2017年全球能源统计与未来展望
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摘要
全球能源生产与消费情况统计、分析和预测,对于各个国家发展战略有着积极的意义。基于BP公司每年发布的世界能源统计和未来展望,结合其他一些机构发布的相关数据,总结了2017年全球能源统计情况和未来发展预测。2017年全球一次能源消费增幅较大,高于十年平均增速(1. 7%),是2013年以来的最快增长。其中天然气增长最快,其次是可再生能源和石油,发电量增长2. 8%,能源消费增长的同时带来了2017年碳排放量1. 6%的增长。BP公司基于"渐进转型"情景,对能源发展进行了展望,预计到2040年石油、天然气、煤炭和非化石能源将各占世界能源的四分之一,其中石油稳定发展,天然气增长强劲,煤炭放缓。电力占一次能源需求增长的近70%。用于发电的燃料结构将发生重大转变,可再生能源比例将从现在的7%增长至25%左右。同时预计能源使用导致碳排放在展望期大部分时间内仍会增长,到2040年约增长10%。
Statistics,analysis and forecast to global energy production and consumption are of positive significance to the national strategies. Based on BP company statistical review of world and outlook,and combined with data released by other agencies,the 2017 global energy statistics and future development is summed up. In 2017,global primary energy consumption increased significantly,higher than the average growth rate of ten years( 1. 7 %),the fastest growth since 2013. Among them,natural gas grew fastest,followed by renewable energy and oil,and power generation increased by 2. 8 %. Energy consumption growth also brought about a 1. 6 % increase in carbon emissions in 2017. Based on the "gradual transformation"model,BP looks forward to the development of energy. It is estimated that by 2040,oil,natural gas,coal and non-fossil energy will each account for a quarter of the world's energy. Among them,oil is developing steadily and natural gas is growing strongly. Coal is slowing down. Electricity accounts for nearly 70 % of primary energy demand growth. The fuel structure used for power generation will undergo a major shift,and renewable energy will increase from the current 7 % to around 25 %. At the same time,energy use is expected to cause carbon emissions to continue to grow during most of the horizon,increasing by about 10 % by 2040.
Statistics,analysis and forecast to global energy production and consumption are of positive significance to the national strategies. Based on BP company statistical review of world and outlook,and combined with data released by other agencies,the 2017 global energy statistics and future development is summed up. In 2017,global primary energy consumption increased significantly,higher than the average growth rate of ten years( 1. 7 %),the fastest growth since 2013. Among them,natural gas grew fastest,followed by renewable energy and oil,and power generation increased by 2. 8 %. Energy consumption growth also brought about a 1. 6 % increase in carbon emissions in 2017. Based on the "gradual transformation"model,BP looks forward to the development of energy. It is estimated that by 2040,oil,natural gas,coal and non-fossil energy will each account for a quarter of the world's energy. Among them,oil is developing steadily and natural gas is growing strongly. Coal is slowing down. Electricity accounts for nearly 70 % of primary energy demand growth. The fuel structure used for power generation will undergo a major shift,and renewable energy will increase from the current 7 % to around 25 %. At the same time,energy use is expected to cause carbon emissions to continue to grow during most of the horizon,increasing by about 10 % by 2040.
引文
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[2]马丁,单葆国.2030年世界能源展望---基于全球能源展望报告的对比研究[J].中国能源,2017,39(2):21-24.Ma Ding,Shan Baoguo.World Energy Outlook 2030:AComparative Study Based on the Global Energy Outlook Report[J].Energy of China,2017,39(2):21-24.
[3]代晓东,王余宝,毕晓光,等.2016年世界能源供需情况分析与未来展望---基于《BP世界能源统计年鉴》与《BP世界能源展望》[J].天然气与石油,2017,35(6):8-12.Dai Xiaodong,Wang Yubao,Bi Xiaoguang,et al.Analysis on World Energy Supply&Demand in 2016 and Future Prospects-Based on BP Statistic Review on World Energy and BP World Energy Prospect[J].Natural Gas and Oil,2017,35(6):8-12.
[4]代晓东,王潇潇,毕晓光,等.2015年世界能源供需解读---基于《BP世界能源统计年鉴》[J].天然气与石油,2017,35(1):1-4.Dai Xiaodong,Wang Xiaoxiao,Bi Xiaoguang,et al.Analysis on the World Energy Supply&Demand in 2015-Based on the BP Statistical Review of World Energy Published in June2016[J].Natural Gas and Oil,2017,35(1):1-4.
[5]曹斌,李文涛,杜国敏,等.2030年后世界能源将走向何方?---全球主要能源展望报告分析[J].国际石油经济,2016,24(11):8-15.Cao Bin,Li Wentao,Du Guomin,et al.World Energy Trend to2030-Analysis of Major Global Energy Outlook Reports[J].International Petroleum Economics,2016,24(11):8-15.
[6]杨国丰.BP《2035年世界能源展望》概要[J].石油与天然气地质,2015,36(2):172.Yang Guofeng.Summary of BP Energy Outlook 2035[J].Oil and Gas Geology,2015,36(2):172.
[7]李莉,王睿.2014年世界能源供需浅析[J].当代石油化工,2015,23(9):6-11.Li Li,Wang Rui.Simple Analysis of World Energy Supply&Demand in 2014[J].Petroleum&Petrochemical Today,2015,23(9):6-11.
[8]王立伟.IGU对《世界能源展望2015》报告做出响应[J].地球进展科学,2015,30(11):1197.Wang Liwei.IGU Reaction to the IEA World Energy Outlook2015[J].Advances in Earth Science,2015,30(11):1197.
[9]张映红,路保平.世界能源趋势预测及能源技术革命特征分析[J].天然气工业,2015,35(10):1-10.Zhang Yinghong,Lu Baoping.Prediction of Global Energy Trend and Analysis on Energy Technology Innovation Characteristics[J].Natural Gas Industry,2015,35(10):1-10.
[10]王睿.2013年世界能源供需浅析---《BP世界能源统计2014》解读[J].当代石油化工,2014,22(9):37-46Wang Rui.Simple Analysis on the Supply&Demand of World Energy in 2013-A Reading of BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2014[J].Petroleum&Petrochemical Today,2014,22(9):37-46.
[11]王宏峰.从《世界能源统计年鉴》看世界能源供需变化[J].能源研究与利用,2013,25(4):8-9.Wang Hongfeng.Change of World Energy Supply and Demand from the Statistical Review of World Energy[J].Energy Research&Utilization,2013,25(4):8-9.
[12]李嘉,王立敏.开放的竞争市场维系能源供需均衡---《BP世界能源统计2012》解析[J].国际石油经济,2012,20(7):36-41.Li Jia,Wang Limin.Open Competitive Market to Maintain the Balance of Energy Supply and Demand-Analysis of BPStatistical Review of World Energy 2012[J].International Petroleum Economics,2012,20(7):36-41.
[13]崔茉.BP能源展望:2030年油气煤三足鼎立[N].中国石油报,2011-01-26(001).Cui Mo.BP Energy Outlook:Oil,Gas and Coal will Form a Tripartite Confrontation in 2030[N].China Petroleum Daily,2011-01-26(001).