自上而下的城市能源消耗碳排放估算方法
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摘要
快速的城镇化进程带来城市碳排放的快速增长,准确的城市水平碳排放数据对于制定科学合理的碳减排政策极为关键,明确碳排放源的关键类别可以做到有的放矢和精准管控.但是目前中国碳排放数据的研究主要集中在国家?地区和省级层面,城市水平由于所需基础数据的不透明和不准确,长久以来缺乏完整的碳排放清单.为解决该问题,在以前相关研究的基础上,通过省级能源平衡表,尝试利用合理的分配指标从省级碳排放数据估算出下属城市的碳排放,构建了一套自上而下的城市能源消耗碳排放估算方法.通过与现有可获得的城市水平数据进行对比,发现估算差距均在10%以内,证明了该方法的可行性和准确性,并尝试在时间尺度进行了扩展.为获取在时间和空间上均连续的中国城市能源消耗碳排放数据提供了科学的方法和合理的思路,也能为各城市分配减排任务和城市间进行减排协商提供可靠的数据支撑.
Due to the fast process of urbanization in China recently, rapid growth of urban carbon emissions has been greatly brought about, it's generally recognized that accurate city-level carbon emission data are crucial for formulating scientific and reasonable carbon emission reduction policies. By clarifying the key categories of carbon emission sources, different kinds of carbon emissions can be targeted and precisely controlled. However, recent researches on carbon emissions were mainly concentrated at the national, regional and provincial levels, and due to the opacity and inaccuracy of the required basic data, complete carbon emission inventories for general prefecture cities have not been well compiled for a long period. To solve the problem, on the basis of previous studies, the provincial energy balance table and reasonable distribution indicators are used to estimate carbon emissions in subordinate cities from provincial carbon emissions data in our research, and a set of top-bottom urban energy consumption carbon emission estimation methods was constructed. The comparison with the publicly available city level carbon emission database showed that the estimation gap was all within 10%, which proved the feasibility and accuracy of the method. We also tried to extend the method on the time scale and provide the validation. This paper provided a scientific method and reasonable ideas for acquiring carbon emissions data of Chinese cities that were continuous in both time and space scale, and could also provide reliable data support for allocating carbon emission reduction tasks and emission reduction consultations between cities.
Due to the fast process of urbanization in China recently, rapid growth of urban carbon emissions has been greatly brought about, it's generally recognized that accurate city-level carbon emission data are crucial for formulating scientific and reasonable carbon emission reduction policies. By clarifying the key categories of carbon emission sources, different kinds of carbon emissions can be targeted and precisely controlled. However, recent researches on carbon emissions were mainly concentrated at the national, regional and provincial levels, and due to the opacity and inaccuracy of the required basic data, complete carbon emission inventories for general prefecture cities have not been well compiled for a long period. To solve the problem, on the basis of previous studies, the provincial energy balance table and reasonable distribution indicators are used to estimate carbon emissions in subordinate cities from provincial carbon emissions data in our research, and a set of top-bottom urban energy consumption carbon emission estimation methods was constructed. The comparison with the publicly available city level carbon emission database showed that the estimation gap was all within 10%, which proved the feasibility and accuracy of the method. We also tried to extend the method on the time scale and provide the validation. This paper provided a scientific method and reasonable ideas for acquiring carbon emissions data of Chinese cities that were continuous in both time and space scale, and could also provide reliable data support for allocating carbon emission reduction tasks and emission reduction consultations between cities.
引文
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[24]孙振清,汪国军,陈亚男.基于能源平衡表的碳排放清单核算不确定性分析[J].生态经济,2015,31(7):33-38.Sun Z Q,Wang G J,Chen Y N.Analysis on the uncertainty of carbon emission accounting based on energy balance sheet[J].Ecological Economy,2015,31(7):33-38.
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[27]Zheng H,Shan Y,Mi Z,et al.How modifications of China’s energy data affect carbon mitigation targets[J].Energy Policy 2018,116:337-343.
[28]范建双,周琳.中国城乡居民生活消费碳排放变化的比较研究[J].中国环境科学,2018,38(11):4369-4383.Fan J S,Zhou L.A comparative study on the changes of residential living consumption carbon emissions in urban and rural China[J].China Environmental Science,2018,38(11):4369-4383.
[29]朱婧,刘学敏.能源活动碳排放核算与减排政策选择[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(7):70-75.Zhu J,Liu X M.Accounting and reduction policy on carbon emission from energy activities[J].China Population,Resource and Environment,2016,26(7):70-75.
[30]王金南,蔡博峰,曹东,等.中国10km二氧化碳排放网格及空间特征分析[J].中国环境科学,2014,34(1):1-6.Wang J N,Cai B F,Cao D.China 10km carbon dioxide emissions grid dataset and spatial characteristic analysis[J].China Environmental Science,2014,34(1):1-6.
[31]Xu X W H,Huo H,Liu J R,et al.Patterns of CO_2 emissions in18central Chinese cities from 2000 to 2014[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2018,172:529-540.
[32]Zheng B,Zhang Q,Davis SJ,et al.Infrastructure Shapes Differences in the Carbon Intensities of Chinese Cities[J].Environmental science&technology,2018,52(10):6032-6041.
[33]白卫国,庄贵阳,朱守先,等.中国城市温室气体清单核算研究--以广元市为例[J].城市问题,2013,(8):13-18.Bai W G,Zhuang G Y,Zhu S X,et al.Study on greenhouse gas inventory accounting in Chinese cities-a case study of Guangyuan[J].Urban Problems,2013(8):13-18.
[2]Shan Y L,Guan D B,Zheng H,et al.China CO_2 emission accounts1997-2015[J].Scientific data,2018,5:170201.
[3]Wang Y,Zhao T.Impacts of urbanization-related factors on CO_2emissions:Evidence from China’s three regions with varied urbanization levels[J].Atmospheric Pollution Research,2018,9(1):15-26.
[4]Chen Q L,Cai B F,Dhakal S,et al.CO_2 emission data for Chinese cities.Resources,Conservation and Recycling,2017,126:198-208.
[5]NDRC.The 12th five-year plan for energy development.http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/20132001/2023/content_2318554.htm[EB/OL],2013.
[6]Guan D B,Liu Z,Geng Y,et al.The gigatonne gap in China’s carbon dioxide inventories[J].Nature Climate Change,2012,2(9):672-675.
[7]Kholod N,Evans M,Gusev E,et al.A methodology for calculating transport emissions in cities with limited traffic data:Case study of diesel particulates and black carbon emissions in Murmansk[J].The Science of the total environment,2016,547:305-313.
[8]Liu Z,Guan D B,Wei W,et al.Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China[J].Nature,2015,524,335.
[9]Shan Y L,Guan D B,Liu J H,et al.Methodology and applications of city level CO_2emission accounts in China[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,161:1215-1225.
[10]ICLEI C40I,Global Protocol for Community-scale GHG Emissions,Version0.9,http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download;jsessionid=642B39A11A90D983E609DCF366423F19?doi=10.1.1.230.6822&rep=re&type=pdf[EB/OL],2012.
[11]UNEP,International Standard for Determining Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Cities,VERSION 2.1,UN-HABITAT World Bank,2010.
[12]Bi J,Zhang R R,Wang H K,et al.The benchmarks of carbon emissions and policy implications for China's cities:Case of Nanjing[J].Energy Policy,2011,39(9):4785-4794.
[13]Cai B F,Zhang LX.“Study on the Spatial Characteristics of Urban CO_2Emissions in Shanghai”[J].Progressus Inquisitiones DEMutatione Climatis,2014,6:417-426.
[14]Lin J Y,Jacoby J,Cui S H,et al.A model for developing a target integrated low carbon city indicator system:The case of Xiamen,China[J].Ecological Indicators,2014,40:51-57.
[15]Feng K S,Hubacek K,Sun L X,et al.Consumption-based CO_2accounting of China’s megacities:The case of Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai and Chongqing[J].Ecological Indicators,2014,47:26-31.
[16]Peters G P.From production-based to consumption-based national emission inventories[J].Ecological Economics,2008,65(1):13-23.
[17]Davis S J,Caldeira K.Consumption-based accounting of CO_2emissions[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2010,107(12):5687-5692.
[18]Cai B F,Liang S,Zhou J,et al.China high resolution emission database(CHRED)with point emission sources,gridded emission data,and supplementary socioeconomic data[J].Resources,Conservation and Recycling,2018,129:232-239.
[19]Wang H,Zhang R,Liu M,et al.The carbon emissions of Chinese cities[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2012,12(14):6197-6206.
[20]Wang J,Cai,B F,Zhang L X,et al.High resolution carbon dioxide emission gridded data for China derived from point sources[J].Environmental science&technology,2014,48(12):7085-7093.
[21]赵敏,胡静,戴洁,等.基于能源平衡表的CO_2排放核算研究[J].生态经济,2012,(11):30-32.Zhao M,Hu J,Dai J,et al.The accounting of CO_2 emissions based on the energy balances[J].Ecological Economy,2012,(11):30-32.
[22]蔡博峰.中国4个城市范围CO_2排放比较研究--以重庆市为例[J].中国环境科学,2014,34(9):2439-2400.Cai B F.CO_2 emissions in four urban boundaries of China-Case study of Chongqing[J].China Environmental Science,2014,34(9):2439-2400.
[23]李海萍,龙宓,李光一.基于DMSP/OLS数据的区域碳排放时空动态研究[J].中国环境科学,2018,38(7):2777-2784.Li H P,Long M,Li G Y.Spatial-temporal dynamics of carbon dioxide emissions in China based on DMSP/OLS nighttime stable light data[J].China Environmental Science,2018,38(7):2777-2784.
[24]孙振清,汪国军,陈亚男.基于能源平衡表的碳排放清单核算不确定性分析[J].生态经济,2015,31(7):33-38.Sun Z Q,Wang G J,Chen Y N.Analysis on the uncertainty of carbon emission accounting based on energy balance sheet[J].Ecological Economy,2015,31(7):33-38.
[25]IPCC.2006IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories[Z].IGES,Japan,2006.
[26]刘竹,耿涌,薛冰,等.城市能源消费碳排放核算方法[J].资源科学,2011,33(7):1325-1330.Liu Z,Geng Y,Xue B,et al.A calculation method of CO_2 emission from urban energy consumption[J].Resources Science,2011,33(7):1325-1330.
[27]Zheng H,Shan Y,Mi Z,et al.How modifications of China’s energy data affect carbon mitigation targets[J].Energy Policy 2018,116:337-343.
[28]范建双,周琳.中国城乡居民生活消费碳排放变化的比较研究[J].中国环境科学,2018,38(11):4369-4383.Fan J S,Zhou L.A comparative study on the changes of residential living consumption carbon emissions in urban and rural China[J].China Environmental Science,2018,38(11):4369-4383.
[29]朱婧,刘学敏.能源活动碳排放核算与减排政策选择[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(7):70-75.Zhu J,Liu X M.Accounting and reduction policy on carbon emission from energy activities[J].China Population,Resource and Environment,2016,26(7):70-75.
[30]王金南,蔡博峰,曹东,等.中国10km二氧化碳排放网格及空间特征分析[J].中国环境科学,2014,34(1):1-6.Wang J N,Cai B F,Cao D.China 10km carbon dioxide emissions grid dataset and spatial characteristic analysis[J].China Environmental Science,2014,34(1):1-6.
[31]Xu X W H,Huo H,Liu J R,et al.Patterns of CO_2 emissions in18central Chinese cities from 2000 to 2014[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2018,172:529-540.
[32]Zheng B,Zhang Q,Davis SJ,et al.Infrastructure Shapes Differences in the Carbon Intensities of Chinese Cities[J].Environmental science&technology,2018,52(10):6032-6041.
[33]白卫国,庄贵阳,朱守先,等.中国城市温室气体清单核算研究--以广元市为例[J].城市问题,2013,(8):13-18.Bai W G,Zhuang G Y,Zhu S X,et al.Study on greenhouse gas inventory accounting in Chinese cities-a case study of Guangyuan[J].Urban Problems,2013(8):13-18.