基于粮食安全与生态安全的省域耕地休耕规模测算
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摘要
借鉴增量城镇用地区域配置的方法和原理,运用最小人均耕地面积模型、趋势预测法及熵权法,基于粮食安全与生态安全测算中国31个省份(直辖市、自治区)休耕耕地规模.结果表明:基于粮食安全与生态安全的中国31个省份(直辖市、自治区)可休耕耕地规模为1 690.73万hm2,各省(直辖市、自治区)耕地生态安全及休耕规模差异明显,休耕规模在空间上呈现出西北、沿海地区休耕规模大,西南、东北地区规模较小的分布格局.研究既突破了仅从宏观层面及粮食安全视角研究休耕规模的局限性,丰富和完善了探究耕地休耕规模的视角和方法,又为我国休耕规模分配和确定提供了科学依据及理论指导,有利于实现耕地休耕效益的最大化.
According to the methods and principles of regional allocation of newly increased construction land in urban areas,and adopting the minimum area of per capita cultivated land model,the trend analysis approach and the entropy weight method,this study measures the fallowing scale of provincial cultivated land of China based on food security and ecological security.The results show that the nationwide cultivated land fallowing scale based on food security and ecological safety is 1 690.73×104 hm~2;that the ecological security and the cultivated land fallow scale are significantly different among different provinces;and that the fallowing scale exhibits a spatial pattern of"large in the northwest and the coastal areas of the country and smaller in the southwest and northeast areas".This study estimates the cultivated land fallowing scale based on food security and ecological safety;it not only breaks through the limitations of studying fallowing scale only from the perspective of national level or food security,enriches the perspective and methods of exploring cultivated land fallowing scale,but also provides a scientific evidence and theoretical direction for the allocation of cultivated land fallowing scale in China,which is beneficial for achieving the maximum of cultivated land fallowing effectiveness.
According to the methods and principles of regional allocation of newly increased construction land in urban areas,and adopting the minimum area of per capita cultivated land model,the trend analysis approach and the entropy weight method,this study measures the fallowing scale of provincial cultivated land of China based on food security and ecological security.The results show that the nationwide cultivated land fallowing scale based on food security and ecological safety is 1 690.73×104 hm~2;that the ecological security and the cultivated land fallow scale are significantly different among different provinces;and that the fallowing scale exhibits a spatial pattern of"large in the northwest and the coastal areas of the country and smaller in the southwest and northeast areas".This study estimates the cultivated land fallowing scale based on food security and ecological safety;it not only breaks through the limitations of studying fallowing scale only from the perspective of national level or food security,enriches the perspective and methods of exploring cultivated land fallowing scale,but also provides a scientific evidence and theoretical direction for the allocation of cultivated land fallowing scale in China,which is beneficial for achieving the maximum of cultivated land fallowing effectiveness.
引文
[1]赵其国,滕应,黄国勤.中国探索实行耕地轮作休耕制度试点问题的战略思考[J].生态环境学报,2017,26(1):1-5.
[2]黄国勤,赵其国.江西省耕地轮作休耕现状、问题及对策[J].中国生态农业学报,2017,25(7):1002-1007.
[3]杨庆媛.协同推进土地整治与耕地休养生息[J].中国土地,2017(5):19-21.
[4]沈仁芳,陈美军,孔祥斌,等.耕地质量的概念和评价与管理对策[J].土壤学报,2012,49(6):1210-1217.
[5]向青,尹润生.美国环保休耕计划的做法与经验[J].林业经济,2006(1):73-78.
[6]朱文清.美国休耕保护项目问题研究[J].林业经济,2009(12):80-83.
[7]王永春,王秀东.日本的农业补贴——水稻[J].世界农业,2009(12):27-29.
[8] REN T,JUN L I.Exploitation and Utilization of Summer Fallow Farmland on Main River Valley Areas in Tibet[J].Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas,2008,26(4):105-108.
[9]揣小伟,黄贤金,钟太洋.休耕模式下我国耕地保有量初探[J].山东师范大学学报(自然科学版),2008,23(3):99-102.
[10]王礼力.论农业的外部性与农业政策目标[J].陕西农业科学,1998(3):39-41.
[11]李凡凡,刘友兆.中国粮食安全保障前提下耕地休耕潜力初探[J].中国农学通报,2014,30(Z):35-41.
[12]赵雲泰,黄贤金,钟太洋,等.区域虚拟休耕规模与空间布局研究[J].水土保持通报,2011,31(5):103-107.
[13]杨庆缓,毕国华,陈展图,等.喀斯特生态脆弱区休耕地的空间配置研究——以贵州省晴隆县为例[J].地理学报,2018,73(11):2250-2266.
[14]杨庆媛,信桂新,江娟丽,等.欧美及东亚地区耕地轮作休耕制度实践:对比与启示[J].中国土地科学,2017,31(4):71-79.
[15]洪建国,样刚巧,苗欣,等.增量城镇用地区域配置研究——以湖北省为例[J].中国土地科学,2008,22(12):39-45,67.
[16]蔡运龙,傅泽强,戴尔阜.区域最小人均耕地面积与耕地资源调控[J].地理学报,2002,57(2):127-134.
[17]施毅超.基于粮食安全、经济发展和生态安全的长江三角洲地区耕地保护研究[D].南京:南京农业大学,2007.
[18]王红茹,郭芳,李雪.中国粮食地图:从“南粮北运”到“北粮南运”[EB/OL].http://paper.pecople.com.cm/zgjjzk/html/2013-07/01/content-1263888.htm.
[19]吴大放,刘艳艳,刘毅华,等.耕地生态安全评价研究展望[J].中国生态农业学报,2015,23(3):257-267.
[20]王千,晓斌,周寅康.河北省耕地生态安全及空间聚集格局[J].农业工程学报,2011,27(8):338-344.
[21]徐美,朱翔,刘春腊.基于RBF的湖南省土地生态安全动态预警[J].地理学报,2012,67(10):1411-1422.
[22]赵宏波,马延吉.东北粮食主产区耕地生态安全的时空格局及障碍因子——以吉林省为例[J].应用生态学报,2014,25(2):515-524.
[23]朱康文,雷波,何君,等.重庆市生态保护红线空间管理系统研究与应用[J].三峡生态环境监测,2017,2(2):1-8.
[24]王文兴,童莉,海热提.土壤污染物来源及前沿问题[J].生态环境,2005,14(1):1-5.
[25]朱震达,刘恕.关于沙漠化的概念及其发展程度的判断[J].中国沙漠,1984,4(3):2-8.
[26]董光荣,申建友,金炯,等.关于“荒漠化”与“沙漠化”的概念[J].干旱区地理,1988,11(1):58-61.
[27]张锐,郑华伟,刘友兆.基于PSR模型的耕地生态安全物元分析评价[J].生态学报,2013,33(16):5090-5100.
[28]新华社.国家粮食安全中长期规划纲要(2008-2020年)[EB/OL].http://www.gov.cn/test/2008-11/14/content_1148698.htm.
[29]国土资源部.《全国土地利用总体规划纲要(2006-2020年)》调整方案[EB/OL].http://jiuban.moa.gov.cn/zwllm/zcfg/qtbmgz/201606/t20160630_5191305.htm.
[30]谢花林,刘桂英.1998-2012年中国耕地复种指数时空差异及动因[J].地理学报,2015,70(4):604-614.
[31]哈尔克木,张新华.新疆生态农业发展问题及对策研究[J].新疆科技论坛,2015(6):77-82.
[2]黄国勤,赵其国.江西省耕地轮作休耕现状、问题及对策[J].中国生态农业学报,2017,25(7):1002-1007.
[3]杨庆媛.协同推进土地整治与耕地休养生息[J].中国土地,2017(5):19-21.
[4]沈仁芳,陈美军,孔祥斌,等.耕地质量的概念和评价与管理对策[J].土壤学报,2012,49(6):1210-1217.
[5]向青,尹润生.美国环保休耕计划的做法与经验[J].林业经济,2006(1):73-78.
[6]朱文清.美国休耕保护项目问题研究[J].林业经济,2009(12):80-83.
[7]王永春,王秀东.日本的农业补贴——水稻[J].世界农业,2009(12):27-29.
[8] REN T,JUN L I.Exploitation and Utilization of Summer Fallow Farmland on Main River Valley Areas in Tibet[J].Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas,2008,26(4):105-108.
[9]揣小伟,黄贤金,钟太洋.休耕模式下我国耕地保有量初探[J].山东师范大学学报(自然科学版),2008,23(3):99-102.
[10]王礼力.论农业的外部性与农业政策目标[J].陕西农业科学,1998(3):39-41.
[11]李凡凡,刘友兆.中国粮食安全保障前提下耕地休耕潜力初探[J].中国农学通报,2014,30(Z):35-41.
[12]赵雲泰,黄贤金,钟太洋,等.区域虚拟休耕规模与空间布局研究[J].水土保持通报,2011,31(5):103-107.
[13]杨庆缓,毕国华,陈展图,等.喀斯特生态脆弱区休耕地的空间配置研究——以贵州省晴隆县为例[J].地理学报,2018,73(11):2250-2266.
[14]杨庆媛,信桂新,江娟丽,等.欧美及东亚地区耕地轮作休耕制度实践:对比与启示[J].中国土地科学,2017,31(4):71-79.
[15]洪建国,样刚巧,苗欣,等.增量城镇用地区域配置研究——以湖北省为例[J].中国土地科学,2008,22(12):39-45,67.
[16]蔡运龙,傅泽强,戴尔阜.区域最小人均耕地面积与耕地资源调控[J].地理学报,2002,57(2):127-134.
[17]施毅超.基于粮食安全、经济发展和生态安全的长江三角洲地区耕地保护研究[D].南京:南京农业大学,2007.
[18]王红茹,郭芳,李雪.中国粮食地图:从“南粮北运”到“北粮南运”[EB/OL].http://paper.pecople.com.cm/zgjjzk/html/2013-07/01/content-1263888.htm.
[19]吴大放,刘艳艳,刘毅华,等.耕地生态安全评价研究展望[J].中国生态农业学报,2015,23(3):257-267.
[20]王千,晓斌,周寅康.河北省耕地生态安全及空间聚集格局[J].农业工程学报,2011,27(8):338-344.
[21]徐美,朱翔,刘春腊.基于RBF的湖南省土地生态安全动态预警[J].地理学报,2012,67(10):1411-1422.
[22]赵宏波,马延吉.东北粮食主产区耕地生态安全的时空格局及障碍因子——以吉林省为例[J].应用生态学报,2014,25(2):515-524.
[23]朱康文,雷波,何君,等.重庆市生态保护红线空间管理系统研究与应用[J].三峡生态环境监测,2017,2(2):1-8.
[24]王文兴,童莉,海热提.土壤污染物来源及前沿问题[J].生态环境,2005,14(1):1-5.
[25]朱震达,刘恕.关于沙漠化的概念及其发展程度的判断[J].中国沙漠,1984,4(3):2-8.
[26]董光荣,申建友,金炯,等.关于“荒漠化”与“沙漠化”的概念[J].干旱区地理,1988,11(1):58-61.
[27]张锐,郑华伟,刘友兆.基于PSR模型的耕地生态安全物元分析评价[J].生态学报,2013,33(16):5090-5100.
[28]新华社.国家粮食安全中长期规划纲要(2008-2020年)[EB/OL].http://www.gov.cn/test/2008-11/14/content_1148698.htm.
[29]国土资源部.《全国土地利用总体规划纲要(2006-2020年)》调整方案[EB/OL].http://jiuban.moa.gov.cn/zwllm/zcfg/qtbmgz/201606/t20160630_5191305.htm.
[30]谢花林,刘桂英.1998-2012年中国耕地复种指数时空差异及动因[J].地理学报,2015,70(4):604-614.
[31]哈尔克木,张新华.新疆生态农业发展问题及对策研究[J].新疆科技论坛,2015(6):77-82.
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