基于MIKE11的三峡库区洪水演进模拟
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摘要
建立三峡水利枢纽洪水预报系统,对工程经济效益的充分发挥及长江中下游的防洪减灾具有重大意义。本文针对三峡水利枢纽洪水预报系统中的库区洪水演进模拟部分进行研究:以MIKE11为基础,区间入流采用分布式水文模型模拟结果,分别采用控制三峡坝前水位和控制三峡出库流量两种边界条件建立模型。控制坝前水位的模拟结果显示,在2006-2011年汛期模拟的确定性系数均超过0.90,可以满足业务上对洪水预报的精度要求。控制出库流量的模拟经过实时校正后,对坝前水位峰值模拟效果良好,2010-2011年汛期平均模拟误差约0.25m。
It is of great significance to establish a suitable flood forecasting system for the Three Gorges reservoir for the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River flood control and disaster mitigation and give full play to the economic benefits. The aim of this paper is to investigate the flood routing part of the flood forecasting system for the Three Gorges Reservoir. Two types of boundary conditions were proposed for different operation rules based on MIKE11. One is controlling the water level fluctuation at the dam site, and the other is controlling the dam release. Modeling during the flood season 2006 through 2011, all determinant coefficients of the results from the water level fluctuation controlling model are higher than 0.90, which means this model meets the accuracy evaluation criteria for flood forecasting. After real-time correction, the dam release controlling model also performed well. The average error between modeled and observed water levels is about 0.25m during the flood season from 2010 to 2011.
It is of great significance to establish a suitable flood forecasting system for the Three Gorges reservoir for the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River flood control and disaster mitigation and give full play to the economic benefits. The aim of this paper is to investigate the flood routing part of the flood forecasting system for the Three Gorges Reservoir. Two types of boundary conditions were proposed for different operation rules based on MIKE11. One is controlling the water level fluctuation at the dam site, and the other is controlling the dam release. Modeling during the flood season 2006 through 2011, all determinant coefficients of the results from the water level fluctuation controlling model are higher than 0.90, which means this model meets the accuracy evaluation criteria for flood forecasting. After real-time correction, the dam release controlling model also performed well. The average error between modeled and observed water levels is about 0.25m during the flood season from 2010 to 2011.
引文
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[7]王佰伟,李哲,田富强,杨大文.基于物理机制的分布式水文模型对三峡区间径流的模拟[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2011,(2).WANG Baiwei,LI Zhe,TIAN Fuqiang,YANG Dawen et al.Physically distributed hydrological model simulations of runoff in the Three Gorges Region[J].Journal of Tsinghua University(Sci&Tech),2011,(2).(in Chinese)
[8]郭延祥,金勇.水文水动力学耦合模型在三峡梯级调度中的应用[J].人民长江,2010,(7).GUO Yanxiang,JIN Yong et al.Application of coupled hydrologic and hydro-dynamic models in TGP cascade operation[J].Yangtze River,2010,(7).(in Chinese)
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[10]李哲,杨大文,田富强.基于地面雨情信息的长江三峡区间洪水预报研究[J].水力发电学报,2013,v.32;No.13801:44-49+62.LI Zhe,YANG Dawen,TIAN Fuqiang.Flood forecast for Three Gorges region of the Yangtze based on ground-observed rainfall[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2013,v.32;No.13801:44-49+62.(in Chinese)
[11]段唯鑫,闵要武,陈力,冯宝飞.长江上游梯级水库建成后的三峡水情预报[J].人民长江,2011,(4).DUAN Weixin,MIN Yaowu,CHEN Li,FENG Baofei et al.Hydrologic forecast in TGP area after completion of cascade reservoirs in upper Yangtze River[J].Yangtze River,2011,(4).(in Chinese)
[12]Danish Hydraulic Institute(DHI).MIKEII:A Modeling System for Rivers and Channels Reference Manual[R].DHI.2005.
[13]王领元.丹麦MIKE11水动力模块在河网模拟计算中的应用研究[J].中国水运(学术版),2007,(02):106-107.WANG Lingyuan et al.Denmark MIKE11 hydrodynamic module in the application of river network simulation research[J].China Water Transport,2007,(02):106-107.(in Chinese)
[14]徐祖信,卢士强.平原感潮河网水动力模型研究[J].水动力学研究与进展(A辑),2003,(02):176-181.XU Zuxin,LU Shiqiang et al.Hydrodynamic model for tidal river network[J].Journal of Hydrodynamics,2003,(02):176-181.(in Chinese)
[15]GB/T 22482-2008,水文情报预报规范[S].GB/T 22482-2008,Standard for hydrological information and hydrological forecasting[S].(in Chinese)
[16]周建军.三峡水库蓄水后水库、径流、泥沙、运行和水库泥沙数学模型验证等相关问题研究.清华大学水利系研究报告,2005ZHOU Jianjun et al.Some problems about runoff,sediment,operation and sediment mathematical model calibration after water storage of the Three Gorges Reservoir[R].Department of Hydraulic Engineering,Tsinghua University,2005.(in Chinese)
[17]刘霆,王荣新.丰满水库通过不同途径计算的出库流量可信度分析[J].吉林水利,2002,(12):18-23.LIU Ting,WANG Rongxin et al.Authenticity analysis on storage outflow of Fengman reservoir calculating with various methods[J].Jilin Water Resources,2002,(12):18-23.(in Chinese)
[18]王佰伟,田富强,胡和平.三峡区间入流对三峡库区洪峰的影响分析[J].中国科学:技术科学,2011,(07):981-991.WANG Baiwei,TIAN Fuqiang,HU Heping.Analysis of the effect of regional lateral inflow on the flood peak of the Three Gorges Reservoir.Sci China Tech Sci,2011,(07):981-991.(in Chinese)
[2]赵云发,张继顺,刘志武.三峡工程实施洪水管理体系探讨[J].水电自动化与大坝监测,2007,02:4-7.ZHAO Yunfa,ZHANG Jishun,LIU Zhiwu et al.Discussion on flood management system for Three Gorges Project[J].Hydropower Automation and Dam Monitoring,2007,02:4-7.(in Chinese)
[3]王永文,吴敦银,喻中文.三峡水库区间流域实时水文预报系统研究[J].江西水利科技,2008,(4).WANG Yongwen,WU Dunyin,YU Zhongwen et al.The research of hydrology forecasting proposal program on real time runoff and flood in the Three Gorges Reservoir area[J].Jiangxi Hydraulic Science&Technology,2008,(4).(in Chinese)
[4]李春红,王建平,王玉华,桑联秀.三峡水库洪水预报方案设计——以岷江流域为例[J].水电自动化与大坝监测,2010,(05):78-80+84.LI Chunhong,WANG Jianping,WANG Yuhua,SANG Lianxiu et al,The Three Gorges Reservoir flood forecast scheme design of Minjiang river[J].Hydropower plant automation,2010,(05):78-80+84.(in Chinese)
[5]王船海,郭丽君,芮孝芳,孔凡哲.三峡区间入库洪水实时预报系统研究[J].水科学进展,2003,(6).WANG Chuanhai,GUO Lijun,RUI Xiaofang,KONG Fanzhe,et al.Study on real-time flood forecasting system for the Three Gorges Reservoir[J].Advances in Water Resources,2003,(6).(in Chinese)
[6]许继军,杨大文,丁金华,雷志栋.空间嵌套式流域水文模型的初步研究——以三峡水库入库洪水预报为例[J].水利学报,2007,(S1):365-371.XU Jijun,YANG Dawen,DING Jinhua,LEI Zhidong et al.Development of space-nested watershed hydrological model and its application to floods forecasting of Three Gorges reservoir[J].Shuili Xuebao,2007,(S1):365-371.(in Chinese)
[7]王佰伟,李哲,田富强,杨大文.基于物理机制的分布式水文模型对三峡区间径流的模拟[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2011,(2).WANG Baiwei,LI Zhe,TIAN Fuqiang,YANG Dawen et al.Physically distributed hydrological model simulations of runoff in the Three Gorges Region[J].Journal of Tsinghua University(Sci&Tech),2011,(2).(in Chinese)
[8]郭延祥,金勇.水文水动力学耦合模型在三峡梯级调度中的应用[J].人民长江,2010,(7).GUO Yanxiang,JIN Yong et al.Application of coupled hydrologic and hydro-dynamic models in TGP cascade operation[J].Yangtze River,2010,(7).(in Chinese)
[9]许继军,杨大文,蔡治国.分布式水文模型结合雷达测雨用于三峡区间的洪水预报[J].长江科学院院报,2007,(6).XU Jijun,YANG Dawen,CAI Zhiguo et al.Distributed hydrological model combining with radar rainfall data for regional flood forecast of Three Gorges[J].Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute,2007,(6).(in Chinese)
[10]李哲,杨大文,田富强.基于地面雨情信息的长江三峡区间洪水预报研究[J].水力发电学报,2013,v.32;No.13801:44-49+62.LI Zhe,YANG Dawen,TIAN Fuqiang.Flood forecast for Three Gorges region of the Yangtze based on ground-observed rainfall[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2013,v.32;No.13801:44-49+62.(in Chinese)
[11]段唯鑫,闵要武,陈力,冯宝飞.长江上游梯级水库建成后的三峡水情预报[J].人民长江,2011,(4).DUAN Weixin,MIN Yaowu,CHEN Li,FENG Baofei et al.Hydrologic forecast in TGP area after completion of cascade reservoirs in upper Yangtze River[J].Yangtze River,2011,(4).(in Chinese)
[12]Danish Hydraulic Institute(DHI).MIKEII:A Modeling System for Rivers and Channels Reference Manual[R].DHI.2005.
[13]王领元.丹麦MIKE11水动力模块在河网模拟计算中的应用研究[J].中国水运(学术版),2007,(02):106-107.WANG Lingyuan et al.Denmark MIKE11 hydrodynamic module in the application of river network simulation research[J].China Water Transport,2007,(02):106-107.(in Chinese)
[14]徐祖信,卢士强.平原感潮河网水动力模型研究[J].水动力学研究与进展(A辑),2003,(02):176-181.XU Zuxin,LU Shiqiang et al.Hydrodynamic model for tidal river network[J].Journal of Hydrodynamics,2003,(02):176-181.(in Chinese)
[15]GB/T 22482-2008,水文情报预报规范[S].GB/T 22482-2008,Standard for hydrological information and hydrological forecasting[S].(in Chinese)
[16]周建军.三峡水库蓄水后水库、径流、泥沙、运行和水库泥沙数学模型验证等相关问题研究.清华大学水利系研究报告,2005ZHOU Jianjun et al.Some problems about runoff,sediment,operation and sediment mathematical model calibration after water storage of the Three Gorges Reservoir[R].Department of Hydraulic Engineering,Tsinghua University,2005.(in Chinese)
[17]刘霆,王荣新.丰满水库通过不同途径计算的出库流量可信度分析[J].吉林水利,2002,(12):18-23.LIU Ting,WANG Rongxin et al.Authenticity analysis on storage outflow of Fengman reservoir calculating with various methods[J].Jilin Water Resources,2002,(12):18-23.(in Chinese)
[18]王佰伟,田富强,胡和平.三峡区间入流对三峡库区洪峰的影响分析[J].中国科学:技术科学,2011,(07):981-991.WANG Baiwei,TIAN Fuqiang,HU Heping.Analysis of the effect of regional lateral inflow on the flood peak of the Three Gorges Reservoir.Sci China Tech Sci,2011,(07):981-991.(in Chinese)
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