汽车领域用铂替代钯——不是“要不要”,而是“什么时候”的问题
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摘要
2017年,钯有史以来第二次比铂还贵。由于铂相对于钯的新价格优势,我们研究了把它用在汽油车催化转化器上的可能性。汽油车和油电混合动力汽车的销量预计将持续增长,这应该会促使该领域的钯供应愈加紧张。我们认为钯供应的增长,包括原矿开采和回收在内,不太可能满足下一个十年里不断增长的钯需求。基本的经济理论表明这将导致汽车领域的需求受抑,汽车制造商将不得不减少每辆车的钯用量。在催化转化器中使用铂替代钯看起来对汽车公司是最切合实际的途径,在符合减排规定的同时减少钯用量。虽然在汽油催化转化器中使用铂还有一些壁垒,不过我们认为这些是可以克服的并且相信汽车催化剂行业的钯总需求中至少25%可以轻而易举地被铂替代。虽然用铂替代汽油车催化剂中的钯的过程势必会困难重重,不过我们认为2020年初有望开始商用。
In 2017,palladium became more expensive than platinum for only the second time ever.Given platinum’s newfound price advantage over palladium,we examine the case for its use in catalytic converters for gasoline vehicles.Gasoline and gasoline hybrid electric vehicle sales are forecast to continue growing and this should increase demand for palladium in an already tight sector.We do not think it possible for palladium supply,both from mining and recycling,to increase sufficiently to meet the growing demand for palladium over the next decade or so.Basic economic theory suggests that this will lead to demand destruction in the automotive sector and that car manufacturers will have to use less palladium per vehicle.Using platinum in catalytic converters in place of palladium appears the most realistic way for car companies to meet emissions regulations while simultaneously reducing the use of palladium.Whilst there are barriers to the use of platinum in gasoline catalytic converters,we think these can be overcome and believe that at least 25%of gross palladium demand from the autocatalyst sector could readily be replaced by platinum.Although the process of substitution of platinum for palladium in gasoline autocatalysts will no doubt be challenging,we think it will begin to take place on a commercial basis during the early 2020s.
In 2017,palladium became more expensive than platinum for only the second time ever.Given platinum’s newfound price advantage over palladium,we examine the case for its use in catalytic converters for gasoline vehicles.Gasoline and gasoline hybrid electric vehicle sales are forecast to continue growing and this should increase demand for palladium in an already tight sector.We do not think it possible for palladium supply,both from mining and recycling,to increase sufficiently to meet the growing demand for palladium over the next decade or so.Basic economic theory suggests that this will lead to demand destruction in the automotive sector and that car manufacturers will have to use less palladium per vehicle.Using platinum in catalytic converters in place of palladium appears the most realistic way for car companies to meet emissions regulations while simultaneously reducing the use of palladium.Whilst there are barriers to the use of platinum in gasoline catalytic converters,we think these can be overcome and believe that at least 25%of gross palladium demand from the autocatalyst sector could readily be replaced by platinum.Although the process of substitution of platinum for palladium in gasoline autocatalysts will no doubt be challenging,we think it will begin to take place on a commercial basis during the early 2020s.
引文
[1]MARTYN TWIGG.Twenty Five Years of Autocatalysts(汽车催化剂的二十五年)[R/OL].Johnson Matthey:1999.https://www.technology.matthey.com/art icle/43/4/168-171.
[2]International Platinum Group Metals Association(国际铂族金属协会).Autocatalyst Factsheet(汽车催化剂资料)[EB/OL].2018.https://ipa-news.com/assets/susta inability/Autocatalyst%20Fact%20Sheet_LR.pdf?PHPSESSID=2320345af28d94c3f24934dd0a49f0bb.
[3]COOPER J.,BEECHAM J.A Study of Platinum Group Metals in Three-Way Autocatalysts(汽车三元催化剂领域消费的铂族金属研究)[J].Platinum Metals Review,2013,57(4):281-288.https://www.technolog y.matthey.com/article/57/4/281-288.
[4]Johnson Matthey May 2018 report(庄信万丰2018年5月报告)[EB/OL].http://www.platinum.matthey.com/d ocuments/new-item/pgm%20market%20reports/pgm_mar ket_report_may_2018.pdf.
[5]Bloomberg New Energy Finance 2018 report(彭博新能源财经2018年报告)[R/OL].https://bnef.turtl.co/stor y/evo2018?teaser=true.
[2]International Platinum Group Metals Association(国际铂族金属协会).Autocatalyst Factsheet(汽车催化剂资料)[EB/OL].2018.https://ipa-news.com/assets/susta inability/Autocatalyst%20Fact%20Sheet_LR.pdf?PHPSESSID=2320345af28d94c3f24934dd0a49f0bb.
[3]COOPER J.,BEECHAM J.A Study of Platinum Group Metals in Three-Way Autocatalysts(汽车三元催化剂领域消费的铂族金属研究)[J].Platinum Metals Review,2013,57(4):281-288.https://www.technolog y.matthey.com/article/57/4/281-288.
[4]Johnson Matthey May 2018 report(庄信万丰2018年5月报告)[EB/OL].http://www.platinum.matthey.com/d ocuments/new-item/pgm%20market%20reports/pgm_mar ket_report_may_2018.pdf.
[5]Bloomberg New Energy Finance 2018 report(彭博新能源财经2018年报告)[R/OL].https://bnef.turtl.co/stor y/evo2018?teaser=true.