房地产市场风险因素识别与评价
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摘要
从价格、存货、资金和政策四个层面的因素入手,选取相对应的4个一级指标和15个二级指标,构建起房地产市场风险评价指标体系;运用结构方程模型(SEM)对各项评价指标的影响程度进行重要性排序,提炼出房地产市场的主要风险因素,进而对房地产市场风险因素进行评价;针对性地提出房地产市场风险的防范策略。
This paper chooses four first-level indices and fifteen second-level indices from the four aspects of inventory, price, capital and policy to construct the risk evaluation index system of the real estate market, and uses the structural equation model(SEM) to rank the importance of the impact degree of each evaluation index. The main risk factors of the real estate market are determined, and then these risk factors of the real estate market are evaluated. The strategies to prevent the real estate market risk are also put forward.
This paper chooses four first-level indices and fifteen second-level indices from the four aspects of inventory, price, capital and policy to construct the risk evaluation index system of the real estate market, and uses the structural equation model(SEM) to rank the importance of the impact degree of each evaluation index. The main risk factors of the real estate market are determined, and then these risk factors of the real estate market are evaluated. The strategies to prevent the real estate market risk are also put forward.
引文
[1] GEORGE D C,David M H,Michael J S.Capital structure and political risk in Asia-Pacific real estate markets[J].The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,2016 (2):125-129.
[2] JESS B.Financial markets,the real economy,and self-fulfilling uncertainties[J].The Journal of Finance,2019 (3):218-224.
[3] 齐讴歌.房地产价格波动对金融体系的传导效应研究[J].统计与决策,2015(16):144-148.
[4] ANDREAS D C.Credit risk findings for commercial real estate [J].Finance Research Letters,2016 (5):210-213.
[5] 蔡真.我国系统性金融风险与房地产市场的关联、传染途径及对策[J].中国社会科学院研究生院学报,2018(5):42-61.
[6] CHRISTOPHER C,CONTRERAS V,GARAY U,et al.Expropria from an emerging market[J].Journal of Business Research,2014(5):935-942.
[7] ZHANG H,LI L,CHEN T,et al.Where will China’s real estate market go under the economys,new normal[J].Cities,2016(55):42-48.
[8] 钟荣桂,江丽.中国经济新常态与房地产市场风险防范[J].现代管理科学,2017(4):103-105.
[9] 郭文伟,钟明.基于变点CAViaR模型的中国房地产市场风险演化模式研究[J].系统工程,2017(4):9-16.
[10] 黄梦非,姚明秀,鲁波涛.贝叶斯网络决策在房地产投资风险控制中的应用[J].统计与决策,2017(21):71-74.
[11] 王大港.新常态下中国城市房地产风险评价及调控策略研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2017.
[12] 陈希镇,李学娟.结构方程模型下的信度估计[J].统计与决策,2011(1):13-15.
[13] HAIR J F,ANDERSON R E ,TATHAM R L,et al.Multivariate data analysis[J].Prentice Hall College Div,1999(41):119-124.
[2] JESS B.Financial markets,the real economy,and self-fulfilling uncertainties[J].The Journal of Finance,2019 (3):218-224.
[3] 齐讴歌.房地产价格波动对金融体系的传导效应研究[J].统计与决策,2015(16):144-148.
[4] ANDREAS D C.Credit risk findings for commercial real estate [J].Finance Research Letters,2016 (5):210-213.
[5] 蔡真.我国系统性金融风险与房地产市场的关联、传染途径及对策[J].中国社会科学院研究生院学报,2018(5):42-61.
[6] CHRISTOPHER C,CONTRERAS V,GARAY U,et al.Expropria from an emerging market[J].Journal of Business Research,2014(5):935-942.
[7] ZHANG H,LI L,CHEN T,et al.Where will China’s real estate market go under the economys,new normal[J].Cities,2016(55):42-48.
[8] 钟荣桂,江丽.中国经济新常态与房地产市场风险防范[J].现代管理科学,2017(4):103-105.
[9] 郭文伟,钟明.基于变点CAViaR模型的中国房地产市场风险演化模式研究[J].系统工程,2017(4):9-16.
[10] 黄梦非,姚明秀,鲁波涛.贝叶斯网络决策在房地产投资风险控制中的应用[J].统计与决策,2017(21):71-74.
[11] 王大港.新常态下中国城市房地产风险评价及调控策略研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2017.
[12] 陈希镇,李学娟.结构方程模型下的信度估计[J].统计与决策,2011(1):13-15.
[13] HAIR J F,ANDERSON R E ,TATHAM R L,et al.Multivariate data analysis[J].Prentice Hall College Div,1999(41):119-124.