Trends analysis for temperature in the JRB
- 作者：Shunjiu WangXinli Zhang
- 会议时间：2012-09-01
- 关键词：Climate change ; Temperature ; Mann-Kendall test ; Trend ; The Jinsha River Basin
- 作者单位：Shunjiu Wang(Institute of Plateau Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Chengdu 610072,PR China)Xinli Zhang(Business School,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,PR China)
- 母体文献：第29届中国气象学会年会论文集
- 会议名称：第29届中国气象学会年会
- 会议地点：沈阳
- 主办单位：中国气象学会
- 语种：chi
摘要
On the basis of the mean annual and seasonal temperature from 30 meteorological stations in the Jinsha River Basin (JRB) from 1961 to 2008,the temperature trends are analyzed by using Mann-Kendall (MK) test and linear trend analysis.There is an increasing trend in mean annual and seasonal temperature in the JRB for the period of 1961-2008,and the increasing trends in winter seem more significant than those in the other three seasons.The mean annual temperature has increased by 0.0158℃/yr during the last 48 years.There are more than 70% of stations exhibiting increasing trends for annual and seasonal temperature.The increasing trends in the river source and upper reaches are more dominant than those in the middle and lower reaches.The largest increase magnitude occurred in the low temperature area,and the largest decrease magnitude occurred in the high temperature area.The decreasing trends are mainly characterized for the maximum temperature time series,and summer is the only season showing a slight and insignificant increasing trend.All the time series showed a statistically significant increasing trend at the level of α=0.05 for the minimum temperature time series.As a whole,the increasing magnitude of the minimum temperature is significantly greater than the decreasing magnitude of the maximum temperature.