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(1)利用《中国水资源公报2015》数据测算得出,耕地实际灌溉用水量占农业用水量的95%以上,草地和林地灌溉用水量与之相比可以忽略;另外,根据《中国统计年鉴》的定义,有效(耕地)灌溉面积等于能够进行正常灌溉的水田和水浇地面积之和,同时借鉴前人研究成果,本文将有效(耕地)灌溉面积作为农业用水效率测算过程中的土地投入.
[2]王学渊.农业水资源生产配置效率研究[M].经济科学出版社,2009.WANG X Y. Research on production and allocation efficiency of agricultural water resources[M]. Economic Science Press,2009.
[3]杨骞,武荣伟,王弘儒.中国农业用水效率的分布格局与空间交互影响:1998-2013年[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2017(2):72-88.YANG Q,WU R W,WANG H R. Regional disparities and spatial interaction of agricultural water use efficiency:1998-2013[J]. 2017(2):72-88.
[4] HU J,WANG S,YEH F. Total-factor water efficiency of regions in China[J]. Resources Policy,2006,31(4):217-230.
[5] BATTESE G E,COELLI T J. A model for technical inefficiency effects in a stochastic frontier production function for panel data[J]. Empirical Economics,1995,20(2):325-332.
[6] KANEKO S,TANAKA K,TOYOTA T. Water efficiency of agricultural production in China:Regional Comparison from 1999to 2002[J]. International Journal of Agricultural Resources,Governance and Ecology,2004(3):231-251.
[7]张雄化,钟若愚.灌溉水资源效率、空间溢出与影响因素[J].华南农业大学学报(社会科学版),2015(4):20-28.ZHANG X H,ZHONG R Y. Empirical research on the efficiency,spatial spillover and impact factors of irrigation water[J].Journal of South China Agricultural University(Social Science Edition),2015(4):20-28.
[8]耿献辉,张晓恒,宋玉兰.农业灌溉用水效率及其影响因素实证分析——基于随机前沿生产函数和新疆棉农调研数据[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(6):934-943.GENG X H,ZHANG X H,SONG Y L. Measurement of irrigation water efficiency and analysis of influential factors:an empirical study based on stochastic production frontier and cotton farmers’data in Xinjiang[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2014,29(6):934-943.
[9]王学渊,赵连阁.中国农业用水效率及影响因素——基于1997-2006年省区面板数据的SFA分析[J].农业经济问题,2008,29(3):10-18.WANG X Y,ZHAO L G. China’s agricultural water efficiency and influencing factors:Based on SFA analysis of panel data from 1997 to 2006[J]. Issues in Agricultural Economy,2008,29(3):10-18.
[10] SUN C Z,HONG-XIN L I. Spatio-temporal differences in relative efficiency of water resource utilization in Liaoning Province[J]. Resources Science,2008,30(10):1442-1448.
[11] YILMAZ B,YURDUSEV M A,HARMANCIOGLU N B. The assessment of irrigation efficiency in Buyuk Menderes Basin[J].Water Resources Management,2009,23(6):1081-1095.
[12]佟金萍,马剑锋,王圣,等.长江流域农业用水效率研究:基于超效率DEA和Tobit模型[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(4):603-608.TONG J P,MA J F,WANG S,et al. Research on agricultural water use efficiency in Yangtze river basin based on super-efficiency DEA and Tobit model[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2015,24(4):603-608.
[13]杨扬,蒋书彬.基于DEA和Malmquist指数的我国农业灌溉用水效率评价[J].生态经济(中文版),2016,32(5):147-151.YANG Y,JIANG S B. Irrigation water efficiency evaluation of agricultural irrigation water efficiency based on DEA and Malmquist index[J]. Ecological Economy,2016,32(5):147-151.
[14]屈晓娟,方兰.西部地区农业用水效率实证分析[J].统计与决策,2017(11):97-100.QU X J,FANG L. An empirical analysis of agricultural water efficiency in western China[J]. Statistics&Decision,2017(11):97-100.
[15]封志明,郑海霞,刘宝勤.基于遗传投影寻踪模型的农业水资源利用效率综合评价[J].农业工程学报,2005,21(3):66-70.FENG Z M,ZHEN H X,LIU B Q. Comprehensive evaluation of agricultural water use efficiency based on genetic projection pursuit model[J]. Transactions of the CSAE,2005,21(3):66-70.
[16]李绍飞.改进的模糊物元模型在灌区农业用水效率评价中的应用[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(11):175-181.LI S F. Application of improved fuzzy matter-element model to evaluate the irrigation water use efficiency[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2011,25(11):175-181.
[17]户艳领,陈志国,刘振国,等.基于熵值法的河北省农业用水利用效率研究[J].中国农业资源与区划,2015,36(3):136-142.HU Y L,CHEN Z G,LIU Z G,et al. Study of the utilization efficiency of water resources in Hebei province based on the entropy method[J]. Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2015,36(3):136-142.
[18]佟金萍,马剑锋,王慧敏,等.中国农业全要素用水效率及其影响因素分析[J].经济问题,2014(6):101-106.TONG J P,MA J F,WANG H M,et al. Research on agricultural total-factor water use efficiency and its influencing factors in China[J]. On Economic Problems,2014(6):101-106.
[19]魏玲玲,李万明.新疆农业用水效率及影响因素分析[J].新疆大学学报(哲学·人文社会科学汉文版),2014,42(1):7-10.WEI L L,LI W M. Agricultural water use efficiency and influencing factors in Xinjiang[J]. Journal of Xinjiang University(Philosophy,Humanities&Social Science,2014,42(1):7-10.
[20]赵姜,孟鹤,龚晶.京津冀地区农业全要素用水效率及影响因素分析[J].中国农业大学学报,2017,22(3):76-84.ZHAO J,MENG H,GONG J. Measurement of total factor agricultural water efficiency and analysis of influential factor in JingJin-Ji area[J]. Journal of China Agricultural University,2017,22(3):76-84.
[21]许朗,黄莺.农业灌溉用水效率及其影响因素分析——基于安徽省蒙城县的实地调查[J].资源科学,2012,34(1):105-113.XU L,HUANG Y. Measurement of irrigation water efficiency and analysis of influential factors:an empirical study of Mengcheng County in Anhui Province[J]. Resources Science,2012,34(1):105-113.
[22] BATTESE G E,RAO D S P,O’DONNELL C J. A metafrontier production function for estimation of technical efficiencies and technology gaps for firms operating under different technologies[J]. Journal of Productivity Analysis,2004(21):91-103.
[23] O’Donnell C J. Metafrontier frameworks for the study of firmlevel efficiencies and technology ratios[J]. Empirical Economics 2008(34):231-255
[24] CHIU C R,LIOU J L,WU P I,et al. Decomposition of the environment inefficiency of the meta-frontier with undesirable output[J]. Energy Economics,2012,34(5):1392-1399.
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(1)利用《中国水资源公报2015》数据测算得出,耕地实际灌溉用水量占农业用水量的95%以上,草地和林地灌溉用水量与之相比可以忽略;另外,根据《中国统计年鉴》的定义,有效(耕地)灌溉面积等于能够进行正常灌溉的水田和水浇地面积之和,同时借鉴前人研究成果,本文将有效(耕地)灌溉面积作为农业用水效率测算过程中的土地投入.