ECMWF极端天气指数在新疆强降水预报中的检验评估
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摘要
使用2015年10月—2018年9月欧洲中期天气预报中心集合预报系统(ECMWF EPS)逐日降水极端天气指数(EFI)预报资料,分析新疆区域降水EFI产品与强降水的对应关系并得到预报阈值。结果表明:预报的EFI与实况降水量存在正相关关系,随着降水量增加,EFI预报结果具有线性增加趋势,说明EFI对强降水有一定的指示意义。各量级降水预报的最高TS评分随着预报时效的增加而减小,且随着降水量等级的增大而减小。不同季节暴量降水发生站次为夏季最多,冬季最少,对应的EFI阈值大都在0.4～0.6,夏季EFI值范围在0.2～0.7,夏季更易发生暴量降水。随着预报时效增加,暴量降水发生站点频次最多所对应的EFI值逐渐减小。随着降水量级增加,空报率减小幅度不大,但漏报率增加。
Based on the daily precipitation extreme forecast index(EFI) from ECMWF global ensemble prediction system(EPS) from October 2015 to September 2018, the relationship between EFI and severe precipitation was analyzed, and the predicted threshold was obtained. Results show a positive correlation between EFI and observed precipitation. With the increase of precipitation,EFI shows a linear increasing trend, which indicates that EFI has a certain guiding significance for heavy precipitation. The maximum threat score(TS)of each magnitude precipitation decreases with the increase of advanced forecast time, also decreases with the increase of precipitation intensity.The frequency of rainstorm differ in different seasons, most in summer and least in winter, and the corresponding EFI threshold almost ranges from 0.4～0.6, and 0.2～0.7 in summer. Rainstorm is more likely to occur in summer. With the increase of advanced forecast time, the EFI value corresponding to the station with most rainstorms decreases gradually. With the increase of precipitation magnitude, the rate of vacancy forecast decreases slightly, but the rate of missing forecast increases.
Based on the daily precipitation extreme forecast index(EFI) from ECMWF global ensemble prediction system(EPS) from October 2015 to September 2018, the relationship between EFI and severe precipitation was analyzed, and the predicted threshold was obtained. Results show a positive correlation between EFI and observed precipitation. With the increase of precipitation,EFI shows a linear increasing trend, which indicates that EFI has a certain guiding significance for heavy precipitation. The maximum threat score(TS)of each magnitude precipitation decreases with the increase of advanced forecast time, also decreases with the increase of precipitation intensity.The frequency of rainstorm differ in different seasons, most in summer and least in winter, and the corresponding EFI threshold almost ranges from 0.4～0.6, and 0.2～0.7 in summer. Rainstorm is more likely to occur in summer. With the increase of advanced forecast time, the EFI value corresponding to the station with most rainstorms decreases gradually. With the increase of precipitation magnitude, the rate of vacancy forecast decreases slightly, but the rate of missing forecast increases.
引文
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[25]潘留杰,张宏芳,陈小婷,等.ECMWF集合预报在中国中部地区的降水概率预报性能评估[J].高原气象,2017,36(1):138-147.
[26]李曼,琚陈相,辛渝,等.2016年夏季DOGRAFS系统站点24h降水量级预报检验[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2018,12(2):15-21.
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[2]杨莲梅.新疆极端降水的气候变化[J].地理学报,2003,58(4):577-583.
[3]张俊兰,杨霞.2015年12月新疆极端暴雪天气过程分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2018,12(5):1-9.
[4]努尔比亚·吐尼牙孜,杨利鸿,米日古丽,等.南疆西部一次突发极端暴雨成因分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2017,11(6):75-82.
[5]许婷婷,张云惠,于碧馨,等.2015年12月乌鲁木齐极端暴雪成因分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2017,11(5):23-29.
[6]博尔楠,恰里哈尔,阿依敏,等.近54年阿勒泰地区夏季极端降水事件气候特征[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2016,10(4):39-46.
[7]赵丽,韩雪云,杨青.近50a西北干旱区极端降水的时空变化特征[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2016,10(1):19-26.
[8]刘琳,陈静.新疆地区近50年来极端降水事件年内非均匀特征分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2013,7(1):53-59.
[9]张家宝,邓子凤.新疆降水概论[M].北京:气象出版社,1987.
[10]张云惠,陈春艳,杨莲梅,等.南疆西部一次罕见暴雨过程的成因分析[J].高原气象,2013,32(1):191-200.
[11]陈春艳,秦贺,唐冶,等.2012年3月新疆大范围暴雨雪天气诊断分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2014,6(2):12-18.
[12]张俊兰,魏荣庆,杨柳.2013年南疆两场罕见暴雨落区和强度的对比分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2014,8(5):1-9.
[13]陈静,陈德辉,颜宏.集合数值预报发展与研究进展[J].应用气象学报,2002,13(4):497-507.
[14]Lalaurette F.Early detection of abnormal weather conditions using a probabilistic extreme forecast index[J].Roy Meteor Soc,2003,129(594):3037-3057.
[15]Richardson D S,Bidlot J,Ferranti L,et al.Verification statistics and evalutions of ECMWF forecasts in 2010-2011[R].England:ECMWF,2011:654.
[16]董全,代刊,陶亦为.ECMWF集合预报的极端气温预报产品应用和检验[J].天气预报,2016,8(4):41-51.
[17]董全,代刊,陶亦为,等.基于ECMWF集合预报的极端天气预报产品应用和检验[J].气象,2017,43(9):1095-1109.
[18]夏凡,陈静.基于T213集合预报的极端天气预报指数及温度预报应用试验[J].气象,2012,38(12):1492-1501.
[19]刘琳,陈静,程龙,等.基于集合预报的中国极端强降水预报方法研究[J].气象学报,2013,71(5):853-866.
[20]陶亦为,代刊,董全.2016年1月寒潮天气过程极端性分析及集合预报检验[J].气象,2017,43(10),1176-1185.
[21]吴剑坤,高丽,乔林,等.基于T213集合预报的中国极端温度预报方法研究[J].气象科学,2015,35(4):438-444.
[22]朱鹏飞,邱学兴,王东勇,等.ECMWF降水极端天气指数在安徽省的应用评估[J].暴雨灾害,2015,34(4):316-323.
[23]陈鹤,唐杰.ECMWF极端天气指数产品在湖南降水预报中的评估[J].河南科学,2018,36(8):1268-1273.
[24]龙柯吉,陈朝平,郭旭,等.基于ECMWF极端降水天气指数的四川盆地暴雨预报研究[J].高原山地气象研究,2016,36(2):30-35.
[25]潘留杰,张宏芳,陈小婷,等.ECMWF集合预报在中国中部地区的降水概率预报性能评估[J].高原气象,2017,36(1):138-147.
[26]李曼,琚陈相,辛渝,等.2016年夏季DOGRAFS系统站点24h降水量级预报检验[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2018,12(2):15-21.
[27]李博渊,王小号,周鸿奎,等.ECMWF细网格TP产品在北疆降雪天气中的预报性能检验[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2016,10(6):41-48.
[28]杜娟,李曼,辛渝,等.2017年乌鲁木齐区域数值预报业务系统预报性能检验和评估[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2018,12(6):49-57.
[29]贾丽红,张慧岚,肖开提·多莱特,等.T639数值产品对影响新疆主要系统的预报检验评估[J].气象,2012,38(8):971-976.
[30]Ebert E.Fuzzy verification of high-resolution gridded forecasts:A review and proposed framework[J].Meteor Appl,2008,15:51-64.