习惯形成下消费理性的理论探讨与实证检验
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摘要
习惯形成类似于一种谨慎行为,它制约消费增长,而理性消费者的习惯形成对消费增长的抑制效应更强。基于习惯形成理论框架下提出本研究范围内消费理性的含义与检验标准,并实证考察中国城乡居民的消费理性,以此为缓解居民习惯形成、促进消费增长的政策建议提供依据。研究结果显示:比较来看,在我国经济转轨后与着力改善供求失衡的经济结构前的1995-2014年这20年间,城镇居民消费具有理性,而农村居民消费总体不具有理性。这一结论也为近年来消费增长缓慢、居民对总需求政策不敏感做出了一种解释。
Habit formation is similar to a prudent consuming behavior and restricts consumption growth,but a rational consumer's habit formation has a stronger inhibitory effect on consumption growth. Based on the theory of habit formation, this paper puts forward the definition and test criteria for consumption rationality in the scope of this study, and empirically examines urban and rural residents' consuming behavior in China,in order to provide policy proposals for alleviating the residents' habits and promoting the growth of consumption. The results show that the consumption of urban residents is rational, while their counterparts of rural residents' consumption is irrational in the 20 years during 1995-2014, that is, after China's transition economy and before improving the imbalance structure between supply and demand, which explains the slow increase of consumption and residents' insensitivity to gross demand.
Habit formation is similar to a prudent consuming behavior and restricts consumption growth,but a rational consumer's habit formation has a stronger inhibitory effect on consumption growth. Based on the theory of habit formation, this paper puts forward the definition and test criteria for consumption rationality in the scope of this study, and empirically examines urban and rural residents' consuming behavior in China,in order to provide policy proposals for alleviating the residents' habits and promoting the growth of consumption. The results show that the consumption of urban residents is rational, while their counterparts of rural residents' consumption is irrational in the 20 years during 1995-2014, that is, after China's transition economy and before improving the imbalance structure between supply and demand, which explains the slow increase of consumption and residents' insensitivity to gross demand.
引文
[1]Duesenberry,J.S.Income,Saving and Theory of Consumer Behavior[M].Harvard University press,1949.
[2][14]Ryder,J.and G.Heal.Optimal Growth with Intertemporally Dependent Preferences[J].Review of Economics Studies,1973(40):1-31.
[3]Deaton,A.Understanding Consumption[M].Oxford University Press,1992.
[4]Carroll,C.,G.Overland and D.Weil.Comparison Utility in a Growth Mode[J].Journal of Economic Growth.1997(2):339-367.
[5]Diaz,A.J.Pijoan-Mas and J.Rios-Rull.Precautionary Savings and Wealth Distribution under Habit Formation Preferences[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2003(50):1257-1291.
[6]Lettau,M.and H.Uhlig.Can Habit Formation Be Reconciled with Business Cycle Facts[J].Review of Economic Dynamics,2000(3):79-99.
[7]Carroll,C.,G.Overland and D.Weil.Saving and Growth with Habit Formation[J].American Economic Review,2000(90):341-355.
[8]Fuhrer,J.Habit Formation in Consumption and Its Implications for Monetary Policy Models[J].American Economic Review,2000(90):367-390.
[9]崔海燕,杭斌.收入差距、习惯形成与城镇居民消费行为[J].管理工程学报,2014(3):135-140.
[10]武晓利,龚敏.家庭消费行为变迁、经济波动与居民消费率-基于Bayes估计的DSGE模型[J].经济问题,2014(6):30-35.
[11]陈凯,杭斌.中国城镇居民消费习惯形成的原因探索-基于受约束消费的一种解释[J].消费经济,2014(2):37-45.
[12]凌晨,张安全.习惯形成下中国城乡居民预防性储蓄研究[J].统计研究,2015(2).
[13]翟天昶,胡冰川.农村居民食品消费习惯形成效应演进研究[J].中国农村经济,2017(8):61-74.
[15]艾春荣,汪伟.习惯偏好下的中国居民消费的过度敏感性[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008(11):98-114.
[16]余永定,李军.中国居民消费函数的理论与验证[J].中国社会科学,2000(1)):123-133.
[17]叶海云.试论流动性约束,短视行为与我国消费需求疲软的关系[J].经济研究,2000(11):39-44.
[18]Dynan,Karen E.,Habit formation in consumer preferences:evidence from panel data[J].American Economic Review,2000(90):391-406.
[19]崔海燕.习惯形成下中国城乡居民消费行为[D].山西财经大学,2012.
[20]Echevareia,C.Change in sectoral composition associated with economic growth[J].International Economic Review,1997(38):431-452.
(1)上述过程参见Dynan(2000)。
(1)由于重庆、西藏数据缺省,故样本截面数量为29。
(2)本文变量序列的平稳性检验均采用相同单位根过程的LLC和不同单位根ADF-Fisher两种检验方法,而协整性检验使用Johansen检验。
(1)经济结构变迁停止可以从偏好的非一致性随时间逐渐衰减为一致性窥见一斑(Echevareia,1997)[20]。
[2][14]Ryder,J.and G.Heal.Optimal Growth with Intertemporally Dependent Preferences[J].Review of Economics Studies,1973(40):1-31.
[3]Deaton,A.Understanding Consumption[M].Oxford University Press,1992.
[4]Carroll,C.,G.Overland and D.Weil.Comparison Utility in a Growth Mode[J].Journal of Economic Growth.1997(2):339-367.
[5]Diaz,A.J.Pijoan-Mas and J.Rios-Rull.Precautionary Savings and Wealth Distribution under Habit Formation Preferences[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2003(50):1257-1291.
[6]Lettau,M.and H.Uhlig.Can Habit Formation Be Reconciled with Business Cycle Facts[J].Review of Economic Dynamics,2000(3):79-99.
[7]Carroll,C.,G.Overland and D.Weil.Saving and Growth with Habit Formation[J].American Economic Review,2000(90):341-355.
[8]Fuhrer,J.Habit Formation in Consumption and Its Implications for Monetary Policy Models[J].American Economic Review,2000(90):367-390.
[9]崔海燕,杭斌.收入差距、习惯形成与城镇居民消费行为[J].管理工程学报,2014(3):135-140.
[10]武晓利,龚敏.家庭消费行为变迁、经济波动与居民消费率-基于Bayes估计的DSGE模型[J].经济问题,2014(6):30-35.
[11]陈凯,杭斌.中国城镇居民消费习惯形成的原因探索-基于受约束消费的一种解释[J].消费经济,2014(2):37-45.
[12]凌晨,张安全.习惯形成下中国城乡居民预防性储蓄研究[J].统计研究,2015(2).
[13]翟天昶,胡冰川.农村居民食品消费习惯形成效应演进研究[J].中国农村经济,2017(8):61-74.
[15]艾春荣,汪伟.习惯偏好下的中国居民消费的过度敏感性[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008(11):98-114.
[16]余永定,李军.中国居民消费函数的理论与验证[J].中国社会科学,2000(1)):123-133.
[17]叶海云.试论流动性约束,短视行为与我国消费需求疲软的关系[J].经济研究,2000(11):39-44.
[18]Dynan,Karen E.,Habit formation in consumer preferences:evidence from panel data[J].American Economic Review,2000(90):391-406.
[19]崔海燕.习惯形成下中国城乡居民消费行为[D].山西财经大学,2012.
[20]Echevareia,C.Change in sectoral composition associated with economic growth[J].International Economic Review,1997(38):431-452.
(1)上述过程参见Dynan(2000)。
(1)由于重庆、西藏数据缺省,故样本截面数量为29。
(2)本文变量序列的平稳性检验均采用相同单位根过程的LLC和不同单位根ADF-Fisher两种检验方法,而协整性检验使用Johansen检验。
(1)经济结构变迁停止可以从偏好的非一致性随时间逐渐衰减为一致性窥见一斑(Echevareia,1997)[20]。