面向任务流程的装备体系完成任务概率仿真评估方法
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摘要
为了解决传统可靠性建模方法无法刻画装备体系复杂性及对装备体系完成任务概率进行准确评估等问题,提出了一种面向任务流程的装备体系完成任务概率离散事件仿真评估方法。该评估方法中,采用过程流网方法对装备体系任务流程进行建模,并对过程流网扩展了时间和资源等元素,引入活动影响因子,梳理子任务及活动间逻辑关系。采用离散事件仿真方法建立装备体系完成任务概率仿真评估模型,生成实体执行仿真过程,将进入导致任务成功的端点的实体数量与生成的所有实体总量的比记为完成任务概率,设置仿真时钟记录实体执行每项活动的时间,求平均值记为任务平均时间。最后,以某典型陆军作战体系为例,说明所提出方法的可行性。
To solve the problem that traditional reliability evaluation methods cannot describe the complexity of equipment system of systems(ESoS)and evaluate the mission completion probability accurately,a new evaluation method based on discrete event simulation is proposed.In this method,the process flow network method with expanded elements such as time and resources and activity impact factor are used to model the task flow of ESoS to clarify logical relationships between sub-tasks and activities.The discrete event simulation method is used to establish the ESoS mission completion probability simulation evaluation model,entities are generated to perform the simulation process.The mission completion probability is set the ratio of the number of entities entering the endpoint that caused the success of the mission to the total amount of all entities generated,and the simulation clock is set to record the time at which time each entity performed each activity.The mean mission time is recorded as the average time of the mission.Finally,a typical army operation ESoS is simulated as an example to illustrate the feasibility of the proposed method.
To solve the problem that traditional reliability evaluation methods cannot describe the complexity of equipment system of systems(ESoS)and evaluate the mission completion probability accurately,a new evaluation method based on discrete event simulation is proposed.In this method,the process flow network method with expanded elements such as time and resources and activity impact factor are used to model the task flow of ESoS to clarify logical relationships between sub-tasks and activities.The discrete event simulation method is used to establish the ESoS mission completion probability simulation evaluation model,entities are generated to perform the simulation process.The mission completion probability is set the ratio of the number of entities entering the endpoint that caused the success of the mission to the total amount of all entities generated,and the simulation clock is set to record the time at which time each entity performed each activity.The mean mission time is recorded as the average time of the mission.Finally,a typical army operation ESoS is simulated as an example to illustrate the feasibility of the proposed method.
引文
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[15]IBRAHIMOVIC S,BAJGORIC N.Modeling information system availability by using bayesian belief network approach[J].Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems,2016,14(2):125-138.
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[18]PAN X,HE C J,WEN T.A SOS reliability evaluate approach based on GERT[C]∥Proc.of the IEEE Reliability and Maintainability Symposium,2015:1-7.
[19]潘星,尹宝石,温晓华.基于DoDAF的装备体系任务建模与仿真[J].系统工程与电子技术,2012,34(9):1846-1851.PAN X,YIN B S,WEN X H.Mission modeling and simulation for equipment system of systems based on DoDAF[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2012,34(9):1846-1851.
[20]江式伟,吕卫民,冯浩源.基于时间Petri网的装备体系可靠性建模与仿真[J].系统工程与电子技术,2013,35(4):895-899.JIANG S W,LV W M,FENG H Y.Reliability modeling and simulation of equipment system-of-systems based on timing Petri net[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2013,35(4):895-899.
[21]ERYILMAZ S.The effectiveness of adding cold standby redundancy to a coherent system at system and component levels[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2017,165:331-335.
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[23]COOK J L.System of systems reliability for multi-state systems[C]∥Proc.of the Reliability and Maintainability Symposium,2009.
[24]尹超,罗鹏,李孝,等.基于Multi-Agent的机床装备资源优化选择方法[J].计算机集成制造系统,2016,22(6):1475-1485.YIN C,LUO P,LI X B,et al.Optimal selection method for machine tool resource based on multi-agent[J].Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems,2016,22(6):1475-1485.
[25]ANDERSON D J,CARTER C M,BROWN T.Complexities of system of systems operational availability modeling[C]∥Proc.of the Reliability and Maintainability Symposium,2015:1-6.
[26]LU J M,WU X Y.Reliability evaluation of generalized phasedmission systems with repairable components[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2014,121:136-145.
[27]SALVANESCHI P.Modeling of information systems as systems of systems through DSM[C]∥Proc.of the 4th International Workshop on Software Engineering for Systems-of-Systems,2016.
[28]DARABI H R,GOROD A,MO M,et al.Using hybrid modeling to simulate maritime transportation system of systems(MTSoS)[C]∥Proc.of the IEEE Systems Conference,2012:1-6.
[29]肖田元,范文慧.系统仿真概论[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2010.XIAO T Y,FAN W H.Introduction to system simulation[M].Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,2010.
[30]Headquarters Department of the Army.The army universal task list[EB/OL].[2017-10-22].http:∥www.waffenexporte.de/NRANEU/others/amd-us-archive/fm7-15(03).pdf.
[2]MOKHTARPOUR B,STRACENER J T.Mission reliability analysis of phased-mission systems-of-systems with data sharing capability[C]∥Proc.of the IEEE Reliability and Maintainability Symposium,2015.
[3]宋太亮,王岩磊,方颖.装备大保障观总论[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2014.SONG T L,WANG Y L,FANG Y.General philosophy of support for materiel development[M].Beijing:National Defense Industry Press,2014.
[4]HOU J,QIAN Y.Selective maintenance model based on different mission duration time[C]∥Proc.of the IEEE International Conference on Mechatronics and Automation,2015:2491-2495.
[5]MOON J,DOMERCANT J C,MAVRIS D.A simplified approach to assessment of mission success for helicopter landing on a ship[J].International Journal of Control Automation&Systems,2015,13(3):680-688.
[6]CAI Z Q,GUO P,LI Y,et al.Evaluation of mission success for binary system with repairable spare parts[C]∥Proc.of the IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management,2016:526-530.
[7]WANG C,XING L,PENG R,et al.Competing failure analysis in phased-mission systems with multiple functional dependence groups[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2017,164:24-33.
[8]MOKHTARPOUR B,STRACENER J T.Mission reliability analysis of phased-mission systems-of-systems with data sharing capability[C]∥Proc.of the Reliability and Maintainability Symposium,2015.
[9]LIU B,XIE M,XU Z,et al.An imperfect maintenance policy for mission-oriented systems subject to degradation and external shocks[J].Computers&Industrial Engineering,2016,102:21-32.
[10]LU J M,WU X Y,LIU Y,et al.Reliability analysis of large phased-mission systems with repairable components based on success-state sampling[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2015,142:123-133.
[11]YANG S,XU L,XU J.Novel assessment model for the launch success ratio for lunar exploration[J].Journal of Aerospace Engineering,2014,28(5):04014130.
[12]LEVITIN G,FINKELSTEIN M,DAI Y.Redundancy optimization for series-parallel phased mission systems exposed to random shocks[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2017,167:554-560.
[13]OLMEZ A E.Mission centric reliability analysis of C4ISR architectures using Petri Nets[C]∥Proc.of the IEEE International Conference on Systems,Man and Cybernetics,2003:587-592.
[14]FRANKE U,JOHNSON P.Availability of enterprise IT systems-an expert-based Bayesian model[J].Software Quality Journal,2012,20(2):369-394.
[15]IBRAHIMOVIC S,BAJGORIC N.Modeling information system availability by using bayesian belief network approach[J].Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems,2016,14(2):125-138.
[16]VASSILIOU M S,ALBERTS D S,SHAH S.Mission success:assured communications and agile organizations[C]∥Proc.of the IEEE International Carnahan Conference on Security Technology,2017.
[17]王磊,罗雪山,舒振.C4ISR体系结构服务视图及其演化的形式化描述方法[J].国防科技大学学报,2011,33(3):134-139.WANG L,LUO X S,SHU Z.Formalized description of serviceview and evolution within C4ISR architecture[J].Journal of National University of Defense Technology,2011,33(3):134-139.
[18]PAN X,HE C J,WEN T.A SOS reliability evaluate approach based on GERT[C]∥Proc.of the IEEE Reliability and Maintainability Symposium,2015:1-7.
[19]潘星,尹宝石,温晓华.基于DoDAF的装备体系任务建模与仿真[J].系统工程与电子技术,2012,34(9):1846-1851.PAN X,YIN B S,WEN X H.Mission modeling and simulation for equipment system of systems based on DoDAF[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2012,34(9):1846-1851.
[20]江式伟,吕卫民,冯浩源.基于时间Petri网的装备体系可靠性建模与仿真[J].系统工程与电子技术,2013,35(4):895-899.JIANG S W,LV W M,FENG H Y.Reliability modeling and simulation of equipment system-of-systems based on timing Petri net[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2013,35(4):895-899.
[21]ERYILMAZ S.The effectiveness of adding cold standby redundancy to a coherent system at system and component levels[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2017,165:331-335.
[22]徐航,陈春良.装备精确保障概论[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2012.XU H,CHEN C L.Equipment efficient support generlity[M].Beijing:National Defense Industry Press,2012.
[23]COOK J L.System of systems reliability for multi-state systems[C]∥Proc.of the Reliability and Maintainability Symposium,2009.
[24]尹超,罗鹏,李孝,等.基于Multi-Agent的机床装备资源优化选择方法[J].计算机集成制造系统,2016,22(6):1475-1485.YIN C,LUO P,LI X B,et al.Optimal selection method for machine tool resource based on multi-agent[J].Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems,2016,22(6):1475-1485.
[25]ANDERSON D J,CARTER C M,BROWN T.Complexities of system of systems operational availability modeling[C]∥Proc.of the Reliability and Maintainability Symposium,2015:1-6.
[26]LU J M,WU X Y.Reliability evaluation of generalized phasedmission systems with repairable components[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2014,121:136-145.
[27]SALVANESCHI P.Modeling of information systems as systems of systems through DSM[C]∥Proc.of the 4th International Workshop on Software Engineering for Systems-of-Systems,2016.
[28]DARABI H R,GOROD A,MO M,et al.Using hybrid modeling to simulate maritime transportation system of systems(MTSoS)[C]∥Proc.of the IEEE Systems Conference,2012:1-6.
[29]肖田元,范文慧.系统仿真概论[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2010.XIAO T Y,FAN W H.Introduction to system simulation[M].Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,2010.
[30]Headquarters Department of the Army.The army universal task list[EB/OL].[2017-10-22].http:∥www.waffenexporte.de/NRANEU/others/amd-us-archive/fm7-15(03).pdf.