Context scenarios and their usage for the construction of socio-technical energy scenarios
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- 作者：Wolfgang Weimer-Jehlea ; wolfgang.weimer-jehle@zirius.uni-stuttgart.de" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Jens Buchgeisterb ; jens.buchgeister@kit.edu" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Wolfgang Hausera ; wolfgang.hauser@zirius.uni-stuttgart.de" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Hannah Kosowa ; hannah.kosow@zirius.uni-stuttgart.de" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Tobias Naeglerc ; tobias.naegler@dlr.de" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Witold-Roger Poganietzb ; poganietz@kit.edu" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Thomas Preggerc ; thomas.pregger@dlr.de" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Sigrid Prehofera ; sigrid.prehofer@zirius.uni-stuttgart.de" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Andreas von Recklinghausenb ; andreas.von.recklinghausen@mailbox.org" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Jens Schipplb ; jens.schippl@kit.edu" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Stefan Vö ; geled ; s.voegele@fz-juelich.de" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author
- 关键词：Energy scenario ; Energy modeling ; Cross-impact balance analysis ; Socio-technical scenario ; Context scenarios
- 刊名：Energy
- 出版年：2016
- 出版时间：15 September 2016
- 年：2016
- 卷：111
- 期：Complete
- 页码：956-970
- 全文大小：1721 K
文摘
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Model-based energy scenarios depend on assumptions about the embedding society.
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We propose a method to address the complex uncertainty of these assumptions.
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The method combines elements of qualitative and quantitative systems analysis.
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This eventually leads to the development of socio-technical energy scenarios.
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A concept demonstration shows the practical application of the method.
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