2018年12号热带低压奇异路径分析
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摘要
分析2018年第12号热带低压的奇异路径及其在广西强降雨落区产生的原因,分析表明:(1)12号热带低压路径为逆时针旋转,主要是由于副热带高压位置偏北,引导气流偏弱,低压先受到11号热带低压的互旋作用而产生了逆时针旋转的路径,登陆后由于11号热带低压减弱,对其影响也逐渐减弱,之后受到自身内力作用转向西北方向移动。(2)广西上空的热力和水汽条件均有利于对流发展,但桂东南由于缺少有利的动力条件和触发条件,没有强降雨产生。由于低压中心随高度向西南方向倾斜,导致垂直运动随低压中心向西南倾斜,使低压西南方处于大尺度上升运动处。而沿海和桂南一带处于偏北风和偏西风的辐合处,触发对流产生。强降雨云团在沿海被触发并发展,在低压西南方得到进一步发展,并随着低压转向西北方向移动,在广西的南部和中西部产生了强降水。
This paper analyses the singular path of Tropical Low No. 12 in 2018 and the causes of its strong rainfall in Guangxi.The analysis shows that(1) the path of Tropical Low No. 12 rotates counterclockwise, mainly because the position of subtropical high is northward and the guiding airflow is weak. The anticlockwise rotation path was generated by the interaction of Tropical Low No.11.After landing, the influence of No. 11 was gradually weakened,so No.12 moved northwest by its internal force after 5 a.m. on the 24 th.(2) The thermal and water vapor conditions over Guangxi are conducive to the development of convection, but there is no strong rainfall in southeastern Guangxi due to the lack of favorable dynamic and triggering conditions.Because the low-pressure center inclined to the southwest with the height, the vertical motion inclined to the southwest with the low-pressure center, which made the southwest of the low-pressure in a large-scale upward motion.The coastal area and southern Guangxi were at the convergence of northerly and westerly winds, which triggered the convection.Strong rainfall clouds were triggered and developed along the coast, and further developed in the favorable large-scale ascending motion. With the low pressure shifting to the northwest direction, heavy rainfall occurred in southern, central and western Guangxi.
This paper analyses the singular path of Tropical Low No. 12 in 2018 and the causes of its strong rainfall in Guangxi.The analysis shows that(1) the path of Tropical Low No. 12 rotates counterclockwise, mainly because the position of subtropical high is northward and the guiding airflow is weak. The anticlockwise rotation path was generated by the interaction of Tropical Low No.11.After landing, the influence of No. 11 was gradually weakened,so No.12 moved northwest by its internal force after 5 a.m. on the 24 th.(2) The thermal and water vapor conditions over Guangxi are conducive to the development of convection, but there is no strong rainfall in southeastern Guangxi due to the lack of favorable dynamic and triggering conditions.Because the low-pressure center inclined to the southwest with the height, the vertical motion inclined to the southwest with the low-pressure center, which made the southwest of the low-pressure in a large-scale upward motion.The coastal area and southern Guangxi were at the convergence of northerly and westerly winds, which triggered the convection.Strong rainfall clouds were triggered and developed along the coast, and further developed in the favorable large-scale ascending motion. With the low pressure shifting to the northwest direction, heavy rainfall occurred in southern, central and western Guangxi.
引文
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[3]胡端英,梁域,余家材,等.“巨爵”、“韦森特”偏西路径台风暴雨对比分析[J].气象研究与应用,2013,34(1):1-3.
[4]陈劲,杨玺,汤振鹏.登陆广东的台风强度和路径特征分析[J].气象研究与应用,2018,39(3):35-37.
[5]唐文,肖志祥,苏洵,等.两个偏北路径影响广西台风的降水差异分析[J].气象研究与应用,2018,39(2):1-6.
[6]余锦华,唐家翔,戴雨涵,等.我国台风路径业务预报误差及成因分析[J].气象,2012,38(6):695-700.
[7]卢建壮,梁俊聪.热带风暴“北冕”异常路径分析[J].气象研究与应用,2008,29(2):16-17.
[8]蔡晶,莫贤清,陈星聪,等.“鲇鱼”异常路径分析[J].气象研究与应用,2010,31(2):120-121.
[9]程正泉,张东.“狮子山”奇异路径及业务预报着眼点的初步分析[J].广东气象,2011,33(4):1-6.
[10]方宇凌,夏冠聪,林泽金,等.1208号台风“韦森特”异常路径及其对珠三角南部暴雨影响成因分析[J].气象研究与应用,2013,34(4):108-109.
[11]蒋静,黄滢,凌宗良,等.1223号台风“山神”转向成因分析[J].气象研究与应用,2013,34(4):9-13.
[12]陈联寿,孟智勇.我国热带气旋研究十年进展[J].大气科学,2001,(3):420-432.
[13]朱乾根,林锦瑞,寿绍文.天气学原理和方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2010:537.