Developing a cloud model based risk assessment methodology for tunnel-induced damage to existing pipelines

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• 作者：Limao Zhang (1) (2)
  Xianguo Wu (1)
  Queqing Chen (1)
  Miroslaw J. Skibniewski (2) (3)
  Jingbing Zhong (1)
  
  1. School of Civil Engineering and Mechanics ; Huazhong University of Science and Technology ; Wuhan ; 430074 ; Hubei ; China
  2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering ; University of Maryland ; College Park ; MD ; 20742-3021 ; USA
  3. Institute of Theoretical and Applied Informatics ; Polish Academy of Sciences ; Warsaw ; Poland
  
• 关键词：Cloud model ; Risk assessment ; Existing pipelines ; Tunneling environments ; Case study
• 刊名：Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：February 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：29
• 期：2
• 页码：513-526
• 全文大小：1,357 KB
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• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Environment
  Mathematical Applications in Environmental Science
  Mathematical Applications in Geosciences
  Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes
  Statistics for Engineering, Physics, Computer Science, Chemistry and Geosciences
  Numerical and Computational Methods in Engineering
  Waste Water Technology, Water Pollution Control, Water Management and Aquatic Pollution
  
• 出版者：Springer Berlin / Heidelberg
• ISSN：1436-3259

文摘

This paper presents a cloud model (CM) based approach with step-by-step procedures for risk assessment of existing pipelines in tunneling environments (RAEPTE), where CM provides a basis for uncertainty transforming between qualitative concepts and their quantitative expressions. An evaluation index system of multiple layers and attributes is established for RAEPTE based upon the tunnel-induced pipeline failure mechanism analysis. The evaluation result is assessed by the correlation with CMs of each risk level. A confidence indicator is proposed to illustrate the reliability of evaluating results. Risk analysis for ten underground buried pipelines adjacent to the construction of Wuhan Metro Line Two in China is shown in a case study. Comparisons between different evaluation methods are further discussed according to results. The proposed approach is verified to be a more competitive solution, where the uncertainties of fuzziness and randomness are incorporated in the risk assessment system. This approach can serve as a decision tool for the safety risk assessment in other similar projects, and to increase the likelihood of a successful project in an uncertain environment.