高等教育人口对城市化的影响研究——来自中国287个地级及以上城市的经验证据
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摘要
文章基于1999～2015年中国287个地级及以上城市的面板数据,考察高等教育人口对城市化的影响。结果发现:(1)由于拥挤效应的存在,高等教育人口与城市化之间并非呈简单的正向线性关系。在小型、中型城市高等教育人口对城市化的直接影响为正,而在大型和特大型城市正影响明显降低;高等教育人口对城市化的间接效应均为正,但随着城市规模的扩大而不断降低。(2)与中西部地区城市相比,高等教育人口对城市化所产生负向的直接影响、正向的间接影响及其减弱的幅度在东部地区城市表现得更为突出。文章认为,应做好城市发展定位,采取优先鼓励高校毕业生进入小型和中型城市工作、严格控制大型和特大型城市的拥挤效应、合理分布高等教育资源等措施,以便充分发挥高等教育人口对城市化的正向作用。
Based on the panel data of 287 cities at and above the prefecture level in China during 1999-2015, this paper examines the effects of higher education population on urbanization. The results show that,(1) because of the congestion effects, it is not a simple positive linear relationship between higher education and urbanization. The direct effect of higher education population on urbanization is positive in small and medium-sized cities, but it is significantly reduced or even turns into negative in large and ultra-large cities. The indirect effect of higher education population on urbanization is positive, but it decreases with the expansion of city scale.(2) From the view of regional disparity, compared with the cities in the central and western regions, the effects are more prominent in the eastern cities. The paper urges policy initiatives to improve the positioning of urban development, encourage college graduates to work in small and medium-sized cities,control the congestion effects of large and ultra-large cities strictly, and distribute higher education resources rationally, in order to give full play to the positive role of higher education population on urbanization.
Based on the panel data of 287 cities at and above the prefecture level in China during 1999-2015, this paper examines the effects of higher education population on urbanization. The results show that,(1) because of the congestion effects, it is not a simple positive linear relationship between higher education and urbanization. The direct effect of higher education population on urbanization is positive in small and medium-sized cities, but it is significantly reduced or even turns into negative in large and ultra-large cities. The indirect effect of higher education population on urbanization is positive, but it decreases with the expansion of city scale.(2) From the view of regional disparity, compared with the cities in the central and western regions, the effects are more prominent in the eastern cities. The paper urges policy initiatives to improve the positioning of urban development, encourage college graduates to work in small and medium-sized cities,control the congestion effects of large and ultra-large cities strictly, and distribute higher education resources rationally, in order to give full play to the positive role of higher education population on urbanization.
引文
1.陈辉民、徐运保(2016):《高等教育、城市化与经济水平相关性研究》,《现代教育管理》,第3期。
2.陈彦光(2011):《城市化与经济发展水平关系的三种模型及其动力学分析》,《地理科学》,第1期。
3.郭书君、米红(2005):《我国高等教育规模与城市化互动发展的实证研究》,《现代大学教育》,第5期。
4.王家庭、崔风玉(2010):《我国人口教育结构与城市化关系的实证研究》,《城市发展研究》,第12期。
5.项本武等(2012):《人力资本积累对城市规模扩张的影响——基于中国地级及以上城市面板数据的实证检验》,《中南财经政法大学学报》,第6期。
6.杨萌萌(2018):《高等教育人力资本对我国城镇化水平的影响研究》,《发展研究》,第11期。
7.姚旭兵等(2017):《人力资本结构影响新型城镇化的门槛效应》,《城市问题》,第2期。
8.郑勤华、赖德胜(2008):《人力资本与中国城市化的地区差异研究》,《中国人口科学》,第1期。
9.张臻汉(2013):《高等教育与城市化的关系研究》,《兰州大学学报(社会科学版)》,第6期。
10. Choy,L.H.T.,Li,V.J.(2017),The Role of Higher Education in China's Inclusive Urbanization. Cities. 60(B):504-510.
11. Diamond,R.(2013),The Determinants and Welfare Implications of US Workers'Diverging Location Choices by Skill:1980-2000. The A merican Economic Review. 106(3):479-524.
12. Romer,P.M.(1990),Endogenous Technological Change.Journal of Political Economy. 98(5):S71-S102.
(1)含当年毕业生人数,下同。
2.陈彦光(2011):《城市化与经济发展水平关系的三种模型及其动力学分析》,《地理科学》,第1期。
3.郭书君、米红(2005):《我国高等教育规模与城市化互动发展的实证研究》,《现代大学教育》,第5期。
4.王家庭、崔风玉(2010):《我国人口教育结构与城市化关系的实证研究》,《城市发展研究》,第12期。
5.项本武等(2012):《人力资本积累对城市规模扩张的影响——基于中国地级及以上城市面板数据的实证检验》,《中南财经政法大学学报》,第6期。
6.杨萌萌(2018):《高等教育人力资本对我国城镇化水平的影响研究》,《发展研究》,第11期。
7.姚旭兵等(2017):《人力资本结构影响新型城镇化的门槛效应》,《城市问题》,第2期。
8.郑勤华、赖德胜(2008):《人力资本与中国城市化的地区差异研究》,《中国人口科学》,第1期。
9.张臻汉(2013):《高等教育与城市化的关系研究》,《兰州大学学报(社会科学版)》,第6期。
10. Choy,L.H.T.,Li,V.J.(2017),The Role of Higher Education in China's Inclusive Urbanization. Cities. 60(B):504-510.
11. Diamond,R.(2013),The Determinants and Welfare Implications of US Workers'Diverging Location Choices by Skill:1980-2000. The A merican Economic Review. 106(3):479-524.
12. Romer,P.M.(1990),Endogenous Technological Change.Journal of Political Economy. 98(5):S71-S102.
(1)含当年毕业生人数,下同。