某院产科门诊及出院人数的季节趋势预测
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摘要
目的验证依据预测模型季节变动规律和预测值预测某院产科门诊就医人数和出院人数的可行性,为医院管理和决策提供参考依据。方法收集2013年-2017年产科门诊量和出院人数,采用移动平均季节指数法进行分析,采用Spass19.9对数据做趋势检验,并在此基础上对2018年各季度门诊量和出院人数做出预测。结果除了2015年门诊量及出院人数有下降外,产科门诊量和出院人数均呈逐年增长趋势。门诊量最低的季节是1季度,季节比率为97.13%,最高是3季度,季节比率为102.02%。出院人数最低是1季度,季节比率为94.17%,最高是2季度,季节比率为106.13%。预测2018年产科门诊4个季度的预测值及预测范围依次是43 461(33 647～53 275)人次、45 429(35 615～55 243)人次、46 529(36 715～56 343)人次、46 167(36 353～55 981)人次。产科出院人数预测值及预测范围依次是4581(2650～6512)人次、5183(3532～7114)人次、4951(3020～6882)人次、4860(2748～6291)人次。结论产科门诊量和出院人数呈逐年增加的趋势,且具有季节性变化特点。医院的产科医疗工作可依据季节变动规律和预测值,制定科学合理的年度、月度工作计划,及时做好医疗资源的储备,更好地为临床工作提供指导。
Objectives The purpose of this paper was trying to find the varying pattern of the number of patients visiting in and discharged from the obstetric outpatient department of a hospital specific in obstetrics and gynecology with years and seasons, through analyzing of these two parameters within a past period of five years, in order to provide a basic reference for management and decision making of the hospital.Methods At first, the data of number of patients visiting in and discharged from the hospital department in every season in the years of 2013 to 2017 were collected, and then analyzed the data collected by using the method of moving average seasonal index method, and the trend test was made by using Spass19.9 further. And based on the analysis, the potential outpatient volume and expected discharged patient number in the four seasons of 2018 have been predicted. Results Generally looking, the number of patients either visiting in, or discharged from the hospital department have shown an increased trend with years, but 2015 was an only exception, in which the both,the visit and the discharged patients were declined in some extent. Within a year, the minimum and maximum of patient volume of the department appeared in the first and the third seasons with the season ratio of 97.13% and 102.02% respectively. For the discharged patients, the lowest number happened in the first season of every year, with season ration of 94.17% also, but the highest was in the second seasons in every year with season ration of 106.13%. On the ground of the analysis and finding as described in this paper, the following expectations for upcoming 2018 could been provided: The patients vising in the hospital department would reach up to 43461(33647～53275) in the first season,45429(35615～55243) in the second season,46529(36715～56343) in the third season, and 46167(36353～55981) in the fourth season in person-time as the measuring unit respectively.And the patients going out of the hospital department--listed in order of the seasons in a year--would be 4581(2650～6512), 5183(3532～7114), 4951(3020～6882),and 4860(2748～6291) in person-time respectively. Conclusions The analysis showed that the number of patients visiting in and discharged from hospital obstetric outpatient department was rising with the years, and varying with the the seasons in a year. The department of the hospital was recommended to prepare its yearly and monthly service planning, allocate medical resources necessary on time in order to efficiently support and instruction of the clinic activities of the department on the basis of the analysis and prediction given in this paper.
Objectives The purpose of this paper was trying to find the varying pattern of the number of patients visiting in and discharged from the obstetric outpatient department of a hospital specific in obstetrics and gynecology with years and seasons, through analyzing of these two parameters within a past period of five years, in order to provide a basic reference for management and decision making of the hospital.Methods At first, the data of number of patients visiting in and discharged from the hospital department in every season in the years of 2013 to 2017 were collected, and then analyzed the data collected by using the method of moving average seasonal index method, and the trend test was made by using Spass19.9 further. And based on the analysis, the potential outpatient volume and expected discharged patient number in the four seasons of 2018 have been predicted. Results Generally looking, the number of patients either visiting in, or discharged from the hospital department have shown an increased trend with years, but 2015 was an only exception, in which the both,the visit and the discharged patients were declined in some extent. Within a year, the minimum and maximum of patient volume of the department appeared in the first and the third seasons with the season ratio of 97.13% and 102.02% respectively. For the discharged patients, the lowest number happened in the first season of every year, with season ration of 94.17% also, but the highest was in the second seasons in every year with season ration of 106.13%. On the ground of the analysis and finding as described in this paper, the following expectations for upcoming 2018 could been provided: The patients vising in the hospital department would reach up to 43461(33647～53275) in the first season,45429(35615～55243) in the second season,46529(36715～56343) in the third season, and 46167(36353～55981) in the fourth season in person-time as the measuring unit respectively.And the patients going out of the hospital department--listed in order of the seasons in a year--would be 4581(2650～6512), 5183(3532～7114), 4951(3020～6882),and 4860(2748～6291) in person-time respectively. Conclusions The analysis showed that the number of patients visiting in and discharged from hospital obstetric outpatient department was rising with the years, and varying with the the seasons in a year. The department of the hospital was recommended to prepare its yearly and monthly service planning, allocate medical resources necessary on time in order to efficiently support and instruction of the clinic activities of the department on the basis of the analysis and prediction given in this paper.
引文
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[6]张宇婓,申思,盖小荣,等.北京市某大型综合医院门诊量变化动态分析及预测[J].中国卫生统计,2015,35(4):590-592.
[7]赵萌萌,刘洋,石锋,等.某院2010~2015年门诊量变化动态分析[J].中国卫生统计,2016,33(6):1005-1007.
[2]毛以成,黄利娟,查君静,等.移动平均季节指数法分析及预测医院门诊量和出院人数[J],中国病案,2015,16(11)47-49.
[3]于洪江,柳国洪,孙爱峰,等.时间序列资料季节变动分析方法的比较[J].中国卫生统计,2011.28(5):599-601.
[4]刘银华.北京市某区级妇幼保健院2006年-2015年门诊量变化趋势分析[J].中国病案,2016,17(6):64-66.
[5]严茂春,邓蓉.应用季节变动分析法对某院门急诊人次数进行测定[J].中国医院统计,2012,19(4):286-288.
[6]张宇婓,申思,盖小荣,等.北京市某大型综合医院门诊量变化动态分析及预测[J].中国卫生统计,2015,35(4):590-592.
[7]赵萌萌,刘洋,石锋,等.某院2010~2015年门诊量变化动态分析[J].中国卫生统计,2016,33(6):1005-1007.