Time-scales in futures research and forecasting

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• 作者：Gö ; ran Nordlund ; ^{goran.nordlund@pp.inet.fi}
• 关键词：Futures research ; Time-scales ; Foresight horizons
• 刊名：Futures
• 出版年：2012
• 期刊代码：13_00163287
• 类别：bus
• 出版时间：May, 2012
• 卷：44
• 期：4
• 页码：408-414
• 文件大小：195 K

摘要

In this article a study is presented of the ways in which some well-known futurists have considered time-scales in their central works, looking too at a few frequently applied forecasting methodologies. It is found, that there is obviously yet no common view of the extent of the time ahead meant for the terms future and futures and in using the time-horizon specifications, such as short-term and long-term. A survey of how time-scales are taken note of and presented in individual futures research articles is also given.

On the basis of the study and survey made, the conclusions list three recommendations, which could be taken into consideration in futures studies.