金融发展、FDI溢出与经济增长效率——基于长江经济带的实证研究
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摘要
基于长江经济带108个城市的平衡面板数据,运用系统GMM实证检验金融发展、外商直接投资(FDI)对经济增长效率的影响。结果显示:总体上,金融发展显著促进了长江经济带经济增长效率的提升,而FDI则对经济增长效率有显著抑制效应,二者交互项系数显著为正,表明FDI进一步强化了金融发展对经济增长效率的促进作用,同时金融发展水平是发挥FDI溢出效应的一个重要环境因素。分区域来看,下游地区与长江经济带总体回归结果较为一致;中游地区金融发展和FDI对经济增长效率均有抑制作用,且二者能否促进经济增长效率的提升均依赖于对方的发展情况;而上游地区金融发展、FDI均促进了经济效率的提升,并且当金融深化超过一定程度时,更有助于发挥FDI正向溢出效应对经济增长效率的促进作用。
Based on the balance panel data of 108 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,the paper uses the system GMM to empirically test the impact of financial development and foreign direct investment on economic growth efficiency. The results show that, on the whole, financial development significantly promotes the economic growth efficiency of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, while FDI has a significant inhibitory effect on economic growth efficiency.The coefficient of interaction between financial development and FDI is significantly positive, indicating that FDI further strengthens the promotion of financial development to the efficiency of economic growth,while the level of financial development is an important environmental factor for FDI spillovers to play a role. In terms of regions, the overall regression results of the downstream regions and the Yangtze River Economic Belt are more consistent; the financial development and FDI in the middle have a restraining effect on economic growth efficiency, and whether the they can promote the economic growth efficiency depends on eath other.The financial development and FDI in the upstream areas promote the improvement of economic efficiency, and when the financial deepening exceeds a certain level, it is more helpful for FDI to play the positive role of spillover effect on the economic growth efficiency.
Based on the balance panel data of 108 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,the paper uses the system GMM to empirically test the impact of financial development and foreign direct investment on economic growth efficiency. The results show that, on the whole, financial development significantly promotes the economic growth efficiency of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, while FDI has a significant inhibitory effect on economic growth efficiency.The coefficient of interaction between financial development and FDI is significantly positive, indicating that FDI further strengthens the promotion of financial development to the efficiency of economic growth,while the level of financial development is an important environmental factor for FDI spillovers to play a role. In terms of regions, the overall regression results of the downstream regions and the Yangtze River Economic Belt are more consistent; the financial development and FDI in the middle have a restraining effect on economic growth efficiency, and whether the they can promote the economic growth efficiency depends on eath other.The financial development and FDI in the upstream areas promote the improvement of economic efficiency, and when the financial deepening exceeds a certain level, it is more helpful for FDI to play the positive role of spillover effect on the economic growth efficiency.
引文
[1]BECK T,LEVIN R,LOAYZA N.Finance and the sources of growth[J].Journal of Financial Econommics,2000,58(1-2):261-300.
[2]CALDERON C,LIU L.The direction of causality between financial development and economic growth[J].Journal of Development Economics,2003,72(1):321-334.
[3]RIOJA F,VALEV N.Finance and the sources of growth at various stages of economic development[J]. Economic Inquiery,2004,42(1):127-140.
[4]HUANG H C,LIN S C.Non-linear finance-growth nexus[J].Economics of Transition,2009,17(3):439-466.
[5]赵勇,雷达.金融发展与经济增长:生产率促进抑或资本形成[J].世界经济,2010(2):37-50.
[6]ARCAND J L,BERKES E,PANIZZA U.Too much finance?[J].Journal of Economic Growth,2015,20(2):105-148.
[7]邹伟,凌江怀.政府干预、地方金融发展与经济增长[J].当代财经,2018(4):14-24.
[8]魏后凯.外商直接投资对中国区域经济增长的影响[J].经济研究,2002(4):19-26.
[9] CHOE J I.Do Foreign direct investment and gross domestic investment promote economic growth?[J].Review of Development Economics,2003,7(1):44-57.
[10] MAH J S.Foreign direct investment inflows and economics growth of China[J].Journal of Policy Modeling,2010.32(1):155-158.
[11]魏立佳,李媛.外商直接投资与中国省域经济增长的动态关系研究——基于1988~2008省际面板数据的实证分析[J].首都经济贸易大学学报,2011(2):52-61.
[12]舒彤等.供应链体系中外商直接投资对中国经济增长的影响与实证[J].系统工程理论与实践,2014(2):282-290.
[13]ALFARO L,AREEDAM C,SEBNEM K 0,SELIN S.FDI and economic growth:the role of local financial market[J]. Journal of International Economics,2004,64(1):89-112.
[14]孙力军.金融发展、FDI与经济增长[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008(1):3-14.
[15] JULIAN D,ERIC N,PETER N.Financial market development in host and source countries and its effects on bilateral FDI[J].Kiel Working Papers,2016(12):1-37.
[16]赵奇伟.金融发展、外商直接投资与资本配置效率[J].财经问题研究,2010(9):47-51.
[17]李青原,李江冰,江春等.金融发展与地区实体经济资本配置效率——来自省级工业行业数据的证据[J].经济学(季刊),2013(2):527-548.
[18]MUHAMMAD N,ISLAM A R M,MARASHDEH H A.Financial development and economic growth:an empirical evidence from the GCC countries using static and dynamic panel data[J] Journal of Economics and Finance,2016,40(4):773-791.
[19]黄宪,黄彤彤.论中国的“金融超发展”[J].金融研究,2017(2):26-41.
[20]杨有才.金融发展与经济增长——基于我国金融发展门槛变量的分析[J].金融研究,2014(2):59-71.
[21]孙博文.市场一体化是否有助于降低污染排放?——基于长江经济带城市面板数据的实证分析[J].环境经济研究,2018(1):37-56.
[22]黎欢,龚六堂.金融发展、研发创新与经济增长[J].世界经济文汇,2014(2):1-16.
[23]石卫星,刘满成.基于中印的人力资本与外商直接投资关系对比研究——基于卢卡斯悖论的原因探析[J].宏观经济研究,2017(4):168-175.
[24]陈乐,李郇,姚尧等.人口集聚对中国城市经济增长的影响[J].地理学报,2018(6):1107-1120.
[25]杜龙政,林润辉.对外直接投资、逆向技术溢出与省域创新能力——基于中国省际面板数据的门槛回归分析[J].中国软科学,2018(1):149-162.
[26]周斌,朱桂宾,毛德勇,等.互联网金融真的能够影响经济增长吗?[J].经济与管理研究,2017(9):45-53.
[27]张杰,高德步.金融发展与创新:来自中国的证据与解释[J].产业经济研究,2017(3):43-57.
[28]粟勤,张娜.金融包容与银行业机构:文献述评与展望[J].北京工商大学学报(社会科学版),2017(2):82-88.
(1)长江经济带上游地区(西部)界定为渝川黔滇四省市,包括重庆、成都、自贡、攀枝花、泸州、德阳、绵阳、广元、遂宁、内江、乐山、南充、眉山、宜宾、广安、达州、雅安、巴中、资阳、贵阳、六盘水、遵义、安顺、昆明、曲靖、玉溪、保山、昭通、丽江、普洱(思茅)、临沧等31个城市;将中游地区(中部)界定为赣鄂湘三省,包括南昌、景德镇、萍乡、九江、新余、鹰潭、赣州、吉安、宜春、抚州、上饶、武汉、黄石、十堰、宜昌、襄阳、鄂州、荆门、孝感、荆州、黄冈、咸宁、随州、长沙、株洲、湘潭、衡阳、邵阳、岳阳、常德、张家界、益阳、郴州、永州、怀化以及娄底等36个城市;将下游地区(东部)界定为沪苏浙皖四省市,包括上海、南京、无锡、徐州、常州、苏州、南通、连云港、淮安、盐城、扬州、镇江、泰州、宿迁、杭州、宁波、温州、嘉兴、湖州、绍兴、金华、衢州、舟山、台州、丽水、合肥、芜湖、蚌埠、淮南、马鞍山、淮北、铜陵、安庆、黄山、滁州、阜阳、宿州、六安、亳州、池州以及宜城等41个城市。
(1)在加入金融发展与FDI的交互项时,为了降低多重共线性的影响,对相应数据采取了去均值处理。
(1)由于金融发展水平、FDI及二者的交互项做了去均值处理,因此计算的门槛值可能低于实际值,但其经济学和政策意义远比精确计算的值重要。
[2]CALDERON C,LIU L.The direction of causality between financial development and economic growth[J].Journal of Development Economics,2003,72(1):321-334.
[3]RIOJA F,VALEV N.Finance and the sources of growth at various stages of economic development[J]. Economic Inquiery,2004,42(1):127-140.
[4]HUANG H C,LIN S C.Non-linear finance-growth nexus[J].Economics of Transition,2009,17(3):439-466.
[5]赵勇,雷达.金融发展与经济增长:生产率促进抑或资本形成[J].世界经济,2010(2):37-50.
[6]ARCAND J L,BERKES E,PANIZZA U.Too much finance?[J].Journal of Economic Growth,2015,20(2):105-148.
[7]邹伟,凌江怀.政府干预、地方金融发展与经济增长[J].当代财经,2018(4):14-24.
[8]魏后凯.外商直接投资对中国区域经济增长的影响[J].经济研究,2002(4):19-26.
[9] CHOE J I.Do Foreign direct investment and gross domestic investment promote economic growth?[J].Review of Development Economics,2003,7(1):44-57.
[10] MAH J S.Foreign direct investment inflows and economics growth of China[J].Journal of Policy Modeling,2010.32(1):155-158.
[11]魏立佳,李媛.外商直接投资与中国省域经济增长的动态关系研究——基于1988~2008省际面板数据的实证分析[J].首都经济贸易大学学报,2011(2):52-61.
[12]舒彤等.供应链体系中外商直接投资对中国经济增长的影响与实证[J].系统工程理论与实践,2014(2):282-290.
[13]ALFARO L,AREEDAM C,SEBNEM K 0,SELIN S.FDI and economic growth:the role of local financial market[J]. Journal of International Economics,2004,64(1):89-112.
[14]孙力军.金融发展、FDI与经济增长[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008(1):3-14.
[15] JULIAN D,ERIC N,PETER N.Financial market development in host and source countries and its effects on bilateral FDI[J].Kiel Working Papers,2016(12):1-37.
[16]赵奇伟.金融发展、外商直接投资与资本配置效率[J].财经问题研究,2010(9):47-51.
[17]李青原,李江冰,江春等.金融发展与地区实体经济资本配置效率——来自省级工业行业数据的证据[J].经济学(季刊),2013(2):527-548.
[18]MUHAMMAD N,ISLAM A R M,MARASHDEH H A.Financial development and economic growth:an empirical evidence from the GCC countries using static and dynamic panel data[J] Journal of Economics and Finance,2016,40(4):773-791.
[19]黄宪,黄彤彤.论中国的“金融超发展”[J].金融研究,2017(2):26-41.
[20]杨有才.金融发展与经济增长——基于我国金融发展门槛变量的分析[J].金融研究,2014(2):59-71.
[21]孙博文.市场一体化是否有助于降低污染排放?——基于长江经济带城市面板数据的实证分析[J].环境经济研究,2018(1):37-56.
[22]黎欢,龚六堂.金融发展、研发创新与经济增长[J].世界经济文汇,2014(2):1-16.
[23]石卫星,刘满成.基于中印的人力资本与外商直接投资关系对比研究——基于卢卡斯悖论的原因探析[J].宏观经济研究,2017(4):168-175.
[24]陈乐,李郇,姚尧等.人口集聚对中国城市经济增长的影响[J].地理学报,2018(6):1107-1120.
[25]杜龙政,林润辉.对外直接投资、逆向技术溢出与省域创新能力——基于中国省际面板数据的门槛回归分析[J].中国软科学,2018(1):149-162.
[26]周斌,朱桂宾,毛德勇,等.互联网金融真的能够影响经济增长吗?[J].经济与管理研究,2017(9):45-53.
[27]张杰,高德步.金融发展与创新:来自中国的证据与解释[J].产业经济研究,2017(3):43-57.
[28]粟勤,张娜.金融包容与银行业机构:文献述评与展望[J].北京工商大学学报(社会科学版),2017(2):82-88.
(1)长江经济带上游地区(西部)界定为渝川黔滇四省市,包括重庆、成都、自贡、攀枝花、泸州、德阳、绵阳、广元、遂宁、内江、乐山、南充、眉山、宜宾、广安、达州、雅安、巴中、资阳、贵阳、六盘水、遵义、安顺、昆明、曲靖、玉溪、保山、昭通、丽江、普洱(思茅)、临沧等31个城市;将中游地区(中部)界定为赣鄂湘三省,包括南昌、景德镇、萍乡、九江、新余、鹰潭、赣州、吉安、宜春、抚州、上饶、武汉、黄石、十堰、宜昌、襄阳、鄂州、荆门、孝感、荆州、黄冈、咸宁、随州、长沙、株洲、湘潭、衡阳、邵阳、岳阳、常德、张家界、益阳、郴州、永州、怀化以及娄底等36个城市;将下游地区(东部)界定为沪苏浙皖四省市,包括上海、南京、无锡、徐州、常州、苏州、南通、连云港、淮安、盐城、扬州、镇江、泰州、宿迁、杭州、宁波、温州、嘉兴、湖州、绍兴、金华、衢州、舟山、台州、丽水、合肥、芜湖、蚌埠、淮南、马鞍山、淮北、铜陵、安庆、黄山、滁州、阜阳、宿州、六安、亳州、池州以及宜城等41个城市。
(1)在加入金融发展与FDI的交互项时,为了降低多重共线性的影响,对相应数据采取了去均值处理。
(1)由于金融发展水平、FDI及二者的交互项做了去均值处理,因此计算的门槛值可能低于实际值,但其经济学和政策意义远比精确计算的值重要。