A Judgement on the Characteristics of Future Eruption from Katla Volcano, Iceland
详细信息
- 责任者：Chen Xiaowen (Key Laboratory of Active Tectonics and Volcano ; Institute of Geology ; CEA ; Beijing 100029 ; China) ; Wei Haiquan
- 刊名：Earth Science
- 出版年：2013
- 卷期：38(2)
- 关键词：火山活动 ; volcanicity ; 冰岛 ; Iceland
- 页码：p.329-338
- 图表：illus., 1 table, 19 refs.
- 分类号：0801
- issnNo：ISSN1000-2383
- isbnNo：CN42-1233/P
摘要
Katla volcano shows an increased level of unrest recently.Therefore people are increasingly more concerned with the probability, scale and pattern of eruption from Katla volcano, and the potential influence as well. We deduce preliminarily the possible behavior pattern and the effect of the Katla volcano for its future eruption according to the speech "the past is a key to the present", based on collecting some published materials from international journals and internet. According to the eruption history of Katla volcano, a probability of volcanic eruption in 2013 is roughly 30%. The magnitude of next eruption of Katla should be VEI 4, but VEI 5 is also possible. Its eruption pattern has 3 possibilities: the first one is an explosive eruption that breaks through the thick ice cover; the second one is magmatic eruption; the third one is a "failed eruption". From the available information, it indicates that this unrest will be most likely to end up with no eruption.