辽西北地区干旱时空变化特征分析
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摘要
利用辽西北地区14个气象站与水文站1971年-2010年的基础数据,得到降水量距平值、连续无雨日数、河道来水量距平值和相对湿润度,并以这四项指标为基础,利用可变模糊评价法得到辽西北地区综合干旱级别特征值,再结合线性倾向估计法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验与反距离权重法对辽西北地区的气象、水文综合干旱时空分布特征进行分析。结果表明:辽西北整体旱情呈显著加重趋势,1971年-1980年以轻度干旱为主,旱情较严重的时期为20世纪80年代后,1981年-1990年干旱程度最为严重,1980年-2010年是重度干旱高发期,但特大干旱少有发生;辽西北东北部和西南部地区旱情较为严重,且随时间变化呈现出加重趋势,而中部地区干旱较轻,因此抗旱减灾的重点应集中在该区的东北部和西南部地区。
Based on the basic data of 1971-2010 at 14meteorological stations in northwestern Liaoning province,this paper selected four indexes(the precipitation anomaly,number of consecutive days without rain,river runoff anomaly,and relative humidity),and obtained the comprehensive drought level characteristic value of northwestern Liaoning province using the variable fuzzy evaluation method.Then it used the linear trend estimation method and Mann-Kendall test method to analyze the trend of drought and used the IDW method to analyze the spatial variation characteristics of comprehensive drought.The results show that the drought is growing significantly more serious.During 1971-1980,the drought was mostly mild,but was aggravated after the 1980 s,and became the most serious during 1981-1990.The period of 1980-2010 witnessed a high incidence of severe droughts but few extremely severe droughts.The drought was more serious and was aggravated with time in the northeast and southwest of northwestern Liaoning province,but was less serious in the central region.Therefore,drought resistance and disaster reduction efforts should be mainly concentrated on the northeast and southwest of the region.
Based on the basic data of 1971-2010 at 14meteorological stations in northwestern Liaoning province,this paper selected four indexes(the precipitation anomaly,number of consecutive days without rain,river runoff anomaly,and relative humidity),and obtained the comprehensive drought level characteristic value of northwestern Liaoning province using the variable fuzzy evaluation method.Then it used the linear trend estimation method and Mann-Kendall test method to analyze the trend of drought and used the IDW method to analyze the spatial variation characteristics of comprehensive drought.The results show that the drought is growing significantly more serious.During 1971-1980,the drought was mostly mild,but was aggravated after the 1980 s,and became the most serious during 1981-1990.The period of 1980-2010 witnessed a high incidence of severe droughts but few extremely severe droughts.The drought was more serious and was aggravated with time in the northeast and southwest of northwestern Liaoning province,but was less serious in the central region.Therefore,drought resistance and disaster reduction efforts should be mainly concentrated on the northeast and southwest of the region.
引文
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[13]雷江群,黄强.基于可变模糊评价法的渭河流域综合干旱分区研究[J].水利学报,2014,45(5):574-584.(LEI Jiang-qun,HUANG Qiang.Variable fuzzy evaluation on comprehensive divisions of drought in the Wei River basin[J].Journal of hydraulic engineering,2014,45(5):574-584.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.2014.05.009
[14]曹永强,李香云,马静,等.基于可变模糊算法的大连市农业干旱风险评价[J].资源科学,2011(5):983-988.(CAO Yong-qiang,LI Xiang-yun,MA Jing,et al.Agricultural drought risk evaluation in Dalian based on the variable fuzzy method[J].Resources Science,2011(5):983-988.(in Chinese))
[15]GB/T 20481-2006.气象干旱等级[S].(GB/T 20481-2006.Meteorological Drought Grade[S].(in Chinese))
[16]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,1999.(WEI Feng-ying.The statistical diagnosis and prediction technology of modern climate[M].Beijing:Meteorological Press1999:63-65.(in Chinese))
[17]汤国安,杨昕.地理信息系统空间分析实验教程[M].北京:科学出版社,2012.(TANG Guo-an,YANG Xin.The experimental tutorial of Geographic information system spatial analysis[M].Beijing:China:Science Press.2012.(in Chinese))
[18]蔡福,于慧波,矫玲玲,等.降水要素空间插值精度的比较-以东北地区为例[J].资源科学,2006,28(6):73-79.(CAI Fu,YU Hui-bo,JIAO Ling-ling,et al.Comparison of precision of spatial interpolation of precipitation factors:A case study in northeastern China[J].Resources Science,2006,28(6):73-79.(in Chinese))
[19]孔云峰,仝文伟.降雨量地面观测数据空间探索与插值方法探讨[J].地理研究,2008,27(5):1097-1108.(KONG Yun-feng,TONG Wen-wei.Spatial exploration and interpolation of the surface precipitation data[J].Geographical Research,2008,27(5):1097-1108.(in Chinese))
[20]中华人民共和国农业部.新中国农业统计60年[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2009.(The Ministry of Agriculture of the People′s Republic of China.Agricultural Statistics of China in60Years[M].Beijing,China:China Agriculture Press,2009.(in Chinese))
[2]袁云,李栋梁,安迪.基于标准化降水指数的中国冬季干旱分区及气候特征[J].中国沙漠,2010(4):917-925.(YUAN Yun,LI Dong-liang,AN Di.Winter aridity division in China based on standardized precipitation index and circulation characteristics[J].Journal of Desert Research,2010(4):917-925.(in Chinese))
[3]梁忠民,郦建强,常文娟,等.抗旱能力研究理论框架[J].南水北调与水利科技,2013(1):23-28.(LIANG Zhong-min,LI Jian-qiang,CHANG Wen-juan,et al.Research on the theoretical framework of drought resistance capacity[J].South-toNorth Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2013(1):23-28.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1201.2013.01023
[4]倪深海,顾颖,王会容.中国农业干旱脆弱性分区研究[J].水科学进展,2005(5):705-709.(NI Shen-hai,GU Ying,WANG Hui-rong.Study on frangibility zoning of agricultural drought in China[J].Advances in water science,2005(5):705-709.(in Chinese))DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2005.05.016
[5]韩兰英,张强,姚玉璧,等.近60年中国西南地区干旱灾害规律与成因[J].地理学报,2014(5):632-639.(HAN Lan-ying,ZHANG Qiang,YAO Yu-bi,et al Characteristics and origins of drought disasters in Southwest China in nearly 60years[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2014(5):632-639.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11821/dlxb201405006
[6]徐建文,居辉,刘勤,等.黄淮海地区干旱变化特征及其对气候变化的响应[J].生态学报,2014(2):460-470.(XUN Jian-wen,JU Hui,LIU Qin,et al.Variation of drought and regional response to climate change in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2014(2):460-470.(in Chinese))DOI:10.5846/stxb201301240148
[7]沈彦军,李红军,雷玉平.干旱指数应用研究综述[J].南水北调与水利科技,2013(4):128-133,186.(SHEN Yan-jun,LI Hong-jun,LEI Yu-ping.Research review on application of drought index[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2013(4):128-133,186.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1201.2013.04128
[8]葛岩,李趋,褚丽妹,等.基于修正Z指数辽西北地区干旱时空特性分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2013(5):133-136.(GE Yan,LI Qu,CHU Li-mei,et al.Temporal and spatial analysis on drought events in northwest of Liaoning based on adjusted Zindex[J].Journal of Irrigation and Drainage,2013(5):133-136.(in Chinese))
[9]董婷婷.辽西北干旱监测预警与评估系统建设研究[J].中国防汛抗旱,2014(3):41-43.(DONG Ting-ting.Construction of Liaoning Northwest drought monitoring and early warning and assessment system[J].China Flood and Drought Management,2014(3):41-43.(in Chinese))
[10]张继权,严登华,王春乙,等.辽西北地区农业干旱灾害风险评价与风险区划研究[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2012(3):300-306.(ZHANG Ji-quan,YAN Deng-hua,WANG Chun-yi,et al.A study on risk assessment and risk regionalization of agricultural drought disaster in Northwestern Regions of Liaoning Province[J].Journal of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Engineering,2012(3):300-306.(in Chinese))
[11]路广平,郁凌峰,梁立章.2009年辽西北地区特大干旱的分析[J].东北水利水电,2011(10):50-51.(LU Guang-ping,YU Ling-feng,LIANG Li-zhang.Analysis of the severe drought in the northwest of Liaoning Province in 2009[J].Water Resource&Hydropower of Northeast China,2011(10):50-51.(in Chinese))DOI:10.14124/j.cnki.dbslsd22-1097.2011.10.008
[12]陈守煜.工程模糊集理论与应用[M].北京;国防工业出版社,1998.(CHEN Shou-yi.Engineering fuzzy set theory and application[M].Beijing,China:National Defense Industry Presss,1998.(in Chinese))
[13]雷江群,黄强.基于可变模糊评价法的渭河流域综合干旱分区研究[J].水利学报,2014,45(5):574-584.(LEI Jiang-qun,HUANG Qiang.Variable fuzzy evaluation on comprehensive divisions of drought in the Wei River basin[J].Journal of hydraulic engineering,2014,45(5):574-584.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.2014.05.009
[14]曹永强,李香云,马静,等.基于可变模糊算法的大连市农业干旱风险评价[J].资源科学,2011(5):983-988.(CAO Yong-qiang,LI Xiang-yun,MA Jing,et al.Agricultural drought risk evaluation in Dalian based on the variable fuzzy method[J].Resources Science,2011(5):983-988.(in Chinese))
[15]GB/T 20481-2006.气象干旱等级[S].(GB/T 20481-2006.Meteorological Drought Grade[S].(in Chinese))
[16]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,1999.(WEI Feng-ying.The statistical diagnosis and prediction technology of modern climate[M].Beijing:Meteorological Press1999:63-65.(in Chinese))
[17]汤国安,杨昕.地理信息系统空间分析实验教程[M].北京:科学出版社,2012.(TANG Guo-an,YANG Xin.The experimental tutorial of Geographic information system spatial analysis[M].Beijing:China:Science Press.2012.(in Chinese))
[18]蔡福,于慧波,矫玲玲,等.降水要素空间插值精度的比较-以东北地区为例[J].资源科学,2006,28(6):73-79.(CAI Fu,YU Hui-bo,JIAO Ling-ling,et al.Comparison of precision of spatial interpolation of precipitation factors:A case study in northeastern China[J].Resources Science,2006,28(6):73-79.(in Chinese))
[19]孔云峰,仝文伟.降雨量地面观测数据空间探索与插值方法探讨[J].地理研究,2008,27(5):1097-1108.(KONG Yun-feng,TONG Wen-wei.Spatial exploration and interpolation of the surface precipitation data[J].Geographical Research,2008,27(5):1097-1108.(in Chinese))
[20]中华人民共和国农业部.新中国农业统计60年[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2009.(The Ministry of Agriculture of the People′s Republic of China.Agricultural Statistics of China in60Years[M].Beijing,China:China Agriculture Press,2009.(in Chinese))