两类El Niňo事件次年夏季长江-黄河流域降水低频特征及低频水汽输送途径差异
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摘要
利用1961年1月—2014年12月Hadley气候预测研究中心的全球海表温度(SST)资料,NECP/NCAR逐日风场、比湿等再分析资料,国家气象信息中心提供的中国753站逐日降水、160站逐月降水资料,对比分析了东部(EP)型和中部(CP)型两类El Niňo事件次年夏季长江-黄河流域降水(简记为EP型和CP型降水)低频特征,以及与之相关的低频水汽输送差异。结果表明,1)平均而言,EP型降水主要有10～20 d(最显著)以及20～30 d(次显著)低频周期;CP型降水主要有10～20 d的低频显著周期。与之相关的纬、经向水汽通量最显著低频周期也为10～20 d。2)影响EP、CP型低频降水共同的低频水汽环流系统主要有:菲律宾群岛附近的异常反气旋式水汽环流和渤海湾附近(日本东南侧)的异常气旋式(反气旋式)水汽环流。另外,影响EP(CP)型低频降水的还有来自巴尔喀什湖东北部异常气旋式水汽环流(孟加拉湾、苏门答腊岛以西的异常气旋式水汽环流对和贝加尔湖西、东两侧的异常气旋式、反气旋式环流)。3)EP型降水暖湿水汽主要源自南海,冷湿水汽主要源自西北太平洋,冷空气来自巴尔喀什湖东北部和贝加尔湖西北侧。CP型降水暖湿水汽少量来自阿拉伯海和印度洋,大量来自热带西太平洋,冷空气主要来自贝加尔湖西北侧。
Using the global monthly sea surface temperature( SST) from the Hadley Climate Prediction and Research Center,NCEP/NCAR daily w ind field and specific humidity,and 753-station daily precipitation and 160-station monthly precipitation data from the National M eteorological Information Center,the differences in the low-frequency characteristics of the precipitation and its related moisture transport paths in the Yangtze River-Yellow River Basin in the follow ing summer of eastern Pacific( EP) and central Pacific( CP) type El Niňo events are analyzed.For the sake of clarity,precipitation is distinguished as EP-type and CP-type precipitation. The results reveal the follow ing: 1) For EP-and CP-type precipitation,the most significant frequency oscillation period is 10—20 d,follow ed by 20—30 d,w hile the w eakest is 30—60 d.For the typical 7-year average time series of precipitation,the most significant is 10—20 d,follow ed by the 20—30 d low-frequency oscillation period for EP-type precipitation,yet for CP precipitation there is only 10—20 d significant low-frequency oscillation period.2) The zonal and meridional vapor flux are of significant 10—20 d,20—30 d and 30—60 d low-frequency oscillation periods,among w hich 10—20 d is the most significant,and this characteristic is more obvious especially for meridional vapor flux.When comparing the tw o types of events,the significance of the 10—20 d and 20—30 d low frequency cycles are equivalent for both the EP-and the CP-type zonal w ater vapor fluxes,and the 30—60 d cycle of EPtype zonal w ater vapor flux is slightly stronger than that of the CP-type. In the meridional w ater vapor flux,the EP-type is slightly w eaker( stronger) than the CP-type in the low frequency period of 20—30 d( 30—60 d).3)The main low-frequency w ater vapor circulation systems w hich affect the low-frequency heavy precipitation over the Yangtze River-Yellow River Basin in the follow ing summer betw een the EP-and CP-type El Niňo events are different.The main and most common 10—20 d vapor circulation systems affecting both the EP-and CP-type low-frequency precipitation include the anomalous anticyclonic moisture circulation around the Philippines,the anomalous cyclonic( anticyclonic) moisture circulation to the Bohai Gulf( southeastern Sea of Japan). In addition,the10—20 d vapor circulation systems w hich affect the EP( CP) type low-frequency precipitation also include the anomalous cyclonic moisture circulation to the northeast of the Balkhash( the anomalous cyclonic moisture circulation pairs around the Bay of Bengal and to the w est of Sumatra,and the anomalous cyclonic and anticyclonic moisture circulation to the w estern and eastern sides of Lake Baikal,respectively).4) The w ater vapor sources of low-frequency strong precipitation for both the EP-and CP-type heavy precipitation in the summer of the follow ing year are also different over the Yangtze River-Yellow River Basin. Warm vapor originates from the South China Sea,cold vapor from the northw est Pacific,and cold air from the northeast of Balkhash and northeast of Lake Baikal for the EP-type precipitation.A small amount of w arm vapor originates from the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean,w hile a large amount of w arm vapor originates from the tropical Western Pacific,and cold air from the northeast to Lake Baikal for CP-type precipitation.
Using the global monthly sea surface temperature( SST) from the Hadley Climate Prediction and Research Center,NCEP/NCAR daily w ind field and specific humidity,and 753-station daily precipitation and 160-station monthly precipitation data from the National M eteorological Information Center,the differences in the low-frequency characteristics of the precipitation and its related moisture transport paths in the Yangtze River-Yellow River Basin in the follow ing summer of eastern Pacific( EP) and central Pacific( CP) type El Niňo events are analyzed.For the sake of clarity,precipitation is distinguished as EP-type and CP-type precipitation. The results reveal the follow ing: 1) For EP-and CP-type precipitation,the most significant frequency oscillation period is 10—20 d,follow ed by 20—30 d,w hile the w eakest is 30—60 d.For the typical 7-year average time series of precipitation,the most significant is 10—20 d,follow ed by the 20—30 d low-frequency oscillation period for EP-type precipitation,yet for CP precipitation there is only 10—20 d significant low-frequency oscillation period.2) The zonal and meridional vapor flux are of significant 10—20 d,20—30 d and 30—60 d low-frequency oscillation periods,among w hich 10—20 d is the most significant,and this characteristic is more obvious especially for meridional vapor flux.When comparing the tw o types of events,the significance of the 10—20 d and 20—30 d low frequency cycles are equivalent for both the EP-and the CP-type zonal w ater vapor fluxes,and the 30—60 d cycle of EPtype zonal w ater vapor flux is slightly stronger than that of the CP-type. In the meridional w ater vapor flux,the EP-type is slightly w eaker( stronger) than the CP-type in the low frequency period of 20—30 d( 30—60 d).3)The main low-frequency w ater vapor circulation systems w hich affect the low-frequency heavy precipitation over the Yangtze River-Yellow River Basin in the follow ing summer betw een the EP-and CP-type El Niňo events are different.The main and most common 10—20 d vapor circulation systems affecting both the EP-and CP-type low-frequency precipitation include the anomalous anticyclonic moisture circulation around the Philippines,the anomalous cyclonic( anticyclonic) moisture circulation to the Bohai Gulf( southeastern Sea of Japan). In addition,the10—20 d vapor circulation systems w hich affect the EP( CP) type low-frequency precipitation also include the anomalous cyclonic moisture circulation to the northeast of the Balkhash( the anomalous cyclonic moisture circulation pairs around the Bay of Bengal and to the w est of Sumatra,and the anomalous cyclonic and anticyclonic moisture circulation to the w estern and eastern sides of Lake Baikal,respectively).4) The w ater vapor sources of low-frequency strong precipitation for both the EP-and CP-type heavy precipitation in the summer of the follow ing year are also different over the Yangtze River-Yellow River Basin. Warm vapor originates from the South China Sea,cold vapor from the northw est Pacific,and cold air from the northeast of Balkhash and northeast of Lake Baikal for the EP-type precipitation.A small amount of w arm vapor originates from the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean,w hile a large amount of w arm vapor originates from the tropical Western Pacific,and cold air from the northeast to Lake Baikal for CP-type precipitation.
引文
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李丽平,许冠宇,柳艳菊,2014.2010年华南前汛期低频水汽输送对低频降水的影响[J].热带气象学报,30(3):423-431.Li L P,Xu G Y,Liu YJ,2014.Influences of low-frequency moisture transportation on low frequency precipitation anomalies in the annually first rainy season of South China in 2010[J].J Trop M eteor,30(3):423-431.(in Chinese).
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任福民,袁媛,孙丞虎,等,2012.近30年ENSO研究进展回顾[J].气象科技进展,2(3):17-24.Ren F M,Yuan Y,Sun C H,et al.,2012.Review of progress of ENSO studies in the past three decades[J].Advances in M et S&T,2(3):17-24.(in Chinese).
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陶诗言,卫捷,2007.夏季中国南方流域性致洪暴雨与季风涌的关系[J].气象,33(3):10-18.Tao S Y,Wei J,2007.Correlation between monsoon surge and heavy rainfall causing flash-flood in southern china in summer[J].M eteor M on,33(3):10-18.(in Chinese).
Weng H,Behera S K,Yamagata T,2009.Anomalous w inter climate conditions in the Pacific rim during recent El Ni1o M odoki and El Ni1o events[J].Climate Dynamics,32(5):663-674.
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Yu J Y,Kao H Y,2007.Decadal changes of ENSO persistence barrier in SST and ocean heat content indices:1958-2001[J].J Geophys Res,112(D13).
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Chen X,Li C Y,Tan Y K,2015.The influence of El Ni1o on M JO over the equatorial pacific[J].J Ocean Univ China,14(1):1-8.
范伶俐,徐峰,徐华,等,2018.春季/夏季型El Nino对中国夏季降水变化的影响[J].大气科学学报,41(6):819-828.Fan L L,Xu F,Xu H,et al.,2018.Spring and summer El Nino events and their influences on summer precipitation in China[J].Trans Atmos Sci,41(6):819-828.(in Chinese).
Gushchina D,Dew itte B,2012.Intraseasonal tropical atmospheric variability associated w ith the tw o flavors of El Ni1o[J].M on Wea Rev,140(11):3669-3681.
Hendon H H,Wheeler M C,Zhang C D,2007.Seasonal dependence of the M JO-ENSO relationship[J].J Climate,20(3):531-543.
贾燕,管兆勇,2010.江淮流域夏季降水异常与西北太平洋副热带30-60天振荡强度年际变化的联系[J].大气科学,34(4):691-702.Jia Y,Guan Z Y,2010.Associations of summertime rainfall anomalies over the Changjiang-Huaihe River Valley w ith the interannual variability of 30-60-day oscillation intensity in the northw estern Pacific[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,34(4):691-702.(in Chinese).
琚建华,孙丹,吕俊梅,2007.东亚季风涌对我国东部大尺度降水过程的影响分析[J].大气科学,31(6):1129-1139.Ju J H,Sun D,Lyu J M,2007.The Influence of the East Asian monsoon stream on the large-scale precipitation course in eastern China[J].Chin J Atmo Sci,31(6):1129-1139.(in Chinese).
琚建华,孙丹,吕俊梅,2008.东亚季风区大气季节内振荡经向与纬向传播特征分析[J].大气科学,32(3):523-529.Ju J H,Sun D,Lyu J M,2007.The relay character analysis of the zonal and longitudinal propagations of the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation in the east Asian monsoon region[J].Chin J Atmo Sci,32(3):523-529.(in Chinese).
Kao H Y,Yu J Y,2009.Contrasting Eastern-Pacific and Central-Pacific types of ENSO[J].Journal of Climate,22(3):615-632.
Kim H M,Webster P J,Curry J A,2009.Impact of shifting patterns of Pacific Ocean w arming on North Atlantic tropical cyclones[J].Science,325(5936):77-80.
Kug J S,Jin F F,An S I,2009.Tw o types of El Ni1o events:cold tongue El Ni1o and w arm pool El Ni1o[J].J Climate,22(6):1499-1515.
Larkin N K,Harrison D E,2005.On the definition of El Ni1o and associated seasonal average U.S.w eather anomalies[J].Geophys Res Lett,32(13).
李崇银,凌健,宋洁,等,2014.中国热带大气季节内振荡研究进展[J].气象学报,72(5):817-834.Li C Y,Ling J,Song J,et al.,2014.Research progress in China on the tropical atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation[J].Acta M eteorological Sinica,72(5):817-834.(in Chinese).
李丽平,白婷,2014.华南夏季多年平均降水低频特征及其与低频水汽输送关系[J].大气科学学报,37(3):323-332.Li L P,Bai T,2014.Lowfrequency characteristic of multi-year mean summer precipitation in South China and its relationships w ith low-frequency w ater vapor transport[J].Trans Atmos Sci,37(3):323-332.(in Chinese).
李丽平,罗婷,2014.西北太平洋海表温度季节内振荡与中国东部夏季季节内降水关系分析[J].大气科学学报.37(6):715-722.Li L P,Luo T,2014.Analysis on the relationship betw een the intraseasonal SST over the northw est Pacific and summer intraseasonal rainfall in eastern China[J].Trans Atmos Sci,37(6):715-722.(in Chinese).
李丽平,袁爱军,2015.热带太平洋海平面高度的年代际异常及其与中国东部夏季降水的关系[J].大气科学学报,2015,38(3):371-378.Li LP,Yuan A J,2015.The interdecadal anomaly of the tropical Pacific Sea level height and it’s relationship w ith the summer rainfall in eastern China[J].Trans Atmos Sci,38(3):371-378.(in Chinese).
李丽平,王盘兴,管兆勇,2009.热带对流和环流季内振荡强度与海表温度关系对比研究[J].大气科学,33(4):771-782.Li L P,Wang P X,Guan Z Y,2009.The comparison betw een relationships of intraseasonal oscillation intensity of tropical convection and circulation w ith sea surface temperature[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,33(4):771-782.(in Chinese).
李丽平,许冠宇,柳艳菊,2014.2010年华南前汛期低频水汽输送对低频降水的影响[J].热带气象学报,30(3):423-431.Li L P,Xu G Y,Liu YJ,2014.Influences of low-frequency moisture transportation on low frequency precipitation anomalies in the annually first rainy season of South China in 2010[J].J Trop M eteor,30(3):423-431.(in Chinese).
李丽平,宋哲,吴楠,2015.三类厄尔尼诺事件对东亚大气环流及中国东部次年夏季降水影响分析[J].大气科学学报,38(6):753-765.Li L P,Song Z,Wu N,2015.Effects of three types El Ni1o on atmospheric circulation over east Asia and follow ing summer precipitation in eastern China[J].Trans Atmos Sci,38(6):753-765.(in Chinese).
李丽平,杨春艳,孔德璇,2017.华南前汛期典型涝年低频降水特征及其与低频水汽输送的关系[J].热带气象学报,33(3):299-312.Li L P,Yang C Y,Kong D X,2017.Low-frequency rainfall characteristics of the typical flood years in the annually first rainy season of South China and their relationships w ith low-frequency moisture transportation[J].J Trop M eteor,33(3):299-312.(in Chinese).
任福民,袁媛,孙丞虎,等,2012.近30年ENSO研究进展回顾[J].气象科技进展,2(3):17-24.Ren F M,Yuan Y,Sun C H,et al.,2012.Review of progress of ENSO studies in the past three decades[J].Advances in M et S&T,2(3):17-24.(in Chinese).
Slingo J M,Row ell D P,Sperber K R,et al.,1999.On the predictability of the interannual behaviour of the M adden-Julian oscillation and its relationship w ith El Ni1o[J].Quart J Roy M eteor Soc,125(554):583-609.
Taschetto A S,Ummenhofer C C,Sen G A,et al.,2009.Effect of anomalous w arming in the central Pacific on the Australian monsoon[J].Geophys Res Lett,36(12)267-272.
陶诗言,卫捷,2007.夏季中国南方流域性致洪暴雨与季风涌的关系[J].气象,33(3):10-18.Tao S Y,Wei J,2007.Correlation between monsoon surge and heavy rainfall causing flash-flood in southern china in summer[J].M eteor M on,33(3):10-18.(in Chinese).
Weng H,Behera S K,Yamagata T,2009.Anomalous w inter climate conditions in the Pacific rim during recent El Ni1o M odoki and El Ni1o events[J].Climate Dynamics,32(5):663-674.
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