中国交通事故伤亡人数影响因素的实证分析

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英文篇名：Factors Affecting China Traffic Accident Casualties: An Empirical Study 作者：任英 ; 彭红星 英文作者：REN Ying1,PENG Hong-xing2(1.School of Economics and Management,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;2.School of Accountancy,Central University of Finance Economics,Beijing 100081,China) 关键词：交通事故 ; 伤亡人数 ; 面板数据 英文关键词：traffic accidents;number of casualties;panel data 中文刊名：YUCE 英文刊名：Forecasting 机构：北京交通大学经济管理学院;中央财经大学会计学院; 出版日期：2013-05-27 出版单位：预测 年：2013 期：v.32;No.192 基金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41171113) 语种：中文; 页：YUCE201303002 页数：7 CN：03 ISSN：34-1013/N 分类号：3-9

摘要

本文采用2004～2010年中国交通事故面板数据,以固定效应模型分析影响中国交通事故死亡人数的宏观和微观因素。研究表明,各地区的经济发展水平、交通基础设施、医疗卫生条件和交通法规完善程度与道路交通事故伤亡率呈反向变动;随着机动车密度上升,道路交通事故伤亡率呈下降趋势;驾驶人行为是影响中国道路交通事故死亡的首要因素,而人口结构也是影响道路交通事故人员伤亡率的重要因素之一。
        Based on the Chinese traffic accident data from 2004 to 2010,we establish the fixed panel model to analyze the factors affecting the number of traffic casualties in China.We put 31 provinces into three groups: eastern,central,and west.Our analysis shows that there is a reverse relationship between economic development level and fatalities.The level of economic development,transportation infrastructure,health conditions and traffic regulations perfecting level have an negative influence on the road traffic accident casualty rate.With the motor vehicle density increasing,casualty rate of road traffic accidents population goes down.We find that drivers' behavior is the most important factors affecting road traffic casualties in China.Moreover,population structure is an important factor affecting the rate of road traffic accident casualties.

引文

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