China’s natural gas production and consumption analysis based on the multicycle Hubbert model and rolling Grey model

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• 作者：Jianzhou Wang^a ; Haiyan Jiang^b ; ^{jianghy2012@lzu.edu.cn" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; Qingping Zhou^b ; Jie Wu^b ; ^c ; Shanshan Qin^b
• 关键词：GW ; gigawatt ; BP ; British Petroleum ; Mtoe ; million tons oil equivalent ; tcm ; trillion cubic meters ; bcm ; billion cubic meters ; URR ; ultimate recoverable reserves ; PCMACP ; polynomial curve and moving average combination projection ; FTW estimation ; Fermat&ndash ; Torricelli&ndash ; Weber estimation ; ARIMA ; autoregressive integrated moving average ; ANNs ; artificial neural networks ; FIS ; fuzzy inference system ; RBF ; radial basis function ; OLS ; ordinary least square ; ANFIS-SFA ; adaptive network-based fuz
• 刊名：Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：January 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：53
• 期：Complete
• 页码：1149-1167
• 全文大小：7882 K

文摘

As fossil fuels reserves deplete rapidly and the low-carbon economy develops expeditiously, especially in China, natural gas as a clean and alternative energy is underway to help meet increased energy needs and climate needs. Therefore, accurate forecasts of natural gas production and consumption have been a necessary task for policy making in the coming years. This paper presents a review of natural gas forecasting models. The multicycle Hubbert model is employed to forecast China’s annual nature gas production and to determine the peak production, the peak year and the future production trends based on several different URR scenarios. Moreover, a small-sample effective rolling GM(1,1) model is proposed for the first time to forecast exponential natural gas consumption with different lengths of data sets. Then, the grey relationship analysis is used to select the best consumption curve in correspond with different URR scenarios. The empirical result shows that the supply–demand gap will be larger and larger in the future, with a minimum gap of 22 bcm in 2011 and 225 bcm in 2050, with a maximum gap of 31 bcm in 2011 and 807 bcm in 2050, which indicates that the natural gas production in China cannot meet the rising consumption. Therefore, policy measures must be taken to ameliorate the situation, including expanding natural gas imports, increasing unconventional natural gas production, complementing the gap with other energy resources and combining energy saving with emission reduction. Accurate forecasting of natural gas production and consumption can provide the basis for decision making and help the government generate new significant policies.