中国战略性金属矿产供应安全程度评价
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摘要
战略性金属矿产是国家经济社会发展的基础,因此评价战略性金属矿产的供应安全程度具有重要意义。目前对战略性金属矿产供应安全程度的评价并无统一标准。本文从国内供应安全程度和进口供应安全程度两个维度对中国战略性金属矿产的供应安全程度进行评价,分析1994—2016年我国13种战略性金属矿产面临的供应安全问题与可能的保障措施。国内供应安全程度评价以矿产资源的经济可采储量为基础,计算静态保障年限和相对储量指数作为主要指标;进口供应安全程度评价采用对外依存度和来源集中度作为主要评价指标。结果表明:1)铬、铁、钴、镍矿石的国内供应紧缺,同时进口供应安全程度偏差,其供应安全程度差,需重点关注;2)锡矿石的国内供应充足,但是近年来进口供应安全程度趋于下降,其供应安全程度偏差;3)铝、铜、锆、金矿石的国内供应紧缺,但进口供应安全程度偏好,其供应安全程度偏好;4)钼、锑、钨、稀土矿石的国内供应充足,且进口供应安全程度偏好,其供应安全程度好。建议中国限制战略性金属矿产的出口,鼓励进口,寻求国际合作;加大对国内矿产资源的勘探力度,加大对矿产开采及产品加工的技术投入,生产高附加值的产品,同时提高各环节的金属回收效率;均衡从各国进口战略性矿产的比例。本文采用的分析方法适用于对更多材料的研究,可为国家评价战略性金属种类和供应安全程度提供依据。
Strategic metallic ores are very important to economic development. China's demand to and dependence on metal minerals keep increasing due to its rapid urbanization and industrialization in the last 2-3 decades. Import is an important source of mineral resources for a country. Identifying and evaluating the effect of strategic ores is of great practical significance to ensure their supply security. However, there is no standard method to evaluate the significance of strategic minerals so far. To analyze the supply security challenges and protective measures of the strategic metal ores, this paper evaluates the supply security of 13 strategic metal minerals between 1994 and 2016 in China from two dimensions: the degree of domestic supply security and the degree of supply security for imported resources. The degree of domestic supply security is an index to combine the estimated depletion time and the relative mineral scarcity index based on economic mineable reserves. The degree of supply security for imported resources is an index that is used for evaluating the import safety degree of mineral ores by combing net import reliance and market concentration. Results showed that: 1) the supply security is poor for Cr, Fe, Co and Ni ores. These ores should be paid more attention because the domestic supply of these ores are in short, while the degree of supply security are also poor; 2) the supply security is relatively poor for Sn ores. The domestic supply of this ore is relatively abundant but the degree of supply security has been declining in recent years; 3) the supply security is relatively good for Al, Cu, Zr and Au ores. The domestic supply of these ores are in short but the degree of supply security is relatively good; 4) the supply security is good for Mo, Sb, W and REE ores. The domestic supply of these ores are relatively abundant and the degree of supply security scarcity is relatively good. This paper presents suggestions on limiting export of strategic metallic ores, encouraging import, looking for global cooperation, boosting internal exploration, increasing inputs on mining and processing technologies, producing high added-value products, improving recycling recovery at each steps, and balancing import sources. This method also applies to other materials, which can provide references for China to evaluate supply security of strategic metallic ores.
Strategic metallic ores are very important to economic development. China's demand to and dependence on metal minerals keep increasing due to its rapid urbanization and industrialization in the last 2-3 decades. Import is an important source of mineral resources for a country. Identifying and evaluating the effect of strategic ores is of great practical significance to ensure their supply security. However, there is no standard method to evaluate the significance of strategic minerals so far. To analyze the supply security challenges and protective measures of the strategic metal ores, this paper evaluates the supply security of 13 strategic metal minerals between 1994 and 2016 in China from two dimensions: the degree of domestic supply security and the degree of supply security for imported resources. The degree of domestic supply security is an index to combine the estimated depletion time and the relative mineral scarcity index based on economic mineable reserves. The degree of supply security for imported resources is an index that is used for evaluating the import safety degree of mineral ores by combing net import reliance and market concentration. Results showed that: 1) the supply security is poor for Cr, Fe, Co and Ni ores. These ores should be paid more attention because the domestic supply of these ores are in short, while the degree of supply security are also poor; 2) the supply security is relatively poor for Sn ores. The domestic supply of this ore is relatively abundant but the degree of supply security has been declining in recent years; 3) the supply security is relatively good for Al, Cu, Zr and Au ores. The domestic supply of these ores are in short but the degree of supply security is relatively good; 4) the supply security is good for Mo, Sb, W and REE ores. The domestic supply of these ores are relatively abundant and the degree of supply security scarcity is relatively good. This paper presents suggestions on limiting export of strategic metallic ores, encouraging import, looking for global cooperation, boosting internal exploration, increasing inputs on mining and processing technologies, producing high added-value products, improving recycling recovery at each steps, and balancing import sources. This method also applies to other materials, which can provide references for China to evaluate supply security of strategic metallic ores.
引文
陈琳,陈云,2012.矿产资源海外投资的国际经验借鉴及我国的战略选择[J].战略决策研究,3(1):81- 88.
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陈喜峰,叶锦华,陈秀法,2014.日本海外矿产资源开发模式及对我国的启示[J].资源与产业,16(3):17- 24.
迟春洁,黎永亮,2004.能源安全影响因素及测度指标体系的初步研究[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报:社会科学版,6(4):80- 84.
高丽,王毅,沈镭,等,2014.基于PSR概念模型的稀土资源安全评价[J].武汉理工大学学报:社会科学版 (6):990- 994.
郭金栋,王恩元,2010.煤炭能源安全测度指标体系与综合评价[J].中国安全科学学报,20(11):112- 118.
郭晓茜,李建武,2017.国外研究机构关键矿产评价方法综述[J].中国矿业,26(9):25- 32.
颉茂华,杨彩霞,2017.基于PSR模型的中国稀土安全评价[J].资源与产业,19(1):55- 65.
李宪海,王丹,吴尚昆,2014.我国战略性矿产资源评价指标选择:基于美国、欧盟等关键矿产名录的思考[J].中国矿业,23(4):30- 33.
李小亮,陈彦玲,董正信,2008.基于PSR框架的我国石油安全评价[J].北京石油化工学院学报,16(1):62- 66.
林丰,2017.中国铟矿资源安全评估 [D].北京:中国地质大学.
世界银行,2017.人口总数[EB/OL].(2017- 05- 25)[2018- 06- 20].https://data.worldbank.org.cn/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?end=2016&locations=CN- 1W&start=1991&view=chart.
王东方,陈伟强,2018.中国铝土矿贸易与供应安全研究[J].资源科学,40(3):498- 506.
严筱,陈莲芳,严良,等,2016.基于PSR模型的我国重要矿产资源安全评价[J].中国矿业,25(1):43- 49.
杨欣,郑明贵,文唯,等,2016.战略性矿产资源经济安全评价研究与应用:以我国铜矿资源为例[J].江西理工大学学报,37(6):33- 40.
姚建,吴爱祥,唐龙海,等,2014.基于长短期矿产资源安全评价指标体系的构建[J].现代矿业,30(2):93- 95.
赵洋,2011.基于PSR概念模型的我国战略性矿产资源安全评价 [D].北京:中国地质大学.
中华人民共和国国家统计局,2016.国家数据[EB/OL].(2016- 08- 10)[2018- 05- 20].http://data.stats.gov.cn/easyquery.htm?cn=C01&zb=A0C01&sj=2016%EF%BC%89%EF%BC%9B14.
中华人民共和国海关总署,2017.中国海关统计年鉴2017[R].北京:中华人民共和国海关总署.
中国有色金属工业协会,2017.中国有色金属统计年鉴2017[R].北京:中国有色金属工业协会.
BUSTAMANTE M,GAUSTAD G,ALONSO E,2018.Comparative analysis of supply risk mitigation strategies for critical byproduct minerals:a case study of tellurium[J].Environmental Science & Technology,52(1):11- 21.
CARLTON D W,2010.Revising the horizontal merger guidelines[J].Journal of Competition Law and Economics,6(3):619- 652.
EUROPEAN COMMISSION,2011.Communication on raw materials,2011[EB/OL].(2011- 12- 15)[2018- 02- 25].http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52011DC0025.
ERDMANN L,GRAEDEL T E,2011.Criticality of non-fuel minerals:a review of major approaches and analyses[J].Environmental Science & Technology,45(18):7620- 7630.
EMECHU E D,HELBIG C,SONNEMANN G,et al,2016.Import-based Indicator for the geopolitical supply risk of raw materials in life cycle sustainability assessments[J].Journal of Industrial Ecology,20(1):154- 165.
GOE M,GAUSTAD G,2014.Identifying critical materials for photovoltaics in the US:a multi-metric approach[J].Applied Energy,123(7):387- 396.
GRAEDEL T E,BARR R,CHANDLER C,et al,2012.Methodology of metal criticality determination[J].Environmental Science & Technology,46(2):1063- 1070.
GRAEDEL T E,HARPER E M,NASSAR N T,et al,2015.Criticality of metals and metalloids[J].Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A,112(14):4257- 4262.
HABIB K,HAMELIN L,WENZEL H,2016.A dynamic perspective of the geopolitical supply risk of metals[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,133:850- 858.
HABIB K,WENZEL H,2015.Reviewing resource criticality assessment from a dynamic and technology specific perspective:using the case of direct- drive wind turbines[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,112(5):3852- 3863.
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY,TRADE AND INDUSTRY OF JAPAN,2009.Strategy for Ensuring Stable Supplies of Rare Metals [EB/OL].(2009- 07- 28)[2018- 01- 10].http://www.meti.go.jp/english/press/data/20090728_01.html.
NASSAR N T,BARR R,BROWNING M,et al,2012.Criticality of the geological copper family[J].Environmental Science & Technology,46(2):1071- 1078.
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL (US),2008.Minerals,critical minerals and the US economy[M].Washington:National Academies Press.
OAKEDENE H,2008.Material security:ensuring resource availability to the UK economy [EB/OL].(2008- 03- 15)[2018- 01- 11].http://www.oakdenehollins.com/pdf/material_security.pdf.
OKO-INSTITUT ,2009.Critical metals for sustainable technologies and their recycling potential [EB/OL].(2009- 12- 09)[2018- 05- 16].https://www.oeko.de/oekodoc/1070/2009- 129- en.pdf.
POULIZAC C M F,2013.Modeling mining economics and materials markets to inform criticality assessment and mitigation[D].Cambridge:Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
ROELICH K,DAWSON D A,PURNELL P,et al,2014.Assessing the dynamic material criticality of infrastructure transitions:a case of low carbon electricity[J].Applied Energy,123(12):378- 386.
SIMON B,WEIL S Z M,2014.Criticality of metals for electrochemical energy storage systems:development towards a technology specific indicator[J].Revue De Métallurgie,111(2):191- 200.
UN DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL AFFAIRS ,2017.UN comtrade database [EB/OL].(2016-08-10)[2017- 12- 28].https://comtrade.un.org/data/.
USGS,2017.Mineral commodity summaries[EB/OL].(2017- 03- 15)[2017- 12- 20].https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/mcs/2017/mcs2017.pdf.
U.S.DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY,2010.Critical materials strategy[EB/OL].(2010- 12- 20)[2017- 02- 25].https://www.energy.gov/policy/downloads/2010-critical-materials-strategy.
U.S.DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE,2010.Horizontal merger guidelines [EB/OL].(2010- 08- 19)[2017- 12- 20].https://www.justice.gov/atr/horizontal-merger-guidelines-08192010.
U.S.DEPARTMENT OF LABOR,2017.U.S.Bureau of labor statistics[EB/OL].(2017- 08- 10)[2018- 03- 10].https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?mu.
WANG C ,ZUO L S,HU P J ,et al,2013.Evaluation and simulation analysis of China's copper security evolution trajectory[J].Transactions of Nonferrous Metals Society of China,23(8):2465- 2474.
陈其慎,王高尚,2007.我国非能源战略性矿产的界定及其重要性评价[J].中国国土资源经济,20(1):18- 21.
陈喜峰,叶锦华,陈秀法,2014.日本海外矿产资源开发模式及对我国的启示[J].资源与产业,16(3):17- 24.
迟春洁,黎永亮,2004.能源安全影响因素及测度指标体系的初步研究[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报:社会科学版,6(4):80- 84.
高丽,王毅,沈镭,等,2014.基于PSR概念模型的稀土资源安全评价[J].武汉理工大学学报:社会科学版 (6):990- 994.
郭金栋,王恩元,2010.煤炭能源安全测度指标体系与综合评价[J].中国安全科学学报,20(11):112- 118.
郭晓茜,李建武,2017.国外研究机构关键矿产评价方法综述[J].中国矿业,26(9):25- 32.
颉茂华,杨彩霞,2017.基于PSR模型的中国稀土安全评价[J].资源与产业,19(1):55- 65.
李宪海,王丹,吴尚昆,2014.我国战略性矿产资源评价指标选择:基于美国、欧盟等关键矿产名录的思考[J].中国矿业,23(4):30- 33.
李小亮,陈彦玲,董正信,2008.基于PSR框架的我国石油安全评价[J].北京石油化工学院学报,16(1):62- 66.
林丰,2017.中国铟矿资源安全评估 [D].北京:中国地质大学.
世界银行,2017.人口总数[EB/OL].(2017- 05- 25)[2018- 06- 20].https://data.worldbank.org.cn/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?end=2016&locations=CN- 1W&start=1991&view=chart.
王东方,陈伟强,2018.中国铝土矿贸易与供应安全研究[J].资源科学,40(3):498- 506.
严筱,陈莲芳,严良,等,2016.基于PSR模型的我国重要矿产资源安全评价[J].中国矿业,25(1):43- 49.
杨欣,郑明贵,文唯,等,2016.战略性矿产资源经济安全评价研究与应用:以我国铜矿资源为例[J].江西理工大学学报,37(6):33- 40.
姚建,吴爱祥,唐龙海,等,2014.基于长短期矿产资源安全评价指标体系的构建[J].现代矿业,30(2):93- 95.
赵洋,2011.基于PSR概念模型的我国战略性矿产资源安全评价 [D].北京:中国地质大学.
中华人民共和国国家统计局,2016.国家数据[EB/OL].(2016- 08- 10)[2018- 05- 20].http://data.stats.gov.cn/easyquery.htm?cn=C01&zb=A0C01&sj=2016%EF%BC%89%EF%BC%9B14.
中华人民共和国海关总署,2017.中国海关统计年鉴2017[R].北京:中华人民共和国海关总署.
中国有色金属工业协会,2017.中国有色金属统计年鉴2017[R].北京:中国有色金属工业协会.
BUSTAMANTE M,GAUSTAD G,ALONSO E,2018.Comparative analysis of supply risk mitigation strategies for critical byproduct minerals:a case study of tellurium[J].Environmental Science & Technology,52(1):11- 21.
CARLTON D W,2010.Revising the horizontal merger guidelines[J].Journal of Competition Law and Economics,6(3):619- 652.
EUROPEAN COMMISSION,2011.Communication on raw materials,2011[EB/OL].(2011- 12- 15)[2018- 02- 25].http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52011DC0025.
ERDMANN L,GRAEDEL T E,2011.Criticality of non-fuel minerals:a review of major approaches and analyses[J].Environmental Science & Technology,45(18):7620- 7630.
EMECHU E D,HELBIG C,SONNEMANN G,et al,2016.Import-based Indicator for the geopolitical supply risk of raw materials in life cycle sustainability assessments[J].Journal of Industrial Ecology,20(1):154- 165.
GOE M,GAUSTAD G,2014.Identifying critical materials for photovoltaics in the US:a multi-metric approach[J].Applied Energy,123(7):387- 396.
GRAEDEL T E,BARR R,CHANDLER C,et al,2012.Methodology of metal criticality determination[J].Environmental Science & Technology,46(2):1063- 1070.
GRAEDEL T E,HARPER E M,NASSAR N T,et al,2015.Criticality of metals and metalloids[J].Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A,112(14):4257- 4262.
HABIB K,HAMELIN L,WENZEL H,2016.A dynamic perspective of the geopolitical supply risk of metals[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,133:850- 858.
HABIB K,WENZEL H,2015.Reviewing resource criticality assessment from a dynamic and technology specific perspective:using the case of direct- drive wind turbines[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,112(5):3852- 3863.
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY,TRADE AND INDUSTRY OF JAPAN,2009.Strategy for Ensuring Stable Supplies of Rare Metals [EB/OL].(2009- 07- 28)[2018- 01- 10].http://www.meti.go.jp/english/press/data/20090728_01.html.
NASSAR N T,BARR R,BROWNING M,et al,2012.Criticality of the geological copper family[J].Environmental Science & Technology,46(2):1071- 1078.
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL (US),2008.Minerals,critical minerals and the US economy[M].Washington:National Academies Press.
OAKEDENE H,2008.Material security:ensuring resource availability to the UK economy [EB/OL].(2008- 03- 15)[2018- 01- 11].http://www.oakdenehollins.com/pdf/material_security.pdf.
OKO-INSTITUT ,2009.Critical metals for sustainable technologies and their recycling potential [EB/OL].(2009- 12- 09)[2018- 05- 16].https://www.oeko.de/oekodoc/1070/2009- 129- en.pdf.
POULIZAC C M F,2013.Modeling mining economics and materials markets to inform criticality assessment and mitigation[D].Cambridge:Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
ROELICH K,DAWSON D A,PURNELL P,et al,2014.Assessing the dynamic material criticality of infrastructure transitions:a case of low carbon electricity[J].Applied Energy,123(12):378- 386.
SIMON B,WEIL S Z M,2014.Criticality of metals for electrochemical energy storage systems:development towards a technology specific indicator[J].Revue De Métallurgie,111(2):191- 200.
UN DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL AFFAIRS ,2017.UN comtrade database [EB/OL].(2016-08-10)[2017- 12- 28].https://comtrade.un.org/data/.
USGS,2017.Mineral commodity summaries[EB/OL].(2017- 03- 15)[2017- 12- 20].https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/mcs/2017/mcs2017.pdf.
U.S.DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY,2010.Critical materials strategy[EB/OL].(2010- 12- 20)[2017- 02- 25].https://www.energy.gov/policy/downloads/2010-critical-materials-strategy.
U.S.DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE,2010.Horizontal merger guidelines [EB/OL].(2010- 08- 19)[2017- 12- 20].https://www.justice.gov/atr/horizontal-merger-guidelines-08192010.
U.S.DEPARTMENT OF LABOR,2017.U.S.Bureau of labor statistics[EB/OL].(2017- 08- 10)[2018- 03- 10].https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?mu.
WANG C ,ZUO L S,HU P J ,et al,2013.Evaluation and simulation analysis of China's copper security evolution trajectory[J].Transactions of Nonferrous Metals Society of China,23(8):2465- 2474.
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