西双版纳人象冲突保险产品设计及其费率厘定
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摘要
人象冲突的频繁发生,给西双版纳政府和村民带来极大不便。文章在西双版纳人象冲突风险区域评估研究成果的基础上,基于RStudio软件中fitdistrplus程序包对2011—2016年西双版纳人象冲突补偿数据的分布进行拟合,从而厘定出不同风险区域的纯保费。结果表明:无风险区域、低风险区域、中风险区域和高风险区域的单位纯保费合计分别为:1 718.33元、4 667.14元、7 578.624 5元、9 862.595元。文章从定量的角度分析缓解人象冲突的可行性措施,其研究方法和研究成果在西双版纳人象冲突肇事保费厘定上提供了较强的参考价值。
Frequent occurrence of human-elephant conflict has caused a great troublesome to the local government and villagers. In this paper, loss compensation data caused by human-elephant conflicts in Xishuangbanna from 2011 to 2016 are collected and the loss distribution is then analyzed by the package "fitdistrplus" of RStudio software. According to the fitted loss distribution, insurance premium is then calculated. Results show that the premiums in the risk-free, lowrisk, middle-risk, and high-risk areas are 1 718.33 CNY, 4 667.14 CNY, 7 578.62 CNY, and 9 862.59 CNY, respectively. According to this paper, the risk of human-elephant conflict is quantified and a reasonable risk management approach is proposed. The methodology and results can be applied for calculate the premium of human-elephant conflict insurance.
Frequent occurrence of human-elephant conflict has caused a great troublesome to the local government and villagers. In this paper, loss compensation data caused by human-elephant conflicts in Xishuangbanna from 2011 to 2016 are collected and the loss distribution is then analyzed by the package "fitdistrplus" of RStudio software. According to the fitted loss distribution, insurance premium is then calculated. Results show that the premiums in the risk-free, lowrisk, middle-risk, and high-risk areas are 1 718.33 CNY, 4 667.14 CNY, 7 578.62 CNY, and 9 862.59 CNY, respectively. According to this paper, the risk of human-elephant conflict is quantified and a reasonable risk management approach is proposed. The methodology and results can be applied for calculate the premium of human-elephant conflict insurance.
引文
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[24]孟生旺,袁卫.汽车保险的精算模型及其应用[J].数理统计与管理,2001(3):60-65.
[25]孟生旺.交强险的经营结果和费率结构分析[J].统计研究,2008(4):66-71.
[26]王晓军,孟生旺.保险精算学[M].北京:人民大学出版社,2006.
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[30]郭贤明,何謦成,王兰新,等.西双版纳亚洲象食物源基地对缓解人象冲突的效应[J].生态学杂志,2012(12):3133-3137.
[2]杨正斌,陈明勇,董永华,等.西双版纳国家级自然保护区勐养子保护区亚洲象生境现状分析[J].林业调查规划,2006(3):49-52.
[3]刘林云,杨士剑,陈明勇,等.西双版纳野生动物对农作物的危害及防范措施[J].林业调查规划,2006(S2):33-35.
[4]陈明勇,吴兆录,董永华.中国亚洲象研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2006.
[5]He Q C,Wu Z L,Zhou W,et al.Perception and attitudes of local communities towards wild elephant-related problems and conservation in Xishuangbanna,Southwestern China[J].Chinese Geographical Science,2011,21(5):629-636.
[6]张立.中国亚洲象现状及研究进展[J].生物学通报,2006(11):1-3.
[7]胡忠军,于长青,徐宏发,等.道路对陆栖野生动物的生态学影响[J].生态学杂志,2005(4):433-437.
[8]林柳,冯利民,赵建伟,等.在西双版纳国家级自然保护区用3S技术规划亚洲象生态走廊带初探[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2006(4):405-409.
[9]陈明勇.中国亚洲象保护廊道研究[M].昆明:云南科学技术出版社,2010.
[10]文絮.保费由哪些构成[J].金融博览,1999(8):15-15.
[11]任婧,张节松.基于POT模型的巨灾损失分布拟合及风险度量[J].科技与管理,2015(1):75-80.
[12]郝军章.基于巨灾风险度量的保险模式研究[D].北京:北方工业大学,2015.
[13]于陶,刘汉龙,王笃波,等.资本资产定价模型在工程地震保险费率厘定中的应用[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2012(3):130-135.
[14]Kaas R,Goovaerts M J,Dhaene J,et al.Modern actuarial risk theory:Using R[M].Germany:Springer Verlag,2008.
[15]Klugman S A,Panjer H H,Willmot G E.Loss models:From data to decisions[M].New Jersey:John Wiley&Sons Inc,2008.
[16]吴兆录.西双版纳国家级自然保护区管理成效评价[M].北京:科学出版社,2008.
[17]何謦成,吴兆录.我国野生动物肇事的现状及其管理研究进展[J].四川动物,2010(1):141-143.
[18]Sukumar R.A brief review of the status,distribution and biology of wild Asian elephant[J].International Zoo Yearbook,2010,40(1):1-8.
[19]李雯雯.西双版纳人象冲突风险评估研究[D].昆明:云南财经大学,2017.
[20]王斌,李雯雯,许利剑,等.西双版纳自然保护区勐养子保护区亚洲象肇事特点及损失情况分析[J].林业调查规划,2017(1):118-123.
[21]McNeil A J,Frey R,Embrechts P.Quantitative risk management[M].Princeton:Princeton University Press,2005.
[22]孟生旺.风险模型:基于R语言[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2017.
[23]孟生旺,滕帆.中国寿险业利率风险的实证分析及其情景测试[J].当代经济科学,2002(3):62-65.
[24]孟生旺,袁卫.汽车保险的精算模型及其应用[J].数理统计与管理,2001(3):60-65.
[25]孟生旺.交强险的经营结果和费率结构分析[J].统计研究,2008(4):66-71.
[26]王晓军,孟生旺.保险精算学[M].北京:人民大学出版社,2006.
[27]Dobson A J,Barbnett A G.An introduction to generalized linear models[M].Florida:CRC Press,2008.
[28]de Jong P,Heller G Z.Generalized linear models for insurance data[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2008.
[29]Ohlsson E,Johansson B.Non-life insurance pricing with generalized linear models[M].Germany:Springer Verlag,2010.
[30]郭贤明,何謦成,王兰新,等.西双版纳亚洲象食物源基地对缓解人象冲突的效应[J].生态学杂志,2012(12):3133-3137.