错误恐惧引起的证券监管者非理性偏差研究
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摘要
证券市场监管效果是社会关注的焦点,证券监管者非理性偏差直接影响着证券监管效果。本文通过有情境因素的问卷调查,发现证券监管者普遍存在损失厌恶、后悔厌恶及偏好逆转三种非理性偏差。实证研究表明三种非理性偏差之间存在关联性,其中后悔厌恶和偏好逆转呈现高度正相关,后悔厌恶和损失厌恶、偏好逆转和损失厌恶都呈现中度正相关。通过分析其形成原因和表现形式,发现监管者错误恐惧心理是引起三种非理性偏差的共同原因,错误恐惧经历了错误预期、错误体验和错误承担三个演化阶段。在此基础上,进一步分析了错误恐惧导致决策失误的途径,以助于监管者克服错误恐惧,防范非理性偏差。
Regulatory effectiveness of securities market is the social focus,and irrational biases of securities regulators directly affects securities regulatory effectiveness.In this article, based on situational survey we find that three irrational biases of Loss Aversion, Regret Aversion and Preference Reversal generally existingfor securities regulators. Empirical study shows that the three irrational biases are correlated with each other, i.e. there are a highly positive correlation between Regret Aversion and Preference Reversal, and a moderately positive correlation as well between Regret Aversion and Loss Aversion as between Preference Reversal and Loss Aversion. By further analyzing causes and forms of the three irrational biases, it is found that regulators' unreasonable fear during the decision-making process was the common cause and experienced three stages of evolution: unreasonable expectation, unreasonable experience and unreasonable commitment. Furthermore, this article demonstrates the path of unreasonable fear resulting decision mistakes, which will help regulators overcome unreasonable fear and keep away from irrational biases.
Regulatory effectiveness of securities market is the social focus,and irrational biases of securities regulators directly affects securities regulatory effectiveness.In this article, based on situational survey we find that three irrational biases of Loss Aversion, Regret Aversion and Preference Reversal generally existingfor securities regulators. Empirical study shows that the three irrational biases are correlated with each other, i.e. there are a highly positive correlation between Regret Aversion and Preference Reversal, and a moderately positive correlation as well between Regret Aversion and Loss Aversion as between Preference Reversal and Loss Aversion. By further analyzing causes and forms of the three irrational biases, it is found that regulators' unreasonable fear during the decision-making process was the common cause and experienced three stages of evolution: unreasonable expectation, unreasonable experience and unreasonable commitment. Furthermore, this article demonstrates the path of unreasonable fear resulting decision mistakes, which will help regulators overcome unreasonable fear and keep away from irrational biases.
引文
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[19]KANEE J.Ethical Foundations of Financial Regulation[R].National Bureau of Economic Research,1997.
[20]LIEHTENSTEIN S,SLOVIEP.Reversals of Preference Between Bids and Choices in Gambling Decisions[J].Journal of Experimental Psychology,1971,89(89):46-55.
[21]THALERR.Toward APositive Theory of Consumer Choice[J].Economic Behavior Organization,1980,1(1):39-60.
[2]郝旭光.中国证券市场监管有效性研究[J].中国工业经济,2011(6):16-25.
[3]郝旭光.证券市场监管者非理性研究[J].中央财经大学学报,2015(2):24-32.
[4]郝旭光,李放,张士玉.中国证券监管者行为偏差及其关联性研究[J].中国工业经济,2013(10):96-107.
[5]李鹏举.我国证券市场参与者的非理性行为分析及监管建议[J].东方企业文化,2012(2):110-111.
[6]尚洁.我国证券市场主体行为存在的问题及对策——从行为金融学角度分析[J].时代经贸,2011(21):217-218.
[7]肖崎.次贷危机与金融监管改革——基于行为金融理论的分析[J].新金融,2011(9):55-60.
[8]熊远来.风险态度、概率结构对偏好反转的影响[D].浙江:浙江大学,2006.
[9]赵静梅,吴风云.非理性的博弈:行为金融学视角的证券监管[J].宏观经济研究,2008(12):57-63.
[10]BERG J E,DICKHAUT,J W&RIETZ T A.Preference Reversals and Induced Risk Preferences:Evidence of Noisy Maximization[J].Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,2003,27(2):139-170.
[11]CHOI S J,PRITCHARD A C.Behavioral Economics and the SEC[J].Stanford Law Review,2003:1-73.
[12]DANIEL K,HIRSHLEIFER D,TEOH S H.Investor Psychology in Capital Markets:Evidence and Policy Implications[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2002,49(1):139-209.
[13]DYNES P,DYNES R R.Financial Crises on the Context of Disaster Theory:Recent US Cast Studies[J].1997.Journal of Strategic Information Systems,1997,19(3):154-170.
[14]GLAESER E L,SCHUETZ J,WARD B.Regulation and the Rise of Housing Prices in Greater Boston A study Based on New Data from 187 Communities in Eastern Massachusetts[J].Genome Biology,2006,8(10):1-10.
[15]GONZALEZ-VALLEJO C,WALLSTEN T S.Effects of Probability Mode on Preference Reversal[J].Journal of Experimental Psychology:Learning,Memory,and Cognition,1992,18(4):855.
[16]GRETHER D M,PLOTT C R.Economic Theory of Choice and the Preference Reversal Phenomenon[J].The American Economic Review,1979,69(4):623-638.
[17]JOLLS C.Behavioral Lawand Economics[R].National Bureau of Economic Research,2007.
[18]KAHNEMAN D,TVERSKY A.Prospect Theory:An Analysis of Decision under Risk[J].Econometrica:Journal of the Econometric Society,1979,47(2):263-291.
[19]KANEE J.Ethical Foundations of Financial Regulation[R].National Bureau of Economic Research,1997.
[20]LIEHTENSTEIN S,SLOVIEP.Reversals of Preference Between Bids and Choices in Gambling Decisions[J].Journal of Experimental Psychology,1971,89(89):46-55.
[21]THALERR.Toward APositive Theory of Consumer Choice[J].Economic Behavior Organization,1980,1(1):39-60.
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